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U.S. Top Shale Oil Fields Decline 10 Times Faster Than Global Oil Industry

U.S. Top Shale Oil Fields Decline 10 Times Faster Than Global Oil Industry

The Global Economy is heading for serious trouble when the disintegration of the U.S. Shale Oil Industry begins, likely within the next few years.  With Global GDP growth based on world oil production growth, the main driver has been the U.S. shale oil industry. This is terrible news because the top U.S. shale oil fields are declining ten times the rate as are the world’s mature oil fields.

According to the IEA, the International Energy Agency’s 2018 Executive Summary:

Natural production declines are slowing, but more investment will be needed. Each year the world needs to replace 3 mb/d of supply lost from mature fields while also meeting robust demand growth.

I have seen higher estimates of 4-4.5 million barrels per day of annual production declines from the world’s mature oil fields.  Either way, annual oil production declines from the world’s mature oil fields is a tenth of the rate from the top four U.S. shale oil fields.

If we look at the data taken from Shaleprofile.com, the top 4 U.S. shale oil fields (Permian, Bakken, Eagle Ford & Niobrara), 2018 production reached 6.6 (mbd) million barrels per day by December and then declined to 3.7 mbd by October 2019:

The top 4 U.S. shale oil fields experienced a 44% decline rate from Dec 2018 to Oct 2019… and this isn’t for the entire year.  It will take another month or so before Shaleprofile.com releases the total production figures up until December 2019. Thus, the total-year decline rate may be closer to 46-48%.

If we assume a conservative 45% decline rate from these top U.S. shale oil fields and compare it to the average decline rate from the world’s mature fields, here is the result:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Struggle Continues For Bankrupt Shale Drillers

The Struggle Continues For Bankrupt Shale Drillers

Oil rig

Remember the wave of bankruptcies that hit shale E&Ps and oilfield services providers in the shale patch between 2015 and 2017? Over those two years, more than 120 oil and gas producers filed for bankruptcy protection in the United States, figures from Haynes & Boone showed last year.

Since then, it seems that life has not been much different for many of these post-bankruptcy survivors.

Bloomberg’s Alex Nissbaum, in a recent story on the fate of those less fortunate drillers, noted SandRidge Energy as “the poster boy” for post-bankruptcy oil and gas companies that are still struggling to get back on their feet but may never succeed.

SandRidge exited bankruptcy last year but has found it difficult to return to growth mode for a number of reasons that are indicative of the challenges that remain in the U.S. shale oil and gas industry.

The most obvious one is that not all shale is created equal, whatever the industry tells us about lowering production costs and improving operational efficiencies.

Let’s forget this mantra for a moment. Everyone wants in on the Permian boom but not everybody wants in on certain parts of Oklahoma, for instance.

As one analyst told Nissbaum about the post-bankruptcy survivors, “The bottom line is a lot of these companies didn’t have very good assets to begin with. You can go through bankruptcy and wipe away debt and that’s all well and good, but the assets they ended up with are still not very attractive.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

U.S. Department of Energy Doubles Down on Shale Optimism

The U.S. stock market is not the only thing that’s gotten overheated in the last few years. Exuberance over U.S. energy output has hit a record high as natural gas production has reached its all-time peak, and oil production nears highs not seen in 47 years. Thanks to the so-called “shale revolution” (tapping previously inaccessible fossil fuels in shale rock deposits through the use of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling technologies), the U.S. government has green-lighted liquefied natural gas export terminals and pipelines and lifted the ban on oil exports. The statistical arm of the U.S. Department of Energy—the Energy Information Administration (EIA)—predicts that the United States will become a net energy exporter in the next five years, a status we haven’t enjoyed since Eisenhower was president.

Although shale development represents a remarkable technological achievement (made possible by cheap loans and questionable finances), the EIA seems to be betting heavily on the long-term prospects of tight (shale) oil and shale gas production, apparently in the erroneous belief that what goes up must keep doing so. This despite ample warning signs that the “shale revolution” will be a short-lived phenomenon. In fact, the higher production goes, the faster and sooner it will decline.

Since 2011 my colleague at Post Carbon Institute, David Hughes (an expert on fossil fuel production who worked for the Geological Survey of Canada for 32 years), has been sounding the warning bell about the danger of betting our energy future on shale. Through intensive analysis of oil and gas production data, he has identified a clear pattern of quite rapid boom and bust cycles in shale plays.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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