The price of a great many assets will crash, out of proportion to the decline in demand.
Oil is the poster child of the forces driving massive deflation: overcapacity / oversupply and a collapse in demand. Overcapacity / oversupply and a collapse in demand are not limited to the crude oil market; rather, they are the dominant realities in the global economy.
Yes, there are shortages in a few high-demand areas such as PPE (personal protective equipment), but across the entire spectrum of global supply and demand, there is nothing but a vast sea of overcapacity / oversupply and a systemic decline in demand as far as the eye can see.
Here’s a partial list of commodities that are in Overcapacity / oversupply:
1. Overvalued assets
2. Overpriced income streams (as income craters, so will the asset generating the income)
3. Labor: low-skill everywhere, high-skill in sectors experiencing systemic collapse in demand
4. AirBnB and other vacation rental properties
5. Overpriced flats, condos and houses
6. Overpriced rental apartments
7. Overpriced commercial office space
8. Overpriced retail space
9. Overpriced used vehicles
10. Overpriced collectibles
I think you get the idea.
Should China restart its export factories, then almost everything being manufactured will immediately be in oversupply, as the global export sector was plagued with mass overcapacity long before the Covid-19 pandemic crushed demand.
Incomes will crater as revenues and profits crash, small businesses close their doors, never to re-open, local governments tighten spending, and whatever competition still exists will relentlessly push the price of labor, goods and services lower.
Globalization has generated hyper-specialization in local and regional economies, stripping them of resilience. Fully exposed to the demand flows of a globalized class of consumers with surplus discretionary income, regions specialized in tourism, manufacturing, commodity mining, etc.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…