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The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center forecasts extreme cold weather “across the heart of the country this weekend and is expected to continue into next week.” We previewed this cold blast in a note titled “Gobsmackingly Bananas”: Weather Models Predict Polar Vortex Invasion Into US.

Whenever cold air spills south from Canada into the Heartland, attention usually shifts to Texas.

Next, power demand forecasts from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, the power grid operator for Texas, are analyzed to see if demand forecasts exceed supply. Current forecasts show ERCOT faces the first major test of grid stability for the new year.

And this:

ERCOT has warned its 26 million Texas customers about the upcoming cold blast this weekend into next week. The grid operator assures customers, “Grid conditions are expected to be normal, and ERCOT expects to have sufficient supply to meet demand.”

Energy-focused research firm Criterion Research told clients in a note Wednesday that ERCOT will likely survive the big cold shot:

ERCOT has issued an Operating Condition Notice (OCN) for the upcoming cold weather event forecast from January 15-17, 2024. The OCN is the first of four levels of communication provided by the agency ahead of a possible Emergency Condition – the following three levels would be Energy Emergency Levels 1 through 3.

ERCOT’s current forecast run shows extreme demand conditions starting on Tuesday, January 16, 2024. That includes a projected peak load of 85,587 MW at 7 AM that morning. However, renewable generation from wind and solar are expected to help out as demand pushes to a seasonal record, with early morning wind + solar contribution 14,137 MW.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

A “Textbook” Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event Appears To Be Unfolding

December 24, 2023

A “Textbook” Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event Appears To Be Unfolding

Meteorologists on social media channel X are posting weather models about the increasing threat of a so-called sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) over the Arctic, which could unleash wintry weather across the eastern half of the US in the new year.

“A textbook sudden stratospheric warming event looks to be unfolding,” private weather forecaster BAM Weather (BAMWX).

Judah Cohen, Ph.D. and an atmospheric and environmental scientist who studies the polar vortex, told FOX Weather an SSW event takes “about two weeks for the effects of the sudden stratospheric warming to impact our weather.”

Cohen expects that cold air will pour into the Lower 48 in the new year, although the specifics of the event remain uncertain.

Yale Climate Connections wrote in a recent note, “The odds of a snow-favoring East Coast cold wave will be boosted if a sudden stratospheric warming happens to develop in January.”

“Sudden stratospheric warmings involve a rapid and dramatic rise in temperature — as much as 80 degrees Fahrenheit — within the polar stratosphere, together with a disruption in the stratospheric polar vortex. That disruption typically either splits the vortex or pushes it southward, along with associated Arctic air masses,” the weather service ran by Yale Center for Environmental Communication. And it’s the splitting of the polar vortex that delivers the blast of Arctic air to the Lower 48 region.

Cohen posted, “All models now agree on a Polar Vortex stretch. Major warming still possible.”

Meteorologist Mark Margavage said, “The 12z EPS Control run is showing the granddaddy of all Polar Vortex disruptions with a major Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event and split of the PV. This would be the most impactful scenario of the 4 presented today.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/textbook-sudden-stratospheric-warming-event-appears-be-unfolding

Mount Washington Observatory As Cold As Mars With Record-Breaking Wind Chill

February 4, 2023

Mount Washington Observatory As Cold As Mars With Record-Breaking Wind Chill

The polar vortex that moved in yesterday has been nothing short of impressive. Records were broken at the Mount Washington Observatory (MWObs) in New Hampshire’s White Mountains.

At 6,288 feet, MWObs is located at the highest peak in the Northeast and has some of the most wicked weather in the world.

The lowest-ever wind chill was recorded early Saturday morning near -109 degrees Fahrenheit, surpassing the previous record of -103 degrees. At the same time, temperatures were around -47 degrees.

“There is half of me that loves what is going on right now, and the other half of me is pretty terrifying,” meteorologist Francis Tarasiewicz, stationed at MWObs, told NBC 10 Boston.

Here’s a live feed from MWObs.

For some reference, Mars averages about -81 degrees. So the temperatures at MWObs are out of this world.

Recall Friday, we noted that the polar vortex weakened and would pour the coldest air in the world into New England.

Here’s a snapshot of temperatures around 0800 ET via Ambient Weather data.

The National Weather Service in Boston said record cold was achieved at 3 out of 4 weather stations.

Brr, it’s freezing in Boston.

As well as in NYC.

There is some good news. The cold shot across the Lower 48 will only be brief, and above-average temperatures are forecasted for next week.

Meanwhile, legendary Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow on Thursday, which means the possibility of six more weeks of winter.

More Than 400,000 Texans Without Power Amid Dangerous Winter Storm

February 3, 2023

More Than 400,000 Texans Without Power Amid Dangerous Winter Storm

The freezing conditions will end for Texas soon, but they’re set to move into the Northeast this weekend.

A woman waits for paramedics in the back of a Lyft Ride vehicle on February 01, 2023 in Austin, Texas. A winter storm is sweeping across portions of Texas, causing massive power outages and disruptions of highways and roads.

Central Texas has been frozen since earlier this week after an Arctic front rolled into the Southern U.S. Parts of central, west, and north Texas and nearby states Arkansas and Tennessee were under ice storm warnings, per the National Weather Service Prediction Center. The freezing temperatures and sleet should end by this weekend.

“The prolonged and damaging ice storm that has impacted a large region from Texas to Tennessee is forecast to finally come to an end today as a final surge of moisture slides eastward,” the NWS said. “Highs will return into the 40s and 50s by Friday, likely eliminating any icy concerns.”

“FINALLY beginning to see some clearing on radar. Road conditions will slowly improve as we climb into the mid 30s today. Slick spots will persist overnight but widespread improvement is expected tomorrow. Allow for extra travel time today. It’s still slushy!” the Fort Worth National Weather Service account tweeted Thursday.

More than 405,000 customers out of 13 million are without power, according to Poweroutage.us.

Several days of icy conditions had canceled over 2,000 flights across several states as of Wednesday afternoon, the Wall Street Journal reported. Driving was dangerous throughout Texas this week. The storm has been blamed for 10 traffic accident deaths across three states, the Associated Press reported. The sleet and freezing rain also created ice layers on trees, causing the branches to snap off.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Siberia Records Minus-80 Degrees As Talk Of Polar Vortex Grows

January 14, 2023

Siberia Records Minus-80 Degrees As Talk Of Polar Vortex Grows

Several weeks after the Christmas Arctic blast, much of the US and Europe have enjoyed record warmth. Recall on Dec. 27, we noted the cold air mass from Siberia that spread across the continental US would dissipate into the new year. So far, this is correct, as three weeks of above-average weather has staved off an energy crisis in the Northern Hemisphere. But just north, in Siberia, temperatures are sinking to near-record lows. And it could only be a matter of time before the giant cold air mass swirling in the North Pole becomes unstable, breaks down, and begins pouring into the US and Europe.

Global warming alarmists who called for an imminent climate disaster last summer are scratching their heads as the rural northern Siberian town of Zhilinda just recorded temperatures of minus-79.8 degrees, according to climatologist Maximiliano Herrera, who tracks extreme temperatures across the globe.

Herrera told The Washington Post that Zhilinda was just a few degrees off from breaking its record low of minus-82.3 degrees. The all-time low for the Northern Hemisphere was set in Russia in 1933 at minus-89.9 degrees.

Earlier this week, Arcfield Weather’s Paul Dorian said winter isn’t over and called for a significant change in North American weather “in about ten days or so.” Like anything, nothing is ever constant, and the warm spell could give way to colder temps later this month or early February.

“Sometimes, exceptionally cold air that builds over Siberia spills into the eastern United States,” WaPo explained, adding:

“Although the eastern United States has had very mild weather since that late December cold blast, there is the potential for a significant pattern change toward the end of January.”

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Colder Weather Might Return To Northwest Europe Next Week

January 12, 2023

Colder Weather Might Return To Northwest Europe Next Week

European natural gas prices have plunged to pre-Ukraine invasion levels on mild winter. Heating demand across the EU has declined, allowing fuel storage tanks to continue injections and remain above seasonal levels. This bodes well for the energy-stricken continent, but new weather forecasts suggest a late-month return to winter.

The benchmark Dutch TTF futures contract for February was down to 65.80 euros a megawatt-hour or more than 6% on the session. On the eve of Russia’s invasion last February, the contract sold for about 88 euros.

Several factors have allowed the EU to skirt around an energy crisis, including alternatives to Russian NatGas, such as increased imports of US LNG, widespread conservation efforts for residential and business customers, and a very mild winter.

NatGas stockpiles across the continent are well above a 12-year mean for this time of the year. The percentage of NatGas full has yet to fall from around 83% since Christmas.

Meanwhile, new weather models are pointing to a possible flip back to colder temperatures next week for parts of Europe. Natgas traders will be focused on the severity of the cold and the impacts on heating demand.

The return of wintry conditions follows a record-warm start to the year, which provided relief from an energy crunch that has hammered Europe for months. The mild weather curbed demand for heating, allowing some countries to top up natural gas stockpiles at a time when they’d usually be tapping supplies.

Most of Britain will see below-average temperatures by the end of next week, with snow possible in northern areas, according to the country’s Met Office. –Bloomberg

A few models show the possible cold snap for parts of the EU next week.

Colder temperatures could be arriving in North West EU in days.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Texas Refineries Could Take Two Weeks To Fully Restore Operations After Storm

December 29, 2022

Texas Refineries Could Take Two Weeks To Fully Restore Operations After Storm

Most refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast have begun procedures to restart operations that were disrupted by the massive winter storm late last week, but a full return to normal output of motor fuels could take up to two weeks for some facilities.

The freezing temperatures affected refinery equipment and caused issues at the steam and co-generation units at some refineries, sources with knowledge of the situation told Reuters on Wednesday.

Pemex’s Deer Park refinery and Motiva Enterprises’ Port Arthur, the biggest refinery in the United States, could see their restart stretched out to the first or second week of January, sources familiar with the refineries’ operations and schedules told Reuters.

Winter Storm Elliott led to hard-freeze warnings issued for all the states along the U.S. Gulf Coast, where most of the U.S. refining capacity is located.

As of Friday, December 23, as much as 1.5 million bpd of the Gulf Coast’s refining capacity was shut down due to the freezing temperatures, per Reuters estimates.

Refineries run by Motiva Enterprises, Marathon Petroleum, and TotalEnergies outside Houston were shut late last week. Operations at other refineries in Texas, run by ExxonMobil, Valero Energy, and LyondellBasell, were also disrupted by the severe winter storm.

In total, the extreme winter weather affected some of the output at refineries along the Gulf Coast that process a combined 3.58 million barrels per day (bpd) and deliver around 20% of U.S. motor fuels.

Last week, the national average gasoline price dropped for a seventh consecutive week, but it’s not certain this week will bring another decline in gasoline prices, due to the rally in oil prices and the refinery outages due to the storm, according to fuel savings app GasBuddy.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

The weather nightmare before Christmas

December 22, 2022

The weather nightmare before Christmas

A sprawling cold wave and blizzard will bring some of the nation’s most dangerous and disruptive pre-holiday weather in recent decades.

Cars travel on a highway with limited visibility during a blizzard. — Dangerous white-out conditions, such as those that closed I-87 in Oregon during a 2017 winter storm, could plague many U.S. roadways late this week. (Image credit: Oregon Department of Transportation via Flickr, CC BY 2.0)

Tens of millions of Americans will find themselves recalibrating – and in some cases canceling – holiday plans over the next week, as an exceptionally intense Arctic front plows across most of the eastern two-thirds of the United States during the run-up to Christmas Day.

Below-freezing air will push to the Gulf Coast by Christmas weekend, with readings likely to dip below zero Fahrenheit from Oklahoma to Ohio late this week. On top of this, a “bomb” cyclone (one that deepens by at least 24 millibars in 24 hours) will race from the Central Plains to the Great Lakes on Friday and Saturday, December 23-24. Fierce winds and heavy snow are expected to produce widespread blizzard conditions and shut down transportation over portions of the Great Lakes and Midwest on one of the year’s busiest travel weekends.

Heavy rains and high winds will buffet the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast before the front arrives, most likely bringing a burst of cold and a quick shot of snow around Saturday (Christmas Eve).

Update (Tuesday 2:15 pm EST): As the Arctic influx hit the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday, flights were halted at the Vancouver, British Columbia, airport, and heavy snow hammered areas north and west of Seattle.

Birch Bay via my FB page! Shared with permission. #wawx @NWSSeattle pic.twitter.com/e2u12LtdsB

— Randy Small – Whatcom County Weather (@RandySmall) December 20, 2022

There were passengers stuck on the tarmac for 12 hours overnight as heavy snow snarled operations at the Vancouver airport, leading to dozens of flight cancellations and delays. https://t.co/4W394T4ihG

— CTV News Vancouver (@CTVVancouver) December 20, 2022

…click on the above link to read the rest…

White Christmas? Meteorologists Warn Of Potential “Blizzard Over East Coast”

December 16, 2022

White Christmas? Meteorologists Warn Of Potential “Blizzard Over East Coast”

Long-range weather models forecast the increasing possibility of a white Christmas for parts of the Northeast.

“Some of the models are depicting a weather pattern taking shape that could result in very cold air pouring into the central and eastern United States next week — which could set the stage for a potential winter storm along the East Coast heading into Christmas weekend,” media outlet NJ.Com wrote.

NY NJ PA Weather’s meteorologist Steven DiMartino said there’s still uncertainty around forecasts but says signs are emerging of a potential East Coast winter storm next week.

DiMartino said atmospheric patterns and a few weather models show what appears to be a developing storm that has the “potential to be pretty impressive.”

“However, before anyone starts putting out snow maps or anything else that you might see on social media, understand there are a lot of moving parts in this storm,” he noted.

“You have a disturbance in the subtropical jet stream, interaction with the Gulf stream — which is a very warm body of water off the East Coast — and an impressive Arctic air mass driving towards all of that rising air,” DiMartino continued.

“When you have all these features come together, usually a big storm evolves … but as far as the details are concerned, I caution you not to jump on every model guidance that shows up, because a lot can change over the next couple of days,” he added.

DiMartino explained more in the YouTube video.

DiMartino said the storm’s exact timing, track, and impacts are still unknown. Such forecasts will be made available in the coming days.

Another meteorologist by the name of Joe Bastardi, who runs WeatherBELL Analytics LLC, tweeted:

…click on the above link to read the rest…

First Big Freeze Puts “Heavy Strain” On European Power Grids

December 13, 2022

First Big Freeze Puts “Heavy Strain” On European Power Grids

Europe’s cold blast is due to a weak, polar vortex split in the stratosphere, which allowed high pressure to build across Greenland last week. As a result, Arctic air poured over the energy-stricken continent, sending natural gas and power prices higher.

The unseasonably cold weather will continue through this week. North West and Central Europe are recording average temperatures well below normal, boosting residential and commercial heating demand.

In the North West region, temperatures are forecasted to average around 30 degrees Fahrenheit this week, about 10 degrees less than the 30-year mean.

A similar setup is for Central Europe.

The arrival of the cold snap has already sent UK electricity prices to record highs.

Bloomberg’s energy crisis index shows gas storage percentages full for top European countries have already flipped from injections to drawing season. Power prices in France, Germany, Italy, and the UK are elevated as the cost of producing electricity is surging.

Here’s a better view of the gas storage situation. Even though significant progress was made to refill storage in an unusually warm autumn, cold snaps will draw down supplies much quicker as supply gaps persist due to Russian flows to the continent severed at some key entry points.

“The first winter blast is placing a heavy strain on European power grids, after a mild autumn allowed utilities to replenish depleted natural gas reserves. The energy crunch has forced some countries to return to coal, with the UK’s National Grid asking two coal-fired units from its winter reserve to run on Monday,” Bloomberg reported.

In a separate report, Bloomberg outlined three reasons why Europe’s addiction to NatGas persists:

First, nuclear outages in France have resulted in the loss of a sizable chunk of electricity generation. .

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Coast-To-Coast Winter Storm Sends US NatGas Surging

December 12, 2022

Coast-To-Coast Winter Storm Sends US NatGas Surging

In what’s forecasted to be the first coast-to-coast major winter storm of the season across the Lower 48, traders have furiously panic bid US natural gas futures due to the prospects of increased heating demand.

On Sunday, wintery precipitation, powerful winds, and heavy rains battered Intermountain West as a powerful storm was set to traverse the rest of the country in the new week. The next stop for the storm is the Plains, South, and Northeast, according to The Weather Channel.

Heavy mountain snow has already blanketed parts of California’s Sierra. Snow will spread across the high country of Colorado and northern New Mexico today. Then this evening, the system moves into the Northern Plains. By night into Tuesday, heavy snow and strong winds could spark blizzard conditions across eastern Montana, eastern Wyoming, western Nebraska, the Dakotas, and Minnesota.

Later in the week, moisture from the storm and cold air will be in place in the East. However, it’s still early to forecast where snow will fall in the Northeast.

The storm is coupled with a cold blast pouring across the Lower 48 starting Friday. Temperatures are forecasted to dive between Friday and next Wednesday.

Most of the Lower 48 could be well under average temperatures.

Which means heating demand erupts.

And why energy traders are bidding NatGas prices higher this morning. At one point, prices were up 12% to $7.010/mmbtu.

Cold season is in — drawing down on inventories began on Nov. 10 (read: “US Flips Into Withdrawal Season” As NatGas Prices Surge).

Also, Freeport LNG is expected to ramp up exports out of its Texas facility soon, along with cold weather; this could keep a bid under NatGas prices this heating season.

Long-Delayed Cold Weather To Blanket Much Of US

December 8, 2022

Long-Delayed Cold Weather To Blanket Much Of US

An update to the Climate Prediction Center’s official 8-14 day outlook for pre-Christmas forecasts more than two-thirds of the Lower 48 will be colder than average, with near-normal temperatures for the Mid-Atlantic and above-average temperatures for the Northeast.

NOAA’s temperature outlook forecasts the West, Southwest, and Midwest, as well as parts of the Southeast (excluding coastal areas), will experience below-average temperatures between Dec.15-21. The forecast was issued on Dec. 7. As for the Mid-Atlantic, temperatures are expected to be around average, while temperatures in the Northeast will be above average.

Lower 48 average temperatures are currently well above average. On Wednesday, the national average was 10 degrees above a 30-year mean, though forecasts show a cold pattern will begin at the end of this week and push temperatures down well below average through Dec. 21.

Heating demand is expected to rise ahead of Christmas.

Houston-based energy firm Criterion Research pointed out on Nov. 23, “The United States has officially flipped over to withdrawal season.”

US natural gas futures bid yesterday after falling more than 27% since late November after weather forecasts for the US switched from cold to warm. Cold weather is finally on the way, which could put a bid under NatGas.

As for the Northeast, The Washington Post said, “The Mid-Atlantic and Northeast still appear on track to turn more wintry during the second half of the month. As Christmas approaches, if you’re rooting for snow, waiting is often the hardest part.”

An El Nino event has emerged in the Forecast for 2023, while the Cold La Nina impacts this Winter weather season for the final time

December 5, 2022

An El Nino event has emerged in the Forecast for 2023, while the Cold La Nina impacts this Winter weather season for the final time

La Nina has reached its peak just as the Winter 2022/2023 begins. After that, it will begin its slow breakdown process while still affecting the weather patterns over the Winter season. But we are already seeing signs that later in 2023, an El Nino could emerge after several years. It can completely change the weather patterns for the weather seasons next year.

Global climate is very sensitive to large-scale changes in the oceans. That is why we monitor these anomalies, as they can significantly influence seasonal weather patterns. Especially in Winter, when the pressure systems are strongest.

First, we will quickly analyze how these ocean anomalies actually change global weather. Then we will see how they will affect the current Winter 2022/2023 and why an emerging El Nino event is so significant.

OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE GLOBAL WEATHER

El Nino and La Nina are just opposite faces of the ENSO, which stands for “El Niño Southern Oscillation.” This region in the equatorial Pacific Ocean periodically shifts between warm and cold phases. Typically there is a phase change around every 1-3 years.

ENSO significantly influences tropical rainfall, pressure patterns, and the complex energy exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere. We can observe large-scale pressure changes in the tropics with each developing or decaying phase.

The image below shows the ENSO regions across the tropical Pacific. Regions 3 and 4 cover the east and west tropical Pacific. The main area is a combination of regions 3 and 4, seen in the image as the Nino 3.4 region.

Each ENSO phase influences the pressure and weather in the tropics in a different way. This affects the overall global circulation over time, changing the weather patterns across the world.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Peter Zeihan: You’re Being Instructed Not to Notice This!!!

November 29, 2022

Peter Zeihan: You’re Being Instructed Not to Notice This!!!

https://youtu.be/6pLAaWUUM6c

Entire Season Of Snow Could Dump On Texas Panhandle; Pipeline Operators Warned About ‘Freak Storm’

November 23, 2022

Entire Season Of Snow Could Dump On Texas Panhandle; Pipeline Operators Warned About ‘Freak Storm’

One of the snowiest spots in the country during the Thanksgiving holiday is a very unlikely place: the Texas panhandle.

Weather Underground provides two forecasts: the EURO Model beating the GFS Model regarding how much snow accumulation is expected across the Texas panhandle.

The EURO model expects 12-18 inches for a large swath of the state’s northernmost part, consisting of 26 counties. In Amarillo, forecasts show 18-24 inches.

The GFS model isn’t as severe, with a large swath of the region forecasted to receive 8-12 inches with pockets of 12-18 inches south of Amarillo.

Meteorologist John Homenuk tweeted: “The TX Panhandle needs precipitation, but I can’t say this is how I envisioned them getting it in the short term.”

Homenuk tweeted snowfall forecasts through Saturday that show much of the Texas panhandle will expect accumulating snow.

“The combination of high winds and heavy wet snow through Thursday night into Friday will create whiteout conditions which will make travel extremely dangerous,” local news ABC 7 said.

According to the National Weather Service, Texas Panhandle averages 17 inches of snow throughout the winter. If the weather models hold up, some areas could receive an entire year’s worth of snow in the next few days.

This is undoubtedly a ‘freak’ event but not unexpected, as we noted on Nov. 7 that “Frigid Weather Set To Swoop Across Country.”

The Texas Railroad Commission warned oil and gas operators across the Midland-Odessa and Panhandle regions about wintry precipitation through Friday.

The devastating cold snap of early 2021 is still fresh in the minds of millions of Texans.

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