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Olduvai III: Catacylsm
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The Next 8.6-Year Wave will be Inflationary

The Next 8.6-Year Wave will be Inflationary 

All the real science is warning that there is a reasonable chance that we are headed into a much colder period ahead. This will have an impact on food prices and out computer models have been warning that the next wave of the Economic Confidence Model should be an inflationary wave. Even a new study from  nature.com said: “The recent prolonged solar minimum and subsequent weak solar cycle 24 have led to suggestions that the grand solar maximum may be at an end.”

The next 8.6-year wave beginning in January should produce a collapse in confidence in governments which will result in a shift from Public to Private assets, but then on top of this, we see a shortage in agricultural markets adding to the inflationary wave coming. Then add the Monetary Crisis and Sovereign Debt Crisis cycles and we end up with some very interesting impacts during the next wave.

Chaos of Weather Record Heat Wave Coming – Fraud of Linear Predictions

Chaos of Weather Record Heat Wave Coming – Fraud of Linear Predictions 

This weekend the forecasts are calling for a blistering, dangerous heat wave which is poised to scorch the southeastern U.S. over the Memorial Day weekend. I warned that our computer was showing a sharp increase in volatility in the weather. The winters would spike to new record lows and then the summers would spike to scorching highs. Once again, this is not my personal opinion. If you simply input the data this is what comes up – patterns.

The pro-Global Warming crowd love to send me hate-mail arguing I am not a meteorologist. I reply, neither is Al Gore – the father of Global Warming nonsense. There is far more hidden order to weather and collecting data since only 1850, manipulating it to pretend there is a linear trend and then claim the world will end in 12 years like AOC, begs a lot of question. Why do we need social programs? Stop all taxes including Social Security and let everyone enjoy life while they have it. Kids should drop out of school and enjoy life rather than get degrees they will never use. Why investigate Trump if there will be no presidency in 12 years? Nobody really believes stopping air traffic and driving cars will save the world in 12 years.


The linear analysis of weather used by the Global Warming crowd is complete nonsense and it threatens our way of life along with our future. During the 1950s, Edward N. Lorenz (1917-2008) observed that there was a cyclical non-linear nature to weather, yet the field relied upon linear statistical models in meteorology to do weather forecasting. Lorenz became the father of Chaos Theory. He was an American mathematician and meteorologist. Lorenz was certainly THE pioneer in Chaos Theory.

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The Great Fossil Cycle and US: Story of a Family

The Great Fossil Cycle and US: Story of a Family

Last week, I published a post on how the economic decline of Italy led me to move to a smaller house, abandoning the mansion that my parents had built during better times. Complementing that post, I thought I could repropose a post I had published in 2017, reproduced here with some minor modifications. You can find more data about the story of the Bardi family on the “Chimeras” blog.

My great-great grandfather, Ferdinando Bardi. The story of the branch of the Bardi family to which I belong is inextricably linked to the great world cycle of the fossil fuels. (this painting was made by Ferdinando’s son, Antonio)

There was a time, long ago, when the Bardis of Florence were rich and powerful, but that branch of the family disappeared with the end of the Renaissance. The most remote ancestors of mine that I can track were living during the early 19th century and they were all poor, probably very poor. But their life was to change with the great fossil revolution that had started in England in the 18th century. The consequences were to spill over to Italy in the centuries that followed.

My great-great grandfather Ferdinando (born in 1822) lived in an age when coal was just starting to become commonplace and people would still use whale oil to light up their homes. He was a soldier in the infantry of the Grand-Duke of Tuscany and then of the King of Italy, when Tuscany merged into the newly formed Kingdom of Italy, in 1861. The family lore says that Ferdinando fought with Garibaldi in Southern Italy, but there is no trace of him in the records as a volunteer of Garibaldi’s army. He may have fought there with the regular army, though.

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Still Snowing in the Heart of America – The Longer Winter & Shorter Summer Cycle

Still Snowing in the Heart of America – The Longer Winter & Shorter Summer Cycle 

COMMENT: Well you said this winter would be long and the summer shorter. It is still snowing here in the heart of America. It looks like your computer is correct again. Instead of funding research for billion dollars to pretend there is global warming, they should just subscribe to Socrates. Would save a heap of money.


REPLY: Of course you are right. However, the hand out billion grants so they can get studies to justify raising taxes to bring in $100 billion. They are not interested in the actual reliable forecast. There is no juice in that for them. They want more revenue. Unfortunately, if this summer is also short and winter returns rapidly in the fall, buy some electric-underwear. We are in for colder periods ahead into 2024.

Why Has Everything Turned Sour? Is it the Press? Or is the Press Part of the Cycle?

Why Has Everything Turned Sour? Is it the Press? Or is the Press Part of the Cycle? 

QUESTION: Hello Mr. Armstrong,
I´d like your opinion on this,
During 7 Decades in which our lives got better, longer, richer, safer, healthier, better educated, more peaceful and more stimulating. Even World poverty has decreased in a rate never seen before, still, news coverage got increasingly negative

What explanation could there be for this? Is it excessive competition for attention as media sources multiply or an excessive any deeper reasons? I compare it to Markets, seems to be similar like trading on news, which is impossible because when the news is the worst, usually its the low and when everything and everyone is optimistic its the high.

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ANSWER: Coming out of World War II, society really advanced in many ways from technology to medicine. This is the part of the societal cycle that is best to live in. Then what happens is corruption. The news becomes corrupt in sync with politics. I believe this becomes the case because news becomes institutionalized as it is owned by big firms who then direct the news to slant to their personal benefit. This is a funny skit on British News. It is so true here in the States as well. The Democrats love CNN and the Republicans love Fox. The news gravitates to a political slant and is no longer about news – it is always about selling more ads and pushing their propaganda like some religion handing out flowers in airports.

Yellow journalism was created by the battle between Pulitzer and Hearst. They created the Spanish American War to sell papers. Pulitzer’s name was worthless. To rehabilitate it he donated money to create the Pulitzer Prize for good journalism, which he never practiced.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Al Gore’s Global Warming Deliberate Fraud to Increase Governmental Power

Al Gore’s Global Warming Deliberate Fraud to Increase Governmental Power 

There is a serious question that no one wants to address. How did Al Gore create the global warming scare and earn hundreds of millions of dollars in the process? Before Al Gore, science was worried deeply about what we are experiencing today — global cooling. On April 28, 1975, Newsweek magazine published an article in which they sounded the alarm bell and proposed solutions to deliberately melt the ice caps:

“Climatologists are pessimistic that political leaders will take any positive action to compensate for the climatic change, or even to allay its effects. They concede that some of the more spectacular solutions proposed, such as melting thearcticc ice cap by covering it with black soot or diverting arctic rivers, might create problems far greater than those they solve. But the scientists see few signs that government leaders anywhere are even prepared to take the simple measures of stockpiling food or of introducing variables of climate uncertainty into economic projections of future food supplies.”

This sounds very similar to today’s proposed solution of putting particles in the atmosphere to deflect the sunlight to reduce global warming.  Indeed, TIME magazine’s January 31, 1977, cover featured the cover story, “The Big Freeze.” They reported that scientists were predicting that Earth’s average temperature could drop by 20 degrees fahrenheit. Their cited cause was, of course, that humans created global cooling. Then suddenly the climate cycles shifted and it began to warm up.

There was this core group of people who seemed to enjoy all the attention they were gathering by predicting the end of civilization caused by humans. As the temperatures began to warm, suddenly they had to switch the dire forecasts from global cooling caused by humans to global warming caused by humans.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Business Cycle & Why They Pretend it Cannot be Forecast

The Business Cycle & Why They Pretend it Cannot be Forecast 

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I have studied you Economic Confidence Model and found it to be extremely accurate in forecasting the business cycle. When I showed it to my professor here at ——— he responded that itis impossible to forecast the business cycle. He would not even engage in a conversation about it. Why are they so intimidated by your work?

Thank you

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ANSWER: What you have to understand is that IF it is possible to forecast the business cycle, then that means politics have to change. The entire system is based upon the proposition of vote for me and I will reduce unemployment and bring world peace unless I do not like the people. If you listen to Larry Summers, he states that if you could forecast the business cycle, that would be bad because it would become a self-fulfilling prophecy. He also states that the economy is far too complex, like weather, with way too many moving components that make it impossible to forecast. That means the door is open to manipulate the economy, as he suggested with negative interest rates. When that failed, he then discovered there was the zero interest boundary where people would withdraw their cash from banks and defeat his negative interest tool. He has thus advocated eliminating physical paper money to allow his negative interest rate idea to then work — so he maintains. He ignores, of course, the entire pension fund system.

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Climate Change & Commodities

Climate Change & Commodities 

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I love the fact that you look at everything from a pure cyclical perspective. Al Gore who started this whole mess was not a climatologist. He was a politician. You are 100% correct that people will believe what they want to believe. There is no talking to one of this idiots. When there is a food shortage, they will be the first to advocate taking food from those who did prepare. Did wheat rise in value during the Dust Bowl because of the decline in supply? They don’t have wheat charts that go back that far on ____ system.


ANSWER: You cannot forecast the future of anything in isolation. I only look at the cycles. The computer correlates absolutely everything including the weather. The correlation models show that we are heading into a colder period. This is when crops fail and the ground freezes as far down as two feet, which makes winter crops impossible. We are also heading into a solar minimum and that is when there are far more volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. All I can say is that it appears that when the ECM turns, the next wave will be back to an inflationary run and we should also see a rise in commodity prices. We have two major trends behind that: 1) weather, and 2) fiscal mismanagement resulting in currency value changes.

The Dust Bowl Rally in wheat was about 245% advance 420 to 1452. What also came into play, interestingly enough, was the devaluation of the dollar in 1934 from $20.67 for one ounce of gold to $35. That was effectively a near 70% devaluation of the dollar. We are approaching our Monetary Crisis Cycle, which will again mark the decline in purchasing power of world currencies. Just maybe we will see a very similar convergence of trends that took place during the Dust Bowl era.Categories:AgricultureClimate
Tags:Climate ChangeDust BowlGlobal Warming

Governments Are Sucking in Assets like a Black Hole

Governments Are Sucking in Assets like a Black Hole 

QUESTION: Hello Sir,
I am French and have been reading you for many years (I already read you while you published papers while you were very unfairly imprisoned).
I signed up for Socrates on 6th January and must thank you warmly for opening my eyes to the real state of the global economy and its cycles.
Unfortunately, I live in France and taxes weigh heavily on us. Unemployment is preponderant.

I do not think our President E.Macron knows exactly what he is doing by reforming our economy in his own way…
My question please:

You explained that the next crisis would be a debt crisis and that banks and the economy would be severely heckled.
So, I really think about quickly withdrawing my assets (about 50,000 euros) from the bank and I wonder if converting them into foreign currency and keeping them in a safe in my house would not be a good idea …

If the euro is devalued or disappears as I fear, would not it be smart to convert them as soon as possible into Swiss francs? Indeed, their economy seems stable and it is really a country apart, bordering on France. (Of course, I also thought about owning dollars and yen (although the yen inspires me less confidence)
Thanking you for everything you do for us,

ANSWER: Dollars are probably the best because the USA does not cancel currency as they do in Europe. Dollars from 1860s are still legal tender today. You might want to open an account in the USA, which ironically is not part of the tax reporting schemes. Therefore, you can have an account in the USA with no problem for probably the next 3 years. Governments are becoming like a black hole. They are sucking up all the money to sustain their existence.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Panic Cycles v Waterfall Events

Panic Cycles v Waterfall Events 

COMMENT: Hi There,
I suggest you do an article on the terminology you use.For example I noted that on your commentary on centamin Egypt you use the term waterfall pattern. You also you use the term panic cycle.An article on these words and their meaning would be helpful.


REPLY: We do have terminology is the Glossary on this site. The Waterfall Event is a term I coined to describe what I discovered in the study of the rise and fall of empires, nations, and city-states. This differs from a Panic Cycle which reflects just a short-term increase in volatility, which can exceed the previous session high and penetrate the previous session low or make a big move in one direction.  They do not imply the destruction of the system being observed or an individual market.

I have encountered the Waterfall Events such as the collapse of Venice to the 1931 Sovereign DebtCrisis where the foreign government bonds listed on the New York Stock Exchange simple defaulted and went to zero. Thus, the Waterfall is a sharp collapse that will unfold in a market with a decline of generally greater than 50%.

Why central banks cannot really Manage Anything

QUESTION: Marty you recently said that “the entire problem of lowering interest rates to ‘stimulate’ the economy demonstrates that central banks cannot really manage anything.” Is this statement really true?


ANSWER: Absolutely. There is a basic presumption in all human activity that somehow we possess the power to do anything be it end Global Warming or managing the economy. Yet neither has ever been accomplished. We assume that we MUST do something even if there is nothing we can actually do to reverse the trend. It is like what I just wrote about the Plunge Protection Team. Do you realize that every empire, nation, and city-state at some point realizes the end is near, yet they cannot prevent their own demise any more than we can prevent our own death.

“The Rediscovery of the Business Cycle – is a sign of the times. Not much more than a decade ago, in what now seems a more innocent age, the ‘New Economics’ had become orthodoxy. Its basic tenet, repeated in similar words in speech after speech, in article after article, was described by one of its leaders as ‘the conviction that business cycles were not inevitable, that government policy could and should keep the economy close to a path of steady real growth at a constant target rate of unemployment.’

Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker in his Rediscovery of the Business Cycle clearly stated the theory of managing the economy with Keynesian tools failed. When he tried sending interest rates cascading higher into 1981, he really altered the economy forever. There was a capo on interest rates known as the Usury Laws. On April 1st, 1980, the Depository Institutions Deregulation and Monetary Control Act of 1980 became effective.

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Climate Change & the Blame Game has been going on Since the 1890s

COMMENT: I really get annoyed by people who say well it has been warm here so what happens elsewhere is irrelevant. They are idiots and cannot see the whole and just want to blame humans for everything. I can see how our situation is hopeless when it comes to climate change.

All the best


ANSWER: Very true. I got one email saying even though the death toll in Wales is double that of the previous year from extreme cold, it was warmer here in Canada so you are just wrong about everything. Such people are unable to divorce themselves from their bias. We have a serious climate change unfolding that cyclically is on time. Ever since 1895, the media has alternated reporting between global cooling and warming scares and many times they have even been overlapping. Here are accounts from the press reporting both global cooling and warming between 1955 and 1961. From 1895 until the 1930s the media peddled a coming ice age. From the late 1920s until the 1960’s they warned of global warming. From the 1950s until the 1970s they warned us again of a coming ice age. This makes modern global warming the fourth estate’s fourth attempt to promote opposing climate change fears during the last 100 years.

Then we have the diehard Global Warming crowd who refuse to ever consider that just maybe they may be wrong and are doing exactly the same thing I encountered when doing research on the Great Depression. Back then, the claimed that the DUST BOWL permanently destroyed the “Middle West” and that all the soil blew away so there would NEVER AGAIN be farming in America. ALL the government “expert advice” blamed the catastrophe on mechanized agriculture because tractors had been in use for only a couple of decades.

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The Coming Mini Ice Age & Cyclical Movement of the Tropics Belt Itself

We have the most sophisticated and diverse client base than probably any institution covering more than 100 countries. Our business has been constructed upon one bedrock foundation – unbiased computer analysis. These forecasts are NEVER my personal opinion. There are plenty of people who seek to argue but fail to understand it is NOT ME! Just because someone claims to be a scientist and states for or against Global Warming, really does not add up to a lot for just as when you go visit a doctor, they always tell you to get a second “opinion” because that is all you are getting.

Previously, I have reported that NASA confirmed we are going into a cooling period – not warming. They have put out a forecast of declining sunspot activity. Now NASA has come out confirming what our computer has been forecasting. They have reported that as the sun is experiencing a rapid decline in sunspots, it is also dimming in brightness or energy output. NASA’s Spaceweather station has recorded during 2017, 96 days (27%) of observing the sun have been completely absent of sunspots.

While NASA has now confirmed that the outer atmosphere is getting cooler. In fact, one of the top NASA scientists has broken camp and warned that the surface temperature of the sun has collapsed so much, he fears a new Ice Age is upon us. Meanwhile, this has been the COLDEST Thanksgiving in 150 years! Interestingly, however, is that this sudden sharp decline in the energy output of the sun coincided with the 2015.75 turning point of the Economic Confidence Model.

I have previously warned that if this trend continues during the next winter, then we have exceeded any short-term reactionary trend and the weather appears poised to continue to get colder going into the distant future.

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Why do Cycles Work?

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Your analysis is really remarkable. When the Dow was making new highs in October you said it was not breaking out. Then you said it would correct to retest the monthly support. You even warned that the bulk of the decline was always before the holiday as fears would grow for what would happen after the market reopened. You always get the highs and you even named the day of the low this week the week before. How can your arrays do this? I know that they do. My question is have you put any effort into discovering why cycles work in the first place?


ANSWER: That is a question I get often and it seems to me to be up there with is there God and what is the meaning of life? All I can say is the foundation of EVERYTHING is a cycle. Here is how sound travels known as the Doppler effect.

Sunlight also travels in waves. Change the frequency and you get a different effect. There is a cycle to absolutely everything around us. The Arrays are composed of a correlation of 72 individual models. Then there is a global correlation to the frequencies of all other markets. So there is not a single cycle that you can reverse-engineer from an array. It just does not work that way. We simply do cycles differently than most people in the cyclical analysis arena.

So why do they work? Perhaps that is just the key to the universe itself. The earth travels around the universe and reaches the same spot once every 25,800 years. We also are born, we live, and then we die – the cycle of life. Then at the core of everything lies the fractal design within nature.

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Clash between Catastrophe and Uniformity – The Global Warming Conspiracy

Woolly Rhinoceros

Climate Change has existed throughout the history of our planet. When a Wool;y Rino was discovered frozen in Siberia intact back in 1774, that is the event that shook the scientific community. I have called this the Clash between Catastrophe and Uniformity which has produced an emotional issue corrupting scientific research for centuries as people try to create research that supports what they want to believe rather than what actually takes place. The idea that systems just collapse in a catastrophic manner can be disquieting to say the least. For this reason, uniformitarianism soothes the senses and brings order to the future dominated by uncertainty. All the analysis put out by the Global Warming conspiracy is simply a linear progression that projects a warming trend without any diversion – whereas no such trend can ever be identified in physics. This always ignores nature and the cyclical aspect of everything around us.

Yet, these two clashing schools of thought that lie at the core of just about everything from the Big Bang to Charles Darwin’s (1809-1882) Theory of Evolution, began with the discovery first in 1772 near Vilui, Siberia of an intact frozen Woolly Rhinoceros followed by the more famous discovery of a frozen Mammoth in 1787. You may be shocked, but these discoveries of frozen animals with grass still in their stomach, set in motion these two schools of thought since the evidence implied you could be eating lunch and suddenly find yourself frozen to be discovered by posterity.

Siberian Unicorn

There was yet a third animal known as the Siberian Unicorn which also roamed the region and is extinct today.In a recent study of Siberian Unicorn bone specimens were dated, which confirmed that the species actually survived until perhaps as late as 35,000 years ago. What killed it off was not humans, but Climate Change.

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Olduvai IV: Courage
In progress...

Olduvai II: Exodus
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