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Blowout Week 241

Blowout Week 241

This week’s lead story features YouTube, which is fighting what it considers to be the misinformation  on videos posted by global warming dissenters with fact-checking boxes (inset), with the data sourced from Wikipedia. We continue with Saudi Arabia’s oil production – is it up or down?; the Saudi/Canada standoff; US LNG and Nord Stream 2; coal in Poland and China; nuclear in France and India; the Laos hydro dam collapse; Australia’s national energy guarantee; the hydrogen-to-ammonia “breakthrough”; renewables to power Blockchain; renewables and the UK capacity market; subsidies for UK SMRs; climate change to cause more windless periods and how to save the planet – give up meat.

Mail: YouTube places Wikipedia entries below videos ‘refuting evidence of global warming’

YouTube is fighting back against climate change deniers by implementing a fact-checking box below user-uploaded videos on the controversial topic.

The system will surface information from Wikipedia or Britannica Encyclopedia to display factual information in bitesize chunks below videos on climate change. The feature is the latest step from the Google-owned video platform in its battle to reduce the spread of misinformation and conspiracy theories on the service. At the moment, the scientific fact-checking blurbs are only visible to US-based users, however, YouTube is slowly rolling-out the feature to viewers worldwide. YouTube says the policy is designed to give users easy access to external information to provide context and information on topics prone to misinformation.

Oil Price: OPEC Oil Production Surges 340,000 Bpd As Saudis Pump Near Record

Last month, OPEC produced an average of 32.66 million bpd of crude oil, including production from its newest member the Republic of Congo. The biggest OPEC producer, Saudi Arabia, pumped 10.63 million bpd in July, up by 240,000 bpd from June and its highest level since its record of 10.66 million bpd from August 2016, according to Platts survey archives.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Canada Frees Itself From Saudi Oil Imports

Canada Frees Itself From Saudi Oil Imports

Canada

The ongoing political row between Canada and Saudi Arabia over Ottawa’s demand that the kingdom release detained women’s rights activists in the country is picking up momentum. Earlier this week, Saudi Arabia ordered the Canadian ambassador to leave Saudi Arabia “within 24 hours” after his country criticized the recent arrest of Saudi women’s rights activists.

However, Saudi Arabia, showing heightened sensitivity into what it perceives as foreign intrusion into its own affairs, upped the ante even more, by saying it would freeze “all new business” between the kingdom and Canada and also in an admittedly knee-jerk response, recalled thousands of Saudi students attending Canadian universities, a move to hurt Canada financially.

Omar Allam, a former Canadian diplomat and head of Allam Advisory Group, said the recall of 12,000 to 15,000 Saudi students from Canada, and accompanying relatives, is going to remove as much as CAD$2 billion in annual investment in the Canadian economy.

Ratcheting up rhetoric

“Any further step from the Canadian side in that direction will be considered as acknowledgment of our right to interfere in the Canadian domestic affairs,” the Saudi Foreign Ministry said. “Canada and all other nations need to know that they can’t claim to be more concerned than the kingdom over its own citizens.”

Canada, however, sees the situation differently. “Canada will always stand up for the protection of human rights, very much including women’s rights, and freedom of expression around the world,” Marie-Pier Baril, a spokeswoman for Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland said in a statement. “Our government will never hesitate to promote these values and believes that this dialogue is critical to international diplomacy.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“What They Did Was Unacceptable”: Saudis To Dump Canadian Assets “No Matter The Cost”

Update 2: Saudi foreign minister Adel Al-Jubeir has made a new statement – attempting to talk back The Kingdom’s rhetoric somewhat (or perhaps avoid sending its Canadian asset prices tumbling into a firesale).

“What Canada did was unacceptable.

Canada committed a big mistake, must rectify it.

We in Saudi Arabia do not accept dictation, interference.

There is no need for mediation, Canada knows what it needs to do, it must change its policies, ways with The Kingdom.

The Saudi measures only apply to new investments [ZH: so no immediate asset dumping]

Saudis are still weighing other measures to take against Canada.

The Loonie rebounded:

*  *  *

Update 1: Russia has sided with Saudi Arabia in the ongoing diplomatic rift with Canada on Wednesday, issuing a statement accusing the latter of attempting to “politicize human rights issues.”

The statement said Russia rejected the “authoritative tone” of Canada toward Saudi Arabia, adding that the Kingdom had the full sovereign right to manage its own affairs.

“We consistently and firmly advocate compliance with universal human rights with due regard for the specific national customs and traditions that developed in a given country over a long period of time. We have always said that the politicization of human rights matters is unacceptable,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in a statement posted on the ministry’s website.

*  *  *

The Saudis have escalated their fury towards Trudeau’s “progressive” propaganda. Having expelled the Canadian ambassador, froze new trade and investment with the G7 member, suspended a student exchange program and halted Saudi Arabian Airlines flights to Canada, the Saudis are stepping up their pressure very directly.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Why Saudi Oil Production Suddenly Dropped

Why Saudi Oil Production Suddenly Dropped

Oil jacks

As if oil market participants haven’t had enough conflicting market forces to digest over the past week, reports that Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production surprisingly dropped in July by around 200,000 bpd from June further confounded the market and sent oil prices rising on Monday.

Last week, several surveys of OPEC’s crude oil production in July showed that the cartel is pumping at high rates, and Saudi Arabia is nearing its production record. But on Friday, Saudi sources and OPEC sources told news agencies that the Saudi oil production was not even close to record figures—and it actually dropped last month compared to June.

The Saudis pumped 10.29 million bpd in July, Saudi sources told S&P Global Platts on Friday. On the same day, two OPEC sources told Reuters that Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in July was 10.29 million bpd.

According to OPEC’s secondary sources, the ones the cartel uses to calculate quotas and compliance, Saudi Arabia’s oil production had jumped in June by 405,400 bpd compared to May, to reach 10.420 million bpd.

According to a Reuters survey from last week, Saudi Arabia’s production in July was 10.65 million bpd, but exports were close to June’s levels because the Saudis increased domestic use at power plants and refineries. OPEC’s crude oil production jumped by 340,000 bpd in July from June, as Saudi Arabia pumped near-record volumes, the S&P Global Platts survey showed on Friday.

The numbers leaked by Saudi and OPEC sources on Friday are in stark contrast with many of the surveys.

Some of the Platts survey participants think that Saudi Arabia may have trouble placing its barrels on the market, and demand for Saudi crude may not have been as robust as the Kingdom had expected.

“I think what they’re trying to do is, there’s a story in the market that the Saudis and the UAE and Kuwaitis and Russians were all vastly increasing production well ahead of any cutbacks from Iran, and I think they are trying to change the narrative,” a Platts survey participant said.

Diplomatic Feud Goes “Nuclear”: Saudis Start Dumping Canadian Assets “No Matter The Cost”

The Saudis have escalated their fury towards Trudeau’s “progressive” propaganda. Having expelled the Canadian ambassador, froze new trade and investment with the G7 member, suspended a student exchange programme and halted Saudi Arabian Airlines flights to Canada, the Saudis are stepping up their pressure very directly.

The FT reports that the Saudi central bank and state pension funds have instructed their overseas asset managers to dispose of their Canadian equities, bonds and cash holdings “no matter the cost.”

Third-party managers are estimated to be mandated to invest more than $100bn of Saudi funds in global markets, executives say. While the proportion of that figure invested in Canadian holdings would be “fairly small in absolute terms,” the asset sale sent a strong message, one of the people said.

The sell-off began on Tuesday and underlines how the Gulf monarchy is flexing its financial and political muscle to warn foreign powers against what it regards as interference in its sovereign affairs.

“This is severe stuff,” said one banker.

The most immediate reaction appears to be in the currency…

Why are the Saudis doing this (aside from responding to Ottawa’s criticism of the arrest of a female activist)?

One Twitter wit noted – “to secure funding for the Tesla LBO?”

Saudi retreat on oil IPO highlights dearth of reliable information on world oil reserves

Saudi retreat on oil IPO highlights dearth of reliable information on world oil reserves

Since late 2016 the financial media has been abuzz about what would likely be the biggest initial public offering (IPO) ever: The sale of 5 percent of the world’s largest oil company, Saudi Aramco, which is wholly owned by the government of Saudi Arabia. The IPO with its required disclosures would shed light on the inner workings of the company for the first time since it was nationalized in 1980 and lead to independent verification of its oil reserves and other assets.

It would be a large first step in unmasking the murky world of national oil companies (NOCs), the reserves of which are thought to represent 90 percent of the world’s total reserves of oil and natural gas according to one estimate.

With estimates that Saudi Aramco is worth $2 trillion, the sale of 5 percent to public shareholders potentially represents $100 billion, a valuation that would make such an IPO an all-time record and result in roughly $1 billion in fees for the lucky bankers handling the deal.

All that anticipation, however, has now come crashing down as the Saudi government seeks the funds it might have gotten from an IPO through other avenues. So, what happened?

First, oil prices rose significantly. When the Saudi government officially confirmed that it was seeking an IPO for Aramco in October 2016, Brent crude, the world benchmark, averaged just under $50 per barrel that month. While the IPO was being considered earlier that year, oil had dropped below $30. Last week it closed just below $75.

The government was thought to be desperate to reduce its rising deficits—due in large part to a precipitous drop in oil prices—by selling a part of the company. That seems an unlikely reason for the sale since the Saudis have ample money in a sovereign wealth fund and substantial credit with major banks.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Madness Gripping Washington

The Madness Gripping Washington

The Madness Gripping Washington

The United States and Israel have been threatening Iran for something like twenty years, using the pretext that it was developing a nuclear weapon initially, but also more recently declaring that Tehran has become a threat to the entire Middle East. Both contentions are essentially lies, concocted by an Israel and Saudi Arabia that would prefer to have Iran removed as a possible impediment to their own ambitions. And they would like the United States to do the removing.

Iran is the hottest of all hot spots in the American view, but the tendency of the White House to threaten first before engaging in negotiations has meant that most nations have come to see the United States as the greatest threat to peace worldwide. In a recent interview, Russian President Vladimir Putin observed how the U.S. believes it can intervene militarily anywhere in the world because it is “spreading democracy,” a justification that no one believes in any event as the results of recent crusades in Afghanistan, Syria and Libya have been less that encouraging. Putin commented that Washington should treat all other nations with respect and it will then get respect – and cooperation – in return.

The track record of the Trump White House is not encouraging. It has twice launched barrages of cruise missiles against targets in Syria based on fabricated or incomplete intelligence suggesting that the government in Damascus had used chemical weapons against its own people. It also uniquely added juvenile humiliation to the American diplomatic arsenal, with Trump describing North Korean leader Kim Jong-un as a “rocket man” before going off into a rhapsody about how the nuclear arsenal button accessible to Trump was “bigger and more powerful” than that available to Pyongyang.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Saudi oil shipment halt: A potential watershed in the Yemen war

Saudi oil shipment halt: A potential watershed in the Yemen war

A spike in oil prices as a result of a temporary halt in shipments through the strategic Bab el Mandeb strait may be short-lived, but the impact on Yemen’s three-year-old forgotten war is likely to put the devastating conflict on the front burner.

The halt following a Saudi assertion that Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen had attacked two Saudi oil tankers traversing the waterway drives home the threat the conflict poses to a chokepoint in international trade and the flow of Gulf oil to world markets. The Houthis said they had attacked a Saudi warship rather than oil tankers.

An estimated 4.8 million barrels of oil are shipped daily through Bab al Mandeb that connects the Red Sea with the Arabian Sea off the coast of Yemen, Djibouti, and Eritrea.

The halt of oil shipments could provoke an escalation of the conflict with external powers intervening in a bid to assist Saudi Arabia and the UAE in defeating the Houthis and dealing a blow to Iran’s regional presence.

By the same token, the halt potentially offers Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates an opportunity to focus international attention on resolving a civil war aggravated and turned into a regional conflict by the two Gulf states’ military intervention in March 2015.

Rather than proving to be a swift campaign that would have subdued the Houthis, the intervention has turned into a quagmire and a public relations fiasco for Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

International criticism of their conduct of the war is mounting as a result of its devastating human cost. Voices in the US Congress, the British parliament and other Western legislatures as well as human rights groups calling for a halt of arms sales to Saudi Arabiaare growing ever louder.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Saudi and American Way

The Saudi and American Way

The Saudi and American Way

The U.S.-Saudi-UAE “Operation Restoring Hope” has become their plan to bomb the food-supply route that the residents in the Shiite Houthi area of Yemen rely upon in order to receive food, and thereby for the U.S.-Saudi-UAE alliance to win their war against the Houthis — who are Shiites — and to take full control over Yemen, by forcing this Houthi population to either surrender to the Sauds’ strict Sunni rule, or else starve to death. Saudi Arabia, on occasion, bombs its own Shia areas; so, doing it in its neighbor Yemen is no stretch for them. However, the Shiites inside Saudi Arabia aren’t also being starved to death. Starving Shiites to death is something new for Saudi Arabia’s troops. And, therefore, the troops who have this assignment, seem to be, perhaps, squeamish about it; but, in any case, they evidently need some ‘moral’ guidance, in order to do it.

On July 10th, the owner of Saudi Arabia, the royal Saud family (by means of the Crown Prince), issued a proclamation providing absolution in advance for any bloodshed, torture, rape, or anything else, that their troops perpetrate in their “Operation Restoring Hope.” Now, whatever the troops of Saudi Arabia do, to conquer Yemen, has been officially approved in advance. These soldiers won’t need to fear any repercussions against themselves. Whatever they do, is officially okay — it’s been authorized in advance.

Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Salman al-Saud — who will inherit ownership of Saudi Arabia when the current King Salman al-Saud dies — issued the July 10th decree, and this decree will be presented here, in full.

For some reason, which the decree doesn’t state, this decree was viewed by Prince Salman to be necessary, in order for the U.S.-Saudi-UAE alliance to carry “Operation Restoring Hope” to a successful completion — victory. (“Restoring Hope” to the victors.)

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Oil Jumps After Saudis Say August Exports To Slide

Trump is about to have another OPEC twitter meltdown.

With oil sliding in recent days on a combination of greater inventory builds and production increases both in the US and in places like Libya and Canada, moments ago WTI jumped as much as 1.6% after it was  trading as much as -1.4% following a Bloomberg report that Saudi Arabia claims that they expect a “substantial stock draws due to robust demand” in the second half, that Saudi crude exports in July will be equal to June’s and that August exports will drop by 100kb/d.

This is notable as so far this month, third party sources have reported that Saudi exports have been far lower than the large production increase that was supposed to happen.

The statement by the Saudi Energy Ministry also notes that an oversupplied market “repels potential investment in the oil industry, curtailing future supply”, and finally that Saudi Arabia will “only export barrels that are earmarked to match confirmed lifting requests by end users, and does not try to push oil into the market beyond its customers’ needs.”

The most likely reason for the sharp kneejerk higher is that many of the shorts that had piled on in recent days got spooked and promptly covered, sending WTI just shy of $70, a $2 swing on the day, and a move that may lead Trump to further angry tweeting in the next few hours.

Spare Capacity: The Biggest Mystery In Oil Markets

Spare Capacity: The Biggest Mystery In Oil Markets

Oil Rig Offshore

With around 2.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) of Iranian supply targeted by the Trump administration, how will the oil market cope with the losses? Is there enough supply capacity to make up for the shortfall?

There is a great deal of debate about the true extent of the world’s spare capacity. Or, more precisely, there are a range of guesses over how much surplus is located in Saudi Arabia, the one country that really has the ability to ramp up large volumes of supply on short notice.

Saudi Arabia claims it could produce 12.5 mb/d if it really needed to. However, that claim has not been put to the test. Saudi Arabia’s all-time highest level of production was just over 10.7 mb/d in 2016, just before it helped engineer the OPEC+ production cuts.

Adding around 2 mb/d of extra supply – as President Trump demands – is a tall order. “More recent history shows Saudi has never produced more than 10.6mn b/d on average over a single month. And even in the recent period, we have observed a steep decline in domestic Saudi oil inventories,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch wrote in a note, arguing that there is plenty of reason to question the notion that Saudi Arabia has around 2 mb/d of idled capacity. “Thus, it appears the oil market has little confidence that Iran volumes can be easily replaced.”

The International Energy Agency estimates that there is around 1.1 mb/d of total global spare capacity that can truly be ramped up in a short period of time. A looser definition of spare capacity that encompasses the ability to add supply over several months puts the figure at about 3.4 mb/d, 60 percent of which is located in Saudi Arabia. Smaller additions come from the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq and Russia.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Saudi Arabia was supposed to pump almost 14 mb/d in 2018

Saudi Arabia was supposed to pump almost 14 mb/d in 2018

Trump_tweet_Saudi_pump_more_30Jun2018

We have to dig a little bit into history to see the context of this remarkable tweet whereby we have to switch between events and later, delayed analysis with the benefit of hindsight.

10 years ago GW Bush visited Saudi Arabia:

President Bush stands with Saudi Prince Salman, right, brother of Saudi King Abdullah, while watching a traditional sword dance at the Al Murabba Palace and Natural History Museum in Al Janadriyah, Saudi Arabia, Tuesday, Jan. 15, 2008. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)

Fig 2: Sword dance in January 2008
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/bob-cesca/president-bush-shouldnt-p_b_81998.html

15 Jan 2008
“I will say to him [King Abdullah] that, ‘If it’s possible, your majesty, consider what high prices is doing to one of your largest customers,’” Bush said. “In other words, the worst thing that can happen to an oil-producing nation is that the price of oil causes the economy to slow down, because that will inevitably lead to fewer purchases [of oil].”
https://abcnews.go.com/Nightline/Politics/story?id=4136209&page=1

The above ABC News story includes a reference to an interview which co-anchor Terry Moran had with Bush who noted: “If they don’t have a lot of additional oil to put on the market, it is hard to ask somebody to do something they may not be able to do.”

The original video link is broken but the wording has been documented by Gail the Actuary (Atlanta, Georgia) in this Oildrum post.

Obviously, Bush had realized what was going on. 3 years earlier he had already tried it, when oil prices went through the $50 mark.

26 Apr 2005
CRAWFORD, Tex., April 25 – President Bush discussed the surge in oil prices with Crown Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia on Monday, but focused on a plan by the Saudis to increase their oil-pumping capacity over the next decade rather than on any short-term efforts to bring prices down.

Saudi Arabia’s plan, which it began discussing publicly weeks ago, calls for spending up to $50 billion to increase its maximum sustainable production capacity to 12.5 million barrels a day by 2009, and to 15 million in the subsequent decade, from about 10.8 million barrels now. The Saudis are currently pumping about 9.5 million barrels a day.

https://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/26/world/middleeast/bush-and-saudi-prince-discuss-high-oil-prices-in-ranch.html

This was the plan:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

US, Iran Clash in Hormuz Strait: Not an Improbable Scenario

US, Iran Clash in Hormuz Strait: Not an Improbable Scenario

US, Iran Clash in Hormuz Strait: Not an Improbable Scenario

The US remains adamant in its desire to cut Iran’s oil exports to zero, even if it hurts importing countries. America’s secondary sanctions on firms dealing with Iran would “snap back” on August 6 for trade in cars and metals and on November 4 for oil and banking transactions. The “wind down” period varied between 90 and 180 days is intended to allow entities to end businesses in Iran. There will be no waivers. India, China and Turkey are the oil importers expected not to succumb to US pressure.

Brian Hook, the State Department’s director of policy and planning, said “Our goal is to increase pressure on the Iranian regime by reducing to zero its revenue from crude oil sales.” The US has already approached Saudi Arabia on the subject of increasing exports to compensate for the reduction of Iranian oil on the world market.

The goal is to hit Iran’s economy against the background of ongoing protests inside the country. Last July, John Bolton openly called for regime change in Tehran. He was not national security adviser at the time but nothing makes believe he has changed his views since then.

Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani warned the United States about consequences. He said shipments from other countries would be disrupted if Iranian oil exports were suspended. Qassem Solaimani, the commander of the Al Quds Force in the Revolutionary Guards, joined him to confirm that his country will block oil shipments through the Hormuz Strait if the US administration stops Iranian oil exports. Mohammad Ali Jafari, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said that “either all can use the Strait of Hormuz or no one.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Saudi Arabia Won’t Bring 2 Million Bpd Online

Saudi Arabia Won’t Bring 2 Million Bpd Online

Oil tanker

President Trump said in a tweet on Saturday that Saudi Arabia agreed to boost oil production by 2 million barrels per day (mb/d), a claim that surely came as news to the Saudis.


Just spoke to King Salman of Saudi Arabia and explained to him that, because of the turmoil & disfunction in Iran and Venezuela, I am asking that Saudi Arabia increase oil production, maybe up to 2,000,000 barrels, to make up the difference…Prices to high! He has agreed!


The tightening of the oil market has pushed up prices, which is always a concern for U.S. politicians wary of catching heat from their constituents.

The decision by OPEC+ in June to hike production by 1 mb/d looks increasingly inadequate in dealing with the growing number of supply outages around the world. It’s no surprise that Trump wants more Saudi oil on the market, but he likely misunderstood what the Saudis told him.

Saudi Arabia was producing 10 mb/d in May and recent reports suggest they might add as much as 800,000 bpd to 1 mb/d in July, a massive increase in such a short period of time.

But it’s a far cry from the 2 mb/d that Trump thinks Saudi Arabia will add. That would translate into overall production of around 12 mb/d, which is probably unrealistic for a few reasons.

First, there are technical questions about how far and how fast Saudi Arabia can push its oil fields. Can they ramp up to 12 mb/d? Probably, but there is not a lot of historical evidence to go on. Also, they probably can’t do it immediately, it would take time, perhaps more than a year.

The second – and more important – reason why Saudi Arabia won’t comply with Trump’s wishes to add another 2 mb/d onto the market is that they don’t want to.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Iran Furious After Trump Calls Saudi King, Demands 2MM Barrel Production Boost 

Update: as expected, it did not take long for Iran – which has the most to lose from any Saudi output hike which would not only send the price of oil lower but also allow Riyadh to capture Iran’s sanctioned market  share – to respond, and moments ago Bloomberg reported that in an interview with Hossein Kazempour Ardebili, Iran’s OPEC governor, he said that “if Saudi Arabia accepts U.S. President Donald Trump’s request to boost output, that means he is calling on them to walk out from OPEC.

“We are 15 countries in an agreement. Set aside that they do not have the capacity, there is no way one country could go 2 million b/d above their production allocation unless they are walking out of OPEC.”

Well, if they don’t have the capacity (which they do), there is no reason to be concerned. And yet Iran is precisely that, and considering that Trump said Saudi Arabia has “agreed” to his demand, we may have just witnessed the end of OPEC.

* * *

Earlier this week, when within minutes of each other, news hit last Tuesday that first Saudi Arabia would boost production to a record 10.8mmb/d, an increase of nearly 1 million barrels per day from the Kingodm’s current 10.03mmb/d output, only to be followed almost immediately by a warning from the State Department advising US allies of a crackdown on Iran, and demanding they cut their Iranian oil exports to 0 by the Nov. 4 deadline, oil first dipped then spiked, as the market weighed the news of the potential drop in Iranian production far more than any potential Saudi output: after all that was already largely priced in during last weekend’s OPEC summit.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai II: Exodus
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