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US Oil Exports Are Exceeding Almost All Predictions—Thanks to Fracking

US Oil Exports Are Exceeding Almost All Predictions—Thanks to Fracking

Oil tanker in the Houston ship channel

And crude oil exports are supposed to double by 2020, according to the San Antonio News-Express. That’s a lot of oil — and almost all of it is fracked.

That should come as no surprise. In August 2015, my story for DeSmog, “Lifting Ban On U.S. Crude Oil Export Would Enable Massive Fracking Expansion,” pretty much sums up what is happening now. However, that’s not what the industry experts at the time were predicting.

Last year I noted how quickly these experts, from energy consultants to academics, were proven wrong in their predictions about the effects of overturning the 40-year-old ban, which occurred in December 2015.

If exports double by 2020, those experts will be that much more wrong. Perhaps the best example of this phenomenon is from a December 2015 newsletter from CME Group — a commodities trading group that stood to profit greatly from trading U.S.exported oil. The newsletter, which takes a question-and-answer format, included the following:

Question #2: Will lifting the crude oil export ban result in greater U.S. production?

The answer: No.

Couldn’t get more wrong that, but CME now lists U.S. WTI crude on its website as one of the top commodities it trades. I guess there’s a lesson here about whether to trust a commodities trader.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Record Oil Production Doesn’t Free U.S. From Global Market

Record Oil Production Doesn’t Free U.S. From Global Market

Oil

In the first week of July, U.S. net imports of petroleum products fell to just 1.670 million barrels per day (mb/d), the lowest weekly total on record in at least three decades.

The decline of net imports comes as the U.S. has ramped up oil production in the last few years, which affects the net import figure in two ways. Surging oil output cuts out the need for imports. Also, a steady increase in exports also pushes down the net import figure.

Crude oil exports hit a high of 3 mb/d in the third week of June.

However, the net import figure has been falling for years, and a large part of that is the fact that the U.S. has been scaling up exports of refined products, including gasoline, distillate fuel oil and propane, among others. This trend dates back longer than the recent run up in crude exports.

In 2005, weekly net imports peaked, routinely topping 13 mb/d. Now that figure has plunged to less than 2 mb/d.

With a zero net import bill in sight, is the U.S. on the verge of energy “independence,” the long sought-after goal that has been promised by just about every president dating back to Richard Nixon?

Not exactly. While the U.S. may not need oil and refined product imports in the same way that it used to, the U.S. is still completely enmeshed and intertwined with the global market. In fact, as output of oil and refined products dramatically increased over the past few years, the volume of trade also rose sharply. “Far from reducing interaction with the world, higher [light tight oil] output has contributed to increased traffic as U.S. refiners seek to diversify their crude slate and producers look for new markets,” the IEA wrote in its latest Oil Market Report.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Geopolitical Consequences Of U.S. Oil Exports

The Geopolitical Consequences Of U.S. Oil Exports

Tanker

Two crucial things happened yesterday.

The first you may have noticed – oil prices moved back up.

As for the second, most so-called “experts” seemed to have missed.

See, the environment we’re seeing in energy markets is very different from what we saw only a week ago, when oil prices were also rising.

Because yesterday also saw – for the first time in world history – a reigning Saudi Arabian monarch in Moscow for talks with Russia’s head of state.

Historically, Russia has been much closer to Iran – Saudi Arabia’s main regional enemy.

Now, King Salman and President Putin are expected to endorse the plan to extend the OPEC-Russia deal to cut oil production and boost prices beyond the current end date of March 2018.

But that’s not all they’re going to talk about…

Other, more far-ranging matters will also be on the agenda, including the war in Syria.

And the catalyst for this huge shift in global geopolitics is surprisingly simple.

It’s all about America’s record-breaking oil exports…

Russia and Saudi Arabia Need Each Other… for Now

Now, there’s no indication that Russia and Saudi Arabia are on the road to an alliance on anything beyond oil prices.

Even then, that accord remains only as long as it is in the subjective interest of the parties.

Nonetheless, it is disquieting to Washington that any such prospects may be on the horizon… or that U.S. oil exports may be introducing a range of foreign policy concerns.

From an energy perspective, the main issue at hand is the OPEC-Russian deal to cap oil production, which is now almost certain to continue further than the agreed-on end date of March next year.

And after some concerns had been raised over individual OPEC members exceeding the quotas the deal assigned them, evidence is now emerging that the restraint is holding.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Export Ban, And Exports Went…Down

Export Ban, And Exports Went…Down

According to Clipper Data market intelligence cited by the Financial Times, we’ve seen a 5 percent decline in U.S. crude oil export volumes since the beginning of this year. The data suggests that on average we are exporting (waterborne) 325,000 barrels per day now, compared to 342,000 barrels per day during the first months of 2015.

And there’s no official data yet—not since the beginning of this year, when the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) noted that during the week ending 22 January, the U.S. had exported just shy of 400,000 barrels of oil, which again was 25 percent less than what was exported for the same week in 2014.

An oil tanker that reached a French port in January was the first post-ban delivery of U.S. crude oil, but things haven’t really picked up pace since then.

January’s cargoes, totaling about 11.3 million barrels, marked a 7 percent decline from U.S. crude exports in December, according to data by the U.S. Census Bureau. Shipments during January went to Curacao and France, in addition to Canada, the primary destination. The total number of tankers that have set sail with U.S. crude oil will not be known until comprehensive data on February’s shipments is released by the U.S. Census Bureau.

The immediate beneficiaries of the ban suspension are gas and oil companies such as Chevron and Exxon Mobil—among the most tireless lobbyers against the ban—and oil trading giants such as Vitol Group BV and Trafigura Ltd Pet.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Miracle of American Oil”: Continental Resources Courted Corporate Media to Sell Oil Exports

“Miracle of American Oil”: Continental Resources Courted Corporate Media to Sell Oil Exports

document published by the Public Relations Society of America, discovered by DeSmog, reveals that from the onset of its public relations campaign, the oil industry courted mainstream media reporters to help it sell the idea of lifting the ban on crude oil exports to the American public and policymakers.

Calling its campaign the “Miracle of American Oil,” the successful PR effort to push for Congress and the White House to lift the oil exports ban was spearheaded by Continental Resources, a company known as the “King of the Bakken” shale oil basin and founded by Harold Hamm. Hamm served as energy advisor to 2012 Republican Party presidential candidate Mitt Romney.

Miracle of American Oil

Image Credit: Public Relations Society of America

The campaign launched on December 16, 2013, the 40th anniversary of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) oil embargo, and won the prestigious PRSA Silver Anvil Award.

According to the document, submitted to PRSA to detail the logistics and reach of the PR effort, it was “designed to influence public policy and/or affect legislation, regulations, political activities or candidacies — at the local, state or federal government levels.”

And it all began with a kick-off dinner in Washington, D.C., hosted by Continental Resources and attended by some of the most influential mainstream media energy reporters in the United States.

Regular readers of the Washington oil and gas industry beat will find the names of the dinner attendees, disclosed in the document, familiar.

Miracle of American Oil

Image Credit: Public Relations Society of America

“The campaign not only served as a catalyst to correct public misconceptions, but it also propelled crude oil exports to the top of the U.S. Senate’s agenda,” Continental boasted on the PRSA document.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

EIA On Board With Lifting U.S. Crude Export Ban

EIA On Board With Lifting U.S. Crude Export Ban

A new report from the Energy Information Administration adds more weight to the notion that crude oil exports from the U.S. would not damage the economy.

The EIA studied the prospect of oil exports in response to questions from Congress, and it builds on several prior reports completed by the agency over the past year and a half. The report is full of caveats and other drawbacks, but the headline takeaway could fuel political momentum to remove the export ban.

According to the results, the EIA believes that if U.S. oil production remains below 10.6 million barrels per day through the next decade, there would be few differences between leaving the export ban in place versus removing it. If production is set to rise beyond that level, however, removing export restrictions would have several effects: higher domestic oil production, higher crude exports, slightly lower gasoline prices, but also lower refined product exports.

Digging into the findings, the EIA says that if the export ban stays in place it would have the effect of maintaining the current discount at which WTI trades relative to the Brent crude marker. Moreover, if U.S. oil production increases, the spread between WTI and Brent would only widen, perhaps as high as $10 per barrel under one scenario. And that spread would increase in corresponding fashion the more U.S. oil production increases.

Related: Financial Sector To Cut Credit Supply Lines For Oil And Gas Industry

Of course, removing the export ban would shrink that spread, allowing for higher oil prices at the wellhead for American oil and gas drillers. That would incentivize more drilling, leading to higher oil output than would otherwise occur under the export ban.

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

40 % of US petroleum product exports didn’t grow since 2011

40 % of US petroleum product exports didn’t grow since 2011

This is another post in the series on how US tight oil has impacted on global oil markets. This time we look at US petroleum product exports.

(1) Destination of US product exports

Fig 1: US petroleum product exports by destination and type of growth

Data source: http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_expc_a_EP00_EEX_mbblpd_a.htm

Exports started to grow already in 2005, a year which appears in many graphs as a turning point. While the growth looks impressive, around 40% of US exports no longer increased since 2011, a year after the very beginning of the tight oil boom (see 1,500 kb/d grid line in Fig 1)

Note that in all graphs of this post 2014 figures have been estimated with data up to October 2014, without seasonal adjustments.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Low Prices Driving Record U.S. Crude Oil Exports Despite Crude Oil Export Ban

Low Prices Driving Record U.S. Crude Oil Exports Despite Crude Oil Export Ban

Are you more desperate to get a better deal when you’re poor? I guess you are.”

That was John Auers, executive vice president of oil industry consulting firm Turner Mason & Company, describing the oil industry as being “poor” and “desperate” to Bloomberg.

As the oil industry cries poverty due to low oil prices in an effort to justify its attempts to lift all restrictions on exporting crude oil produced in the U.S., it is helpful to remember that this is an industry that was demanding tax breaks for oil production even when, in 2013, the top 5 companies made a combined $93 billion in profits. In just the second quarter of 2014 alone, a year of poverty and desperation, as the industry tells it, ExxonMobilmade $8.8 billion in profit.

The “better deals” that John Auers was talking about are to be found on the global market, which technically isn’t open to those “poor” U.S. crude oil producers due to the crude oil export ban. Crude oil that is produced in the U.S. is worth more if it is sold on the world market than if it is sold in the United States.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Dumb and Dumber: U.S. Crude Oil Export

Dumb and Dumber: U.S. Crude Oil Export

Exporting crude oil and natural gas from the United States are among the dumbest energy ideas of all time.
Exporting gas is dumb.
Exporting oil is dumber.
The U.S. imports almost half of the crude oil that we use. We import 7.5 million barrels per day.  The chart below shows the EIA prediction that production will slowly fall and imports will rise (AEO 2014) after 2016.
(click image to enlarge)
This means that the U.S. will never be self-sufficient in oil. Not even close.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

U.S. Easing of Oil Exports Challenges OPEC’s Strategy – Bloomberg

U.S. Easing of Oil Exports Challenges OPEC’s Strategy – Bloomberg.

The Obama administration’s move to allow exports of ultralight crude without government approval may encourage shale drilling and thwart Saudi Arabia’s strategy to curb U.S. output, further weakening oil markets, according to Citigroup Inc.

A type of crude known as condensate can be exported if it is run through a distillation tower, which separates the hydrocarbons that make up the oil, according to U.S. government guidelines published yesterday. That may boost supplies ready to be sold overseas to as much as 1 million barrels a day by the end of 2015, Citigroup analysts led by Ed Morse in New Yorksaid in an e-mailed report.

Saudi Arabia led the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to maintain its production quota at a meeting last month even as a shale boom boosted U.S. output to the highest in more than three decades. That prompted speculation OPEC was willing to let prices fall to force some companies with higher drilling costs to stop pumping.

“U.S. producers are under the gun to reduce capital expenditures given lower prices,” Citigroup said in the report. “Now an export route provides a new lease on life that can further weaken crude oil markets and throw a monkey wrench into recent Saudi plans to cripple U.S. production.”

Peak Oil Notes – Oct 23

Peak Oil Notes – Oct 23.

New York oil futures traded around $82 a barrel this week until Wednesday’s stocks report showed an unexpected 7 million barrel jump in US crude stocks. The jump resulted in a nearly $2 decline in the futures market to a close of $80.52 a barrel, the lowest settlement since June of 2012.  London’s crude, which had been trading around $86 slid $1.51 on Wednesday to a close of $84.71.  Refinery maintenance is in full swing with utilization down to 86.7 percent, the lowest since March, as changeover to winter blends continues.  Refinery maintenance, the primary cause of the crude inventory build, is now at its peak, but should be over in a few weeks. Gasoline inventories fell last week due to less production, but distillates increased as demand for heating oil and diesel is currently weak.

US natural gas futures fell to a new 11-month low on Wednesday as traders are expecting that Thursday’s report will show that a larger than normal amount of gas was injected into storage last week. Mild weather, with minimal demand for heating gas, is expected to continue across the US for the next couple of weeks and long-range forecasts are predicting that really cold weather will not settle in across the US until January.

…click on the link above to read the rest of the article…

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