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In describing various economic train wrecks these last few weeks, I may have given the wrong impression about trains. I love riding the train on the East Coast or in Europe. They’re usually a safe and efficient way to travel. And I can sit and read and work, plus not deal with airport security. But in this series, I’m concerned about economic train wrecks, of which I foresee many coming before The Big One which I call The Great Reset, where all the debt, all over the world, will have to be “rationalized.” That probably won’t happen until the middle or end of the next decade. We have some time to plan, which is good because it’s all but inevitable now, without massive political will. And I don’t see that anywhere.

Unlike actual trains, we as individuals don’t have the option of choosing a different economy. We’re stuck with the one we have, and it’s barreling forward in a decidedly unsafe manner, on tracks designed and built a century ago. Today, we’ll review yet another way this train will probably veer off the tracks as we discuss the numerous public pension defaults I think are coming.

Last week, I described the massive global debt problem. As you read on, remember promises are a kind of debt, too. Public worker pension plans are massive promises. They don’t always show up on the state and local balance sheets correctly (or directly!), but they have a similar effect. Governments worldwide promised to pay certain workers certain benefits at certain times. That is debt, for all practical purposes.

If it’s debt, who are the lenders? The workers. They extended “credit” with their labor. The agreed-upon pension benefits are the interest they rightly expect to receive for lending years of their lives.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Will The Real Global Economy Please Stand Up”

June 11, 2018

“Will The Real Global Economy Please Stand Up”

To say I’ve become skeptical of “markets” and their movements is probably an understatement. However, rather than waste more time trying to make sense of these skewed markets, I believe real economic activity is more accurately represented by changing populations and their energy consumption. So today, we’ll play a little “To Tell The Truth”, an old television show where two imposters could lie but one contestant had to tell the truth. The celebs would ask questions and then attempt to pick which contestant was the real deal. I’ll lay out the data and let you determine how well this lines up with non-stop narrative of record market valuations and stories of strong economic activity.

I’ll start with Japan and work my up progressively larger. The population data is from the UN and I use the 15 to 60 year old population to avoid speculation about changing birth rates over the next fifteen years. Energy data is from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and their projections using their IEO’17 (International Energy Outlook, 2017) models.

Japan

Core population peaked 1993, declined 14% since (as of 2015), will decline 22% by 2030 and 33% by 2040.
Energy consumption peak 2006, declined 17% since
- My est. -25% by 2030, -30% by 2040
- IEO’17 est. +3% by 2030, unchanged by 2040.

Germany

Core population peaked 1995, declined 5% since, will decline 17% by 2030 and 19% by 2040.
Energy consumption peaked 2006, declined 14% since, will decline 22% by 2030 and 28% by 2040. IEO’17 data will be wrapped together for EU below.

Italy

Core population peaked 2005, declined 4% since. Will decline 17% by 2030 and 25% by 2040.
Energy consumption peaked 2005, declined 17% since. I estimate declines of 26% by 2030 and 32% by 2040.

Greece

Core population peaked 2006, declined 5% since. Will decline 15% by 2030, 29% by 2040.
Energy Consumption peaked 2007, declined 27% since. I estimate declines of 40% by 2030, 47% by 2040

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

What Patient Zero, Japan, Can Tell Us About China & The Developed World At Large

June 4, 2018

What Patient Zero, Japan, Can Tell Us About China & The Developed World At Large

To see the future, sometimes you have to look to the past. Japan is patient zero in the global epidemic of slowing growth and although Japan was assumed to be the emerging world power in the ’80’s, we now know better. The title of emergent power now rests with China…and for the same reasons it didn’t work out for Japan, it won’t work out for China. To make my case, I’ll use UN population data coupled with EIA total primary energy data (cumulative energy consumption from coal, oil, natural gas, nuclear, and renewables), plus EIA fore-ward looking forecast data (the International Energy Outlook, 2017 or IEO’17).

First, Japan.

The Japanese 15 to 60 year old population peaked in 1993 and declined over 15% by 2018. The core population will continue falling, down 24% by 2030, and 34% by 2040. Energy consumption growth began stalling in 1997, consumption peaked in 2006, and has declined 17% from the ’06 peak through 2015. However, the EIA estimates the falls seen since ’06 will cease shortly and energy consumption will stabilize through 2040.

The chart below breaks down the annual change in the 15 to 60 year old Japanese population versus the annual change in energy consumption. The twin deceleration should be fairly obvious.

Below, the actual data as above versus the EIA IEO’17 forecast. While the core population will fall at an even faster rate, the EIA forecasts energy consumption will stabilize (against all logical rationale)?!?

To round out the picture, the Japanese 15 to 60 year old population versus 60+ year old population. All growth is currently in the 60+ population until it too is projected to peak in 2040 and begin declining.

What does this mean for China?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Global Pension Gap Expected to Hit $400 Trillion: US Leads the Way

April 27, 2018

Global Pension Gap Expected to Hit $400 Trillion: US Leads the Way

The global pension gap of 8 nations is $70 trillion. The US alone is $38 trillion. By 2050 the total gap will hit $400T.

The Visual Capitalist reports The Pension Time Bomb: $400 Trillion by 2050. The above image is a small section of a huge pension infographic.

According to an analysis by the World Economic Forum (WEF), there was a combined retirement savings gap in excess of $70 trillion in 2015, spread between eight major economies: Canada, Australia, Netherlands, Japan, India, China, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
The WEF says the deficit is growing by $28 billion every 24 hours – and if nothing is done to slow the growth rate, the deficit will reach $400 trillion by 2050, or about five times the size of the global economy today.
In the United States, it is expected that the Social Security trust fund will run out by 2034. At that point, there will only be enough revenue coming in to pay out approximately 77% of benefits.

Worse Than You Think

Lance Roberts at Real Investment Advice added to the report in his take The Pension Crisis Is Worse Than You Think.

What follows are excerpts of Roberts’ excellent presentation, withoutblockquotes. His name will mark the end of his report.

Problem 1: Demographics

With pension funds already wrestling with largely underfunded liabilities, the shifting demographics are further complicating funding problems. One of the primary problems continues to be the decline in the ratio of workers per retiree as retirees are living longer (increasing the relative number of retirees), and lower birth rates (decreasing the relative number of workers.) However, this “support ratio” is not only declining in the U.S. but also in much of the developed world. This is due to two demographic factors: increased life expectancy coupled with a fixed retirement age, and a decrease in the fertility rate.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Debt-enabled asset bubbles on crash course with demographics

April 25, 2018

Debt-enabled asset bubbles on crash course with demographics

For anyone who may have been unconscious or in outer space for the last 20 years, here are the Coles Notes:

If finance had not been able to ‘securitize’ debts (turn them into assets) and sell them to speculators/investors over the past two decades, then debt creation could not have gone to such extremes and consumers would not have been able to borrow and spend themselves so far into financial ruin. If western consumers had not been able to borrow themselves so far into ruin, they would also not have been able to buy so many goods from Asia and other developing nations for a time. Asia and developing nations would not then have been able to mint so many new millionaires and billionaires in their governments and businesses who then funneled capital into western property markets, and western property markets would not have appreciated so far beyond domestic income gains. If property prices had not increased so far beyond income gains, then households would not have had to borrow so much just to get a roof over their heads or a post-secondary education. If they had not been able to borrow so much, property prices, education and related services would never have been able to rise so much for so long, and become so unaffordable for the masses. But they did.

Now, as William Butler Yeats (1854-1939) warned in his poem The Second Coming, the world is upside down and “the center cannot hold“:

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Bain: Collision Of Demographics, Automation, And Inequality Signals Societal Catastrophe

March 27, 2018

Bain: Collision Of Demographics, Automation, And Inequality Signals Societal Catastrophe

Earlier this month, John Mauldin hosted the Strategic Investment Conference 2018, a three-day investor conference with 20 financial experts discussing everything from the global economic outlook for the next 12-months, along with trading strategies to overcome significant geopolitical, economic, and technological risks.

One panel was hosted by Karen Harris, Managing Director of Bain & Company’s Macro Trends Group, who presented a fascinating keynote tilted: “Labor 2030: The Collision of Demographics, Automation, and Inequality.”

According to Mauldin Economics, Harris addressed roughly 700 investors who eagerly waited for her speech. Harris started off by saying, “the combination of a demographically shrinking workforce plus increasingly cost-effective automation will aggravate inequality, constrain demand, and put a cap on economic growth.”

She also warned, “this will have all sorts of unpleasant effects in the next decade.”

Similar to Chris Hamilton via the Econimica blog, Harris indicates there is a significant and ominous shift currently underway in the American economy — originating from the 1980s/1990s and forced upon by a “supply-constrained world to a demand-constrained one.” The primary drivers of the shift are debt, demographics, and disruption (or automation).

“Automation’s impact will be highly unequal. At least initially, high-wage workers will reap most of the gains and low-wage workers pay most of the cost. This is not beneficial to social order, obviously, but in the end, it’s not helpful even to the businesses that automate. Someone has to buy the goods the robots build and wealthy people have a lower propensity to spend. The results will be “demand-constrained growth.” This isn’t necessarily a contraction, but it will likely cap future GDP growth potential”

About 13-minutes into the keynote, Harris elaborated on “technology’s impact on demographics, i.e. helping people live longer.” She does not foresee lifespans dramatically increasing to reverse or cushion the deceleration in America’s lifespan growth.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Fourth Turning’s Neil Howe: “Today’s Demographics Defy Conventional Wisdom”

March 10, 2018

Fourth Turning’s Neil Howe: “Today’s Demographics Defy Conventional Wisdom”

John Mauldin interviewed Fourth Turning best-selling author and demographics expert, Neil Howe about generational changes and their effect on the markets, during a session at the Strategic Investment Conference 2018. Howe said that demographics and generational factors have a huge impact on equity prices in the long run. Not only that, he thinks that there’s now a generational shift in wealth distribution that could spark major political and economic disruption.

Today’s Demographics Defies Conventional Wisdom

The main example Howe shared is that people in the 75+ age bracket still dominate stock ownership by far. This defies conventional wisdom that people reduce risk as they retire and leave the workforce. Meanwhile, Millennials have lower income and stock ownership levels than previous generations did at the same age.

This is a key change as senior adults once had the highest poverty rates. Younger people are now challenging that once-safe assumption.

Howe also pointed out striking differences between early and late Baby Boomers. Those born in the mid/late 1940s inherited some of the Silent Generation’s wealth and good fortune. Late-stage Boomers born in the early 1960s score lower in all kinds of metrics.

Major Political and Financial Disruption Is Ahead

Neil Howe ended with an update on his Fourth Turning generational theory. He thinks we are about midway through it. From an economic standpoint, he foresees inflation fear and Fed tightening, which will be followed by a painful recession.

Politically, Millennials desperately want civic re-engagement. They are seeking to completely restructure institutions. The right wing is a brick wall on this subject and numbers have let them hold off the pressure so far. This will change as Millennials grow older and Boomers die.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Two Elephants In The Room That The GOP Has Completely Forgotten

February 5, 2018

Two Elephants In The Room That The GOP Has Completely Forgotten

The US economy is threatened by two giant problems which cause all others to pale into insignificance. We are referring to a rogue central bank that has become an absolute enemy of capitalist prosperity and a fiscal doomsday machine that is hostage to the ceaseless budgetary demands of the Warfare State, the Welfare State and the Baby Boom’s demographic imperatives.

Needless to say, both ends of the Acela Corridor are completely oblivious to these twin menaces. Indeed, they are the proverbial elephants in the room, thereby giving rise to a considerable irony: To wit, the GOP party of the elephant, which is supposed to be the palladium of financial rectitude in American politics, has forgotten about them completely.

For instance, in his triumphalist SOTU, the Donald didn’t utter so much as a single syllable about the Fed, the budget, entitlements, the $1 trillion per year deficits looming ahead or the nation’s soaring public debt. Yet after omitting virtually everything which counts, he went on to crow about how he is making America Great Again (MAGA) by making better trade deals and borrowing untold sums from future generations.

That is to say, when he did veer into fiscal territory it was to demand repeal of the sequester caps, which are the one thing that has slightly braked runaway spending, and to boast about his own favorite deficit financed twins: The $1.5 trillion tax cut already passed and the additional $1.5 trillion infrastructure boondoggle he proposed to lob on top.

Oh, and there was also his $33 billion Mexican Wall, 5,000 new border patrol agents (in addition to 20,000 already) and Federalization of two purported crises—the opioid epidemic and gangs like MS-13—-which should be a matter for local government, if the latter have any purpose at all.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The End of Economic Growth

December 1, 2017

The End of Economic Growth

UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Phillip Hammond (finance minister) delivered his budget on Wednesday last week. The tame budget was overshadowed by news that UK productivity and hence economic growth had stalled. In this post I search for the underlying causes of economic malaise and explore the structure of UK GDP; UK Government and private debt levels; demographics, in particular our ageing population; Higher Education policy, in particular over-production of sub-prime graduates and lastly UK Energy Policy that is focussed on high cost inefficient energy systems.

It has been frustrating to say the least listening to politicians, their advisors and a host of media commentators proclaim surprise and bewilderment that the UK economy seemed to be broken. Since no one seems to know how it broke, then it is clear no one will know how to fix it, if it can indeed be fixed. In this post I voice opinions on several factors that have combined to create these unwelcome circumstances and in the traditions of this blog, there is an energy theme, which I will leave until last touching on the topics of debt, demographics and sub-prime education en-route.

In very simple terms, the size of the UK economy can be expressed as the number of people times their average economic output. A refined measure would be the number of working-age people (16 to 66) times their average economic output. Economic growth is defined as the percentage change of this aggregate productivity from one year to the next. With the current economic model, growth is vital to the country since it feeds directly through to tax receipts used to deliver public services such as health care, welfare, education and defence. The level of aggregate borrowing (national debt) considered prudent may also be compared to GDP. If GDP growth stalls, so does the ability of the government to borrow prudently to finance public services.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Pension Ponzi Bailout: Democrats Sponsor US Treasury Bailout Scheme

November 13, 2017

Pension Ponzi Bailout: Democrats Sponsor US Treasury Bailout Scheme

Most defined benefit pension plans are nothing but Ponzi schemes. Plans are now unraveling because of demographics. An increasing number of retirees, needing untenable returns, are supported by fewer and fewer people putting money in the system. Democrats sponsored a bailout scheme. Will it pass?

Pension and Investments reports Sen. Sherrod Brown to Unveil Multiemployer Loan Program Legislation.

Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, plans to introduce legislation that would allow struggling multiemployer pension funds to borrow from the U.S. Treasury to remain solvent.

The bill, co-sponsored by Rep. Tim Ryan, D-Ohio, could be introduced later this week or shortly after. It would create a new office within the Treasury Department called the Pension Rehabilitation Administration. The funds would come from the sale of Treasury-issued bonds to financial institutions. The pension funds could borrow for 30 years at low interest rates. One restriction for borrowers is they could not make risky investments.

The bill would also fund a program at the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. to finance any remaining needs of pension plans borrowing from the new program. “Any money needed for the PBGC would be a tiny fraction of what it would otherwise be on the hook for if Congress fails to act,” said an analysis by Mr. Brown’s office.

Mr. Brown told a group of retired Teamsters in Ohio on Monday that the bill will be out shortly.

It Begins: Pension Bailout Bill

A reader asked me to comment on the story after reading ZeroHedge’s take: It Begins: Pension Bailout Bill To Be Introduced This Week.

“It’s bad enough that Wall Street squandered workers’ money — and it’s worse that the government that’s supposed to look out for these folks is trying to break the promise made to these workers. Not on our watch. We won’t allow that to happen,” said Brown.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Big Reversal: Inflation and Higher Interest Rates Are Coming Our Way

November 6, 2017

The Big Reversal: Inflation and Higher Interest Rates Are Coming Our Way

This interaction will spark a runaway feedback loop that will smack asset valuations back to pre-bubble, pre-pyramid scheme levels.

According to the conventional economic forecast, interest rates will stay near-zero essentially forever due to slow growth. And since growth is slow, inflation will also remain neutral.

This forecast is little more than an extension of the trends of the past 30+ years: a secular decline in interest rates and official inflation, which remains around 2% or less. (As many of us have pointed out for years, the real rate of inflation is much higher–in the neighborhood of 7% annually for those exposed to real-world costs.)

The Burrito Index: Consumer Prices Have Soared 160% Since 2001 (August 1, 2016)

Inflation Isn’t Evenly Distributed: The Protected Are Fine, the Unprotected Are Impoverished Debt-Serfs (May 25, 2017)

About Those “Hedonic Adjustments” to Inflation: Ignoring the Systemic Decline in Quality, Utility, Durability and Service (October 11, 2017)

Be Careful What You Wish For: Inflation Is Much Higher Than Advertised (October 5, 2017)

Apparently unbeknownst to conventional economists, trends eventually reverse or give way to new trends. As a general rule, whatever fundamentals are pushing the trend decay or slide into diminishing returns, and new dynamics arise that power a new trend.

I’ve often referred to the S-Curve as one model of how trends emerge, strengthen, top out, weaken and then fade. Trends often change suddenly, as in the phase-shift model, in which the status quo appears stable until hidden instabilities cause the entire “permanent and forever” status quo to collapse in a heap.

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) recently issued a report claiming that Demographics will reverse three multi-decade global trends. Here’s a precis of the case for a globally aging populace and a shrinking workforce to reverse the downward trends in inflation and interest rates: New Study Says Aging Populations Will Drive Higher Interest Rates (Bloomberg)

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Tale of Two America’s…Urban Rise, Rural Demise, Rationale to Hyper-Monetize

October 9, 2017

The Tale of Two America’s…Urban Rise, Rural Demise, Rationale to Hyper-Monetize

(The following was written as an outline for a potential book. To this point no publisher has shown interest and time and funds have run out.)

America is in the midst of an ongoing and accelerating shift in demographics and population growth. These trends, long in place, are at a tipping point that are simultaneously driving urban economic growth (plus associated asset bubbles) and rural economic declines (plus associated asset collapses). The spin up and spin down are mutually interconnected, the result of movement in a zero sum game. But for select regions (and rural America in general), there is a surging quantity of sellers and a dwindling quantity and quality of buyers that will result in the primary asset of most Americans, their home, transitioning from an asset to an outright liability.

Many will point to record stock market valuations as an indicator of positive economic and/or business activity to refute my claims. Instead, I argue it is the Federal Reserve and federal government policies, in place as a quasi “life support” for the negatively affected regions and rural America at large, that are driving the asset valuation explosions of equities (chart below, representing all stocks publicly traded in the US) and urban housing. I will outline why the situation in the affected regions will only get worse and thus the Fed believes its hands are tied. Why any amount of normalization will only induce localized collapses across much of the nation. The total market capitalization ($ value) of the Wilshire has nearly doubled the acknowledged “bubbles” of 2000 and 2008 and is likely to continue rising further, precisely due to the worsening issues I detail below.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Why We’re Doomed: Stagnant Wages

September 1, 2017

Why We’re Doomed: Stagnant Wages

The point is the present system cannot endure.

Despite all the happy talk about “recovery” and higher growth, wages have gone nowhere since 2000–and for the bottom 20% of workers, they’ve gone nowhere since the 1970s.

Gross domestic product (GDP) has risen smartly since 2000, but the share of GDP going to wages and salaries has plummeted: this is simply an extension of a 47-year downtrend.

Last month I posted one reason Why We’re Doomed: Our Economy’s Toxic Inequality (August 16, 2017). The second half of why we’re doomed is stagnant wages. Why do stagnating wages for the bottom 95% doom our status quo? As I noted yesterday in Why Wages Have Lost Ground in the 21st Century, our system requires ever-higher household incomes to function–not just in the top 5%, but in the top 80%.

Our federal social programs–Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid–are pay-as-you-go: all the expenditures this year are paid by taxes collected this year. As I have detailed many times, the so-called “Trust Funds” are fictions; when Social Security runs a deficit, the difference between receipts and expenses are filled by selling Treasury bonds in the open market–the exact same mechanism ther government uses to fund any other deficit.

The demographics of the nation have changed in the past two generations. The Baby Boom is retiring en masse, expanding the number of beneficiaries of these programs, while the number of full-time workers to retirees is down from 10-to-1 in the good old days to 2-to-1: there are 60 million beneficiaries of Social Security and Medicare and about 120 million full-time workers in the U.S.

Meanwhile, medical expenses per person are soaring. Profiteering by healthcare cartels, new and ever-more costly treatments, the rise of chronic lifestyle illnesses–there are many drivers of this trend. There is absolutely no evidence to support the fantasy that this trend will magically reverse.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Boomers Are Turning 71—These 4 Charts Paint A Perfect Storm It Will Set Off For Investors

August 31, 2017

Boomers Are Turning 71—These 4 Charts Paint A Perfect Storm It Will Set Off For Investors

Few investors understand the magnitude of the looming demographic crisis and its ramifications.

The first Baby Boomers turned 70 last year. At the same time, the US fertility rate is at its lowest point since records began in 1909.

This disastrous combination means by 2030, those aged 65 and older will make up over 20% of the population.

Source: Mauldin Economics

In the meantime, the percentage of working-age cohorts are in decline. Combined together, these trends create a perfect demographic storm for the US economy.

Here’s why.

A Deflationary Environment

The chart below shows that growth in the working-age population has been a leading indicator of nominal GDP for decades.

Source: Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis

One of the reasons for that is that spending drops on average by 37.5% in retirement. Given that consumption accounts for 70% of US economic activity, this is a major deflationary force.

Economic growth and corporate profits go hand in hand. Which means this trend will cut down company earnings and, in turn, investors’ returns will go down further.

That’s not yet the worst news. Along with declining profits, America’s aging population has ever more profound implications for investors.

A Big Shift in Financial Markets

According to BlackRock, the average Boomer has only $136,000 saved for retirement. Even assuming 7% returns—when they’re more like 2%—it’s a yearly income of only $9,000. That’s $36,000 shy of the ideal retirement income.

This huge funding gap in pensions means Boomers will be forced to look for income elsewhere. Historically, that has come from bonds.

The research shows once you hit the age of 65, you go through the most profound asset class shift since you were in your 30s. You start to trim your equity and start to raise your bond exposure.

Source: Mauldin Economics

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Grant Williams: “History Is About To Repeat Itself Again… And It Might Get Ugly”

August 27, 2017

Grant Williams: “History Is About To Repeat Itself Again… And It Might Get Ugly”

Real Vision’s Grant Williams believes that the 76 million retiring Baby Boomers will trigger a major pension crisis.

“With that potentially bad situation we could face,” the seasoned asset manager and co-founder of Real Vision TV said in a recent extended Metal Masters interview (full interview below), “holding physical metal, somewhere safe, somewhere outside the banking system, is just a sensible precaution to take.”

His outlook has changed drastically since he started his first job trading Japanese markets in 1986: “What I walked into at that time was one of the greatest bull market bubbles the world had ever seen, in the Japanese equity market and real estate market.” During this heyday, precious metals weren’t on his radar at all—until a year later, when he witnessed his first stock market crash and started asking some inconvenient questions.

“I’ve always been a fan of history,” says Williams, who also writes the wildly popular macroeconomic newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… “So I read financial history and I just kept reading. And it was clear to me that at this point in time, I needed to buy some gold.”

Until then, the gold price didn’t mean much to him, except as an indicator of other things, so he considers the crashes he witnessed in his career wake-up calls and blessings in disguise.

The 1987 crash, he says, was more like “a bad day at the office; it came and went so fast… The bounce-back was quick, but it was a real shock to the system that that could happen.” When the dotcom bubble burst, he was well prepared. “I recognized the madness for what it was much sooner… and so that taught me that markets can reverse and just go down.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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