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Chinese Stocks Give Up Trump Gains As $1.7 Trillion Source Of Funds Unwinds

Chinese Stocks Give Up Trump Gains As $1.7 Trillion Source Of Funds Unwinds

The Chinese and U.S. stock markets are going in opposite directions, as an intensifying crackdown against leverage has slammed the recently ‘stable’ Shanghai Composite over the past week, erasing all post-Trump gains.

The relatsionship between the two markets is the weakest since August 2008 – just before the collapse of Lehman unleashed chaos on the global financial system.

Bloomberg reports that given how mainland stocks have become increasingly linked to global markets, however, the divergence may prove to be a short-term phenomenon, according to Daniel So, a strategist at CMB International Securities Ltd. in Hong Kong.

The Chinese government is squeezing speculation out of the market and while investors adjust, it will inevitably lag behind other parts of the world,” So said.

And as we noted previously, for a market relying more on liquidity than fundamentals, China’s worsening monetary conditions index suggests tough times ahead…

China’s deleveraging drive and the renewed focus on market irregularities have put the mainland share market into a “bad mood,” but officials aren’t likely to tolerate a lot of instability ahead of the Communist Party’s twice-a-decade leadership reshuffle later this year, said George Magnus, a former adviser to UBS Group AG and current associate at the University of Oxford’s China Centre.

“The authorities are trying to calm down leverage and housing at the margin but will not go any further than the minimum necessary,” he said. “If it looks as though regulatory tightening is delivering unfavorable outcomes, and risks any form of instability, you won’t be able to say the world ‘backtrack’ fast enough.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Venezuela On The Verge Of Revolution As Hyperinflated Currency Crashes To New Record Low

Venezuela On The Verge Of Revolution As Hyperinflated Currency Crashes To New Record Low

Venezuela, a country with only $10 billion left in reserves to run on, is in trouble. As the currency hyperinflates to new record lows against the dollar…

James Holbrooks points out that the people are starving. The government has gone full-on authoritarian, and now desperate human beings are dying in the streets. From an Associated Press report on Friday:

“Authorities in Venezuela say 12 people were killed overnight following looting and violence in the South American nation’s capital amid a spiraling political crisis.”

“Most of the deaths took place in El Valle, where opposition leaders say 13 people were hit with an electrical current while trying to loot a bakery protected by an electric fence.”

These are people without options, forced to turn to thievery to stay alive. And they died because of it.

On April 6, The Economist reported that over the past year, 74 percent of Venezuelans lost an average of 20 pounds. Venezuela, incidentally, has topped Bloomberg’s Economic Misery Index for the past three years.

The country began its slide downward into chaos with the election of President Nicolas Maduro, who immediately began implementing socialist programs and has since taken extreme measures to secure his position.

At the end of March, for instance, Maduro effectively shut down Venezuela’s congress — his primary political opposition — and gave those legislative duties to his puppet Supreme Court.

The latest news coming out of the South American nation — aside from the deaths of people trying to steal bread to live — is that General Motors, whose Venezuelan production facility was overtaken by local authorities, has now ceased all operations in the country.

To put that in perspective, consider that in 2016, only 3,000 vehicles were sold in Venezuela, a country of 30 million people.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“The Retail Bubble Has Now Burst”: A Record 8,640 Stores Are Closing In 2017

“The Retail Bubble Has Now Burst”: A Record 8,640 Stores Are Closing In 2017

        “Thousands of new doors opened and rents soared. This created a bubble, and like housing, that bubble has now burst.”

        – Richard Hayne, Urban Outfitters CEO, March 2017

The devastation in the US retail sector is accelerating in 2017, and in addition to the surging number of brick and mortar retail bankruptcies, it is perhaps nowhere more obvious than in the soaring number of store closures.

While the shuttering of retail stores has been a frequent topic on this website, most recently in the context of the next “big short”, namely the ongoing deterioration in the mall REITs and associated Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities and CDS, here is a stunning fact from Credit Suisse:“Barely a quarter into 2017, year-to-date retail store closings have already surpassed those of 2008.”

According to the Swiss bank’s calculations, on a unit basis, approximately 2,880 store closings were announced YTD, more than twice as many closings as the 1,153 announced during the same period last year. Historically, roughly 60% of store closure announcements occur in the first five months of the year. By extrapolating the year-to-date announcements, CS estimates that there could be more than 8,640 store closings this year, which will be higher than the historical 2008 peak of approximately 6,200 store closings, which suggests that for brick-and-mortar stores stores the current transition period is far worse than the depth of the credit crisis depression.

As the WSJ calculates, at least 10 retailers, including Limited Stores, electronics chain hhgregg and sporting-goods chain Gander Mountain have filed for bankruptcy protection so far this year. That compares with nine retailers that declared bankruptcy, with at least $50 million liabilities, for all of 2016. On Friday, women’s apparel chain Bebe Stores said it would close its remaining 170 shops and sell only online, while teen retailer Rue21 Inc. announced plans to close about 400 of its 1,100 locations.

Broken down by retailer, either in bankruptcy or not yet:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Fitch Downgrades Italy To BBB From BBB+

Fitch Downgrades Italy To BBB From BBB+

Having largely disappeared from the market’s scope for the past 6 months, ever since Europe “bent” its rule allowing the bailout of Monte Paschi and several smaller banks despite Italy having the greatest amount of disclosed NPLs of any European nation, moments ago Fitch decided to drag Italy right back in the spotlight when it downgraded Italy to BBB from BBB+, citing “Italy’s persistent track record of fiscal slippage, back-loading of consolidation, weak economic growth, and resulting failure to bring down the very high level of general government debt has left it more exposed to potential adverse shocks. This is compounded by an increase in political risk, and ongoing weakness in the banking sector which has required planned public intervention in three banks since December.

And some more:

Italy has missed successive targets for general government debt/GDP, which increased by 0.5pp in 2016 to 132.6%. This is 11.2% of GDP higher than the target in the Stability Programme of 2013, the year Fitch downgraded Italy’s Long-Term IDRs to ‘BBB+’, and compares with the current ‘BBB’ range median of 41.5% of GDP. Fitch forecasts general government debt to peak at 132.7% of GDP in 2017, falling only gradually to 129.3% in 2020 in our debt sensitivity projections.

Fitch’s rating Outlook for the Italian banking sector is Negative, primarily reflecting the challenge of reducing the high level of un-provisioned non-performing loans (NPLs), alongside weak profitability and capital generation. The rate of new NPLs edged down to 2.3% in 4Q16, and there is some greater impetus for disposals and write-downs, which has slightly reduced total NPLs. However, sofferenze, the worst category of loans, increased to EUR203 billion in February, from EUR199 billion in October. Total NPLs amount to close to 17.5% of loans and 20% of GDP, and just over half are provided against.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Is China Trying To (Slowly) Burst Another Stock Market Bubble?

Is China Trying To (Slowly) Burst Another Stock Market Bubble?

The pressure point in Asian stock markets this week has been the decline in Chinese equities (the biggest weekly drop in 4 months).

Despite a stellar performance of the economy the outlook for the Shanghai Composite Index isn’t promising as the government is taking advantage of better growth to spur deleveraging.

For a market relying more on liquidity than fundamentals, China’s worsening monetary conditions index suggests tough times ahead…

The last 4 days have highlighted the unusual effect in Chinese stocks.. each time the Shanghai Composite dropped over 1% (red dotted line) it was miraculously lifted to ensure it closed with a loss less than 1%…

 

As Bloomberg reports, authorities favor a steady stock market because it helps companies fund investment and repay debt by issuing new shares, which could help boost economic growth, according to Yin Ming, a vice president at Baptized Capital in Shanghai.

“The national team is behind it,” Yin said. “State funds will likely continue to be a market stabilizer.”

So one wonders, is China desperate to delever the speculative fervor in their markets… but do it just 1% at a time? Can the ‘market’ really be that well centrally planned? We will see…

If the 6-month lag in Chines commodities is anything to go by, the breakdown in Chinese stocks is nowhere near over…

China Puts Bombers On High Alert “For A Potential North Korea Contingency”

China Puts Bombers On High Alert “For A Potential North Korea Contingency”

The US has seen evidence that the Chinese military is preparing “for a potential North Korea contingency“, CNN reports citing a US defense official, and adds that Chinese air force land-attack, cruise-missile-capable bombers were put “on high alert” on Wednesday.

The official added that the US has also seen an extraordinary number of Chinese military aircraft being brought up to full readiness through intensified maintenance.

The official said that these recent steps by the Chinese are assessed as part of an effort to “reduce the time to react to a North Korea contingency.”

Among the contingency options listed is the “risk of an armed conflict breaking out as tensions on the peninsula have risen in the wake of multiple North Korean missile tests.”

There has also been ratcheted up rhetoric from the US and Pyongyang, with the latter’s state media warning Thursday that a pre-emptive strike by North Korea would result in the US and South Korea being “completely destroyed in an instant.”

Beijing has long been concerned about potential instability in North Korea should the regime in Pyongyang collapse, fearing both an influx of refugees and the potential of reunification under a South Korean government closely allied to the US.

Meanwhile, China remains opposed to the US military’s presence in South Korea, protesting the recent US and South Korea decision to begin deploying elements of the THAAD missile defense system.

Given the close economic links between North Korea and China, US military officials have said that Beijing is critical to solving the North Korean situation, with President Donald Trump recently commending Chinese President Xi Jinping for Chinese efforts to curb Pyongyang’s activities.

Earlier on Thursday, Nikkei reported that as a form of ratcheting up pressure on North Korea, China may halt crude exports to North Korea should Pyongyang conduct its sixth nuclear test, “signalling a tougher attitude by Beijing.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

U.S. Preparing Charges To Arrest Julian Assange

U.S. Preparing Charges To Arrest Julian Assange

In a stunning new report, CNN has just revealed, according to anonymous sources at least, that US authorities have prepared charges and will seek the arrest of WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange for intelligence leaks dating all the way back to 2010.

US authorities have prepared charges to seek the arrest of WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange, US officials familiar with the matter tell CNN.

The Justice Department investigation of Assange and WikiLeaks dates to at least 2010, when the site first gained wide attention for posting thousands of files stolen by the former US Army intelligence analyst now known as Chelsea Manning.

This latest revelation comes after CIA Director Mike Pompeo ramped up the Trump administration’s rhetoric against WikiLeaks describing it as a “non-state hostile intelligence service” earlier this week.  Ironically, as we noted this morning, Pompeo’s comments can just days before the FBI and CIA admitted that they are searching for an “insider” at the CIA (not a Russian) who exposed thousands of top-secret documents that described CIA tools used to penetrate smartphones, smart televisions and computer systems.

Last week in a speech at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, CIA Director Mike Pompeo went further than any US government official in describing a role by WikiLeaks that went beyond First Amendment activity.

He said WikiLeaks “directed Chelsea Manning to intercept specific secret information, and it overwhelmingly focuses on the United States.”

“It’s time to call out WikiLeaks for what it really is: A non-state hostile intelligence service often abetted by state actors like Russia,” Pompeo said.

Pompeo’s comments were, of course, met with an immediate snarky reply from Assange over twitter.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Inside The World’s “Doomsday Vault”

Inside The World’s “Doomsday Vault”

Imagine that the unthinkable has happened. A massive asteroid impact triggers a “nuclear winter” effect, or one of the world’s most dangerous supervolcanos erupts. Maybe Donald Trump gets in an epic Twitter feud with Kim Jong-Un that initiates World War 3. Either way, things are going sideways, and the fate of human civilization itself is at stake. Will everything be lost? Visual Capitalist’s Jeff Desjardins explains…

ENTER THE ‘DOOMSDAY VAULT’

Well, besides the fact that the world’s cities have been replaced by smoking craters, there is some good news for the humans that survive a potentially apocalyptic scenario.

On a remote island that is just 800 miles (1,300 km) from the North Pole, the Norwegian government has built a failsafe in the freezing cold that protects thousands of the most vital crops from extinction. Officially called the Svalbard Global Seed Vault, it already holds close to a million samples of crops around the world, with each sample holding about 500 seeds.

Today’s infographic, from Futurism, has more on this Doomsday Vault that could one day help to save civilization:

Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

WikiLeaks Issues Response To CIA Director Mike Pompeo

WikiLeaks Issues Response To CIA Director Mike Pompeo

The feud between Julian Assange and Wikiealks is growing.

After being blasted by new CIA Director Mike Pompeo yesterday as a “hostile non-state intelligence service,” late on Thursday Julian Assange responded on Twitter by trolling the CIA, the “state non-intelligence agency,” over its own roles in producing “al-Qaeda, ISIS, Iraq, Iran and Pinochet.”

So, one day later, having let tempers cool, Julian Assange – who one month ago released the contents of its “Vault7” exposing the CIA’s hacking exploits around the world in the “largest ever publication of confidential CIA documents” – issued moments ago the following statement via the Wikileaks twitter account responding to Mike Pompeo (highlights ours).

In his first speech in office, CIA Director Mike Pompeo rather than focusing on China, North Korea, or the rise of extremism, chose to announce an offensive against WikiLeaks and other publishers. In doing so Director Pompeo characterized WikiLeaks as a “non-state intelligence service”. This absurd definition would have all serious media organizations (with the exception of state owned media) transformed into ‘non-state intelligence services’- with the explicitly stated goal of stripping constitutional protections for publishers.

History shows the danger of allowing the CIA or any intelligence agency, whose very modus operandi includes misdirection and lying, to be the sole arbiter of what is true or what is prudent. Otherwise every day might see a repeat of the many foolish CIA actions which have led to death, displacement, dictatorship and terrorism.

All serious media organizations are in the business of obtaining information by encouraging sources to step forward. The key difference between media and intelligence is that the media is in the business of publishing what it discovers to a wide audience. WikiLeaks is an award winning media organization that is well known for the accuracy and volume of its publications and its millions of readers.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Latest “Shadow Brokers” Leak Reveals NSA Hacked Most Windows Platforms; SWIFT Banks

Latest “Shadow Brokers” Leak Reveals NSA Hacked Most Windows Platforms; SWIFT Banks

One week after the “Shadow Broker” hacker group re-emerged when in a Medium blog post it slammed Donald Trump’s betrayal of his core “base” and the recent attack on Syria, urging Trump to revert to his original promises and not be swept away by globalist and MIC interests, it also released the password which grants access to what Edward Snowden dubbed the NSA’s “Top Secret arsenal of digital weapons”, it has made fresh headlines by releasing data which reportedly reveals that the NSA had hacked the SWIFT banking system of several banks around the globe including in the EU and middle east.

As a reminder, last year the Shadow Brokers claimed to have stolen files from the NSA’s cyber-espionage group known as the Equation Group. After initially putting up the tools up for auction (ultimately nobody was interested in paying the price of 1 million Bitcoin, or around $570 million at the time), Last week, the Shadow Brokers dumped the password for the files they had put up for auction last summer. Missing from last week’s dump were the Windows files they put up for individual auctions over the winter.

Fast forward one week, when on Good Friday the Shadow Brokers dumped a new collection of files, containing what appears to be exploits and hacking tools targeting Microsoft’s Windows OS and evidence the Equation Group had gained access to servers and targeted banks connected to the ubiquitous SWIFT banking system.

The tools were dumped via the Shadow Brokers Twitter account and were accompanied by a new blog post. As Bleeping Computer’s Catalin Cimpanu, who first noticed the release, points out, the blog post is called “Lost in Translation,” and in addition to some premeditated ramblings in broken English…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Japan Prepares For North Korea “Emergency”

Japan Prepares For North Korea “Emergency”

Judging by the precautionary actions of North Korea’s neighbors, the next 48 hours on the Korean peninsula could see substantial volatility, because at the same time as China’s largest carrier was said to suspend flights to Pyongyang, the Japanese government has asked the U.S. to provide advance consultation if it is about to launch military action against North Korea, and “has ramped up preparations for emergency situations” according to Japan’s Yomiuri Shimbun, including the potential evacuation of some 57,000 Japanese citizens currently in South Korea.

According to the Japanese publication, PM Shinzo Abe stressed that the region is becoming increasingly tense. “[U.S. President Donald Trump] has stated that all options are on the table. It’s a fact tensions are rising,” he said at the Prime Minister’s Office after receiving a written proposal calling for tougher sanctions on North Korea from the Liberal Democratic Party’s Eriko Yamatani, chief of the headquarters for the abduction issue.

He added that “if an unexpected situation occurs, we’ll ask the United States to cooperate in rescuing the abduction victims.”

The Japanese government, like its South Korean peer, has asked for advance consultation regarding any U.S. military action against North Korea during a series of meetings between Japanese and U.S. officials. The U.S. side is said to have responded positively to the request. This is because Japan would need to take appropriate precautions given that, as an ally of Washington, it could be a target for retaliation should the U.S. military attack North Korea, although in order to preserve the “element of surprise” it would not be at all
surprising if Trump proceeded to launching a strike unannounced.

As the infographic below shows, the Japanese government is contemplating five potential emergency responses should a military clash break out between the US and North Korea:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Air China Suspends Flights To North Korea As Kim Vows “Merciless Response To Any US Provocation”

Air China Suspends Flights To North Korea As Kim Vows “Merciless Response To Any US Provocation”

In the latest escalation over what may be an imminent preemptive airstrike on North Korea by US warships now located just 300 miles away from the North Korean nuclear test site, moments ago China’s national airline, Air China, announced it was suspending flights from Beijing to the North Korean capital, Pyongyang, from late on Friday, Chinese state broadcaster CCTV said. It did not say why the flights, which operate on Monday, Wednesday and Friday, were being suspended.

In the report published on its website, CCTV did not cite a source while according to Reuters, Air China could not immediately be reached for comment after business hours. The last flight between the two cities took place on Friday, with the return flight to Beijing arriving in the early evening, the broadcaster said. Air China began regular flights between the two countries in 2008 but the flights were frequently cancelled because of unspecified problems, the broadcaster said. China is North Korea’s sole major ally but it disapproves of the North’s weapons programs, and its confrontations with the United States and its Asian allies, and it has supported U.N. sanctions against it.

Following repeated missile tests that drew international criticism, China banned all imports of North Korean coal on Feb. 26, cutting off the country’s most important export product. North Korea’s army vowed a ‘merciless’ response to any US provocation, the official news agency reported Friday, as tensions soar over Pyongyang’s rogue nuclear program.

Meanwhile, after warning that it was ready to “go to war”, on Friday North Korea’s army vowed a “merciless” response to any US provocation, the official news agency reported Friday. A statement of KCNA, which cited Washington’s recent missile strike on Syria, said the administration of President Donald Trump had “entered the path of open threat and blackmail against the DPRK”.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Assange Responds To CIA Director That “Produced al-Qaeda, ISIS, Iraq, Iran & Pinochet”

Assange Responds To CIA Director That “Produced al-Qaeda, ISIS, Iraq, Iran & Pinochet”

After being blasted by new CIA Director Mike Pompeo yesterday as a “hostile non-state intelligence service,” Julian Assange has decided to respond by trolling the CIA, the “state non-intelligence agency,” over its own roles in producing “al-Qaeda, ISIS, Iraq, Iran and Pinochet.”

“Called a “non-state intelligence service” today by the “state non-intelligence agency” which produced al-Qaeda, ISIS, Iraq, Iran & Pinochet.”

Assange’s Twitter trolling was prompted by Pompeo’s attack on WikiLeaks yesterday which appeared to be in response to an op-ed Assange wrote in the Washington Post on Tuesday which referenced President Dwight D. Eisenhower’s 1961 farewell speech, in which he warned of the dangers of the influence of the military industrial complex. Assange said the speech is similar to WikiLeaks’ own mission statement.

On his last night in office, President Dwight D. Eisenhower delivered a powerful farewell speech to the nation — words so important that he’d spent a year and a half preparing them. “Ike” famously warned the nation to “guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist.”

Much of Eisenhower’s speech could form part of the mission statement of WikiLeaks today. We publish truths regarding overreaches and abuses conducted in secret by the powerful.

Our most recent disclosures describe the CIA’s multibillion-dollar cyberwarfare program, in which the agency created dangerous cyberweapons, targeted private companies’ consumer products and then lost control of its cyber-arsenal. Our source(s) said they hoped to initiate a principled public debate about the “security, creation, use, proliferation and democratic control of cyberweapons.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

China Warns North Korea War “Could Break Out At Any Moment”

China Warns North Korea War “Could Break Out At Any Moment”

“North Korea is a problem,” Trump told reporters at the White House on Thursday. “The problem will be taken care of.”

Which prompted North Korea’s rebuke of US President Trump’s “aggressive words,” overnight.

Both China (“The situation now is similar to the time before a storm, and this kind of dangerous situation worth of our attention and we must be alert,”) and Russia (watching the developments around North Korea with “great concern”) have weighed in on the increasingly tense saber-rattling occurring between the two nations.

As Bloomberg reports, China warned that a war on the Korean Peninsula would have devastating consequences and “one has the feeling that a war could break out at any moment.”
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged all parties “to stop provoking and threatening each other and not to make the situation irretrievable,” seemingly fearful that the next step could make war (world-inclusive) inevitable.

“No matter who the nation is, if it continues to provoke wars in the Peninsula, it has to bear this historical responsibility and pay its price.”

“Once a war really happens, the result will be nothing but losing all round and no one could become a winner,” Wang told reporters in Beijing on Friday, according to the official Xinhua News Agency.

These concerns were echoed by a senior Russian lawmaker who, as AP reports, says the US is a greater threat to global peace than North Korea…

Konstantin Kosachev, the head of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the upper house of Russian parliament, said Friday “the most alarming thing about the current U.S. administration is that you can’t be sure if it is bluffing or really going to implement its threats.”

He says “America objectively poses a greater threat to peace than North Korea,” adding that “the entire world is scared and left guessing if it strikes or not.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

US May Launch Preemptive Strike On North Korea Ahead Of Nuclear Test

US May Launch Preemptive Strike On North Korea Ahead Of Nuclear Test

With just two days to go until North Korea’s “Day of the Sun” celebrations, when as reported yesterday it may conduct its 6th nuclear test at the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site, NBC reports citing multiple senior U.S. intelligence officials that in the latest stepwise escalation, the U.S. is prepared to launch a preemptive strike with conventional weapons against North Korea should officials become convinced that Kim Jong-Un’s nation North Korea is about to follow through with a nuclear weapons test. Note: North Korea does not even have to carry out the text: mere conviction on the side of the US that it would, is sufficient.

As first reported yesterday, North Korea warned that a “big event” is near, and U.S. officials say signs point to a nuclear test that could come as early as this weekend. According to multiple sources, the U.S. intelligence community has reported with “moderate confidence” that North Korea is preparing for its sixth underground nuclear test, though the U.S. is also in the dark regarding the specific timing.

The launch of a preemptive attack would naturally threatens a counterattack by Kim: the U.S. is thus “worried” that its strikes could provoke the volatile and unpredictable North Korean regime to launch its own blistering attack on its southern neighbor. “The leadership in North Korea has shown absolutely no sign or interest in diplomacy or dialogue with any of the countries involved in this issue,” said Victor Cha, the Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Meanwhile, intelligence officials have told NBC News that the U.S. Navy has positioned two destroyers capable of shooting Tomahawk cruise missiles in the region, one just 300 miles from the North Korean nuclear test site. .

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai II: Exodus
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