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Contrarian Thoughts on the Petro-Yuan and Gold-Backed Currencies

Contrarian Thoughts on the Petro-Yuan and Gold-Backed Currencies

Rather than cheer the concept of a new currency, we’re better served to look at the velocity of that currency and the cycles of investing that currency in assets denominated in that currency for a low-risk return.

Longtime readers know not to expect me to rubber-stamp anything, be it the status quo or proposed alternatives. Our interests are best served by screening everything through the mesh of independent analysis, a.k.a. contrarianism. Which brings us to the two sources of alt-media excitement in the currency space, the petro-yuan and another wave of proposed <i<>gold-backed currencies.

I’m all for competing currencies. The more transparent and open the market for currencies, the better. In my view, everyone should be able to buy and trade whatever currencies they feel best suits their goals and purposes.

In all the excitement over de-dollarization, some basics tend to get overlooked.

1. The yuan remains pegged to the US dollar, so it remains a proxy for the USD. It will only become a true reserve currency when China lets the yuan float freely on the global FX market and yuan-denominated bonds also float freely on global bond markets. In other words, a currency can only be a reserve currency rather than a proxy if the price and risk of the currency is discovered by global markets, not centralized monetary/state authorities.

2. Most commentators stop on first base of the oil-currency cycle: China buys oil from exporting nations by exchanging yuan for oil. So far so good. But what can the oil exporters do with the yuan? That’s the tricky part: the petro-yuan has to work not just for China but for the oil exporters who will be accumulating billions of yuan.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Poszar Was Right: Saudis Confirm Non-Dollar Oil Trade Plans In Davos

Poszar Was Right: Saudis Confirm Non-Dollar Oil Trade Plans In Davos

Earlier this month, former NY Fed repo guru Zoltan Pozsar wrote one of his most important reports of 2022, in which he described how Putin could unleash hell on the Western financial system by demanding that instead of dollars, Russian oil exporters are paid in gold, effectively pegging oil to gold and launching Petrogold.

Then, China’s President Xi visit with Saudi and GCC leaders marked the birth of the petroyuan and a leap in China’s growing encumbrance of OPEC+’s oil and gas reserves: that’s because with the China-GCC Summit, “China can now claim to have built a ‘special relationship’ not only with the ‘+’ sign in OPEC+ (Russia), but with Iran and all of OPEC+.”

At the time, Zoltan urged the reader to think of the timing of this statement in a diplomatic sense:

“President Xi communicated his message on “renminbi invoicing” not during the first day of his visit – when he met only the Saudi leadership – but during the second day of his visit – when he met the leadership of all the GCC countries – to signal the following:

GCC oil flowing East + renminbi invoicing = the dawn of the petroyuan.

And now, according to Bloomberg, Saudi Arabia is open to discussions about trade in currencies other than the US dollar, according to the kingdom’s finance minister.

“There are no issues with discussing how we settle our trade arrangements, whether it is in the US dollar, whether it is the euro, whether it is the Saudi riyal,” Mohammed Al-Jadaan told Bloomberg TV on Tuesday in an interview in Davos.

“I don’t think we are waving away or ruling out any discussion that will help improve the trade around the world,” Al-Jadaan said.

And echoing Poszar’s comments above, Al-Jadaan appeared to confirm The Kingdom’s goal seeking to strengthen its relationship with crucial trade partners, most notably China:

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Canada, the Petroyuan Thesis, and Balance of Trade Issues in Pictures

As NAFTA negotiations linger on, let’s step back and see what Trump’s threats are all about.

The US has had a goods surplus with Canada every month since 1985.

Nonetheless, Trump is incredibly annoyed at Canada and threatens to put tariffs on Canadian cars.

Well, Trump better make that US cars because Canada does not have any Canadian car brands.

The US would lose far more from Canadian tariffs on cars than vice-versa. But both sides would lose in such a war.

Tariffs are a tax on consumers. No one wins from them.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau indicated on Tuesday that Canada would not compromise on key demands at high-level talks this week with the United States to update the North American Free Trade Agreement.

“No NAFTA is better than a bad NAFTA deal for Canadians and that’s what we are going to stay with.”

U.S. President Donald Trump – who signed a NAFTA side deal with Mexico last week – has threatened to impose auto tariffs on Canada or exclude it from the three-nation pact unless an agreement can be struck quickly.

Trudeau made clear, however, he would insist on keeping the so-called Chapter 19 dispute-resolution mechanism that Washington wants to scrap.

“We will not sign a deal that is bad for Canadians, and quiet frankly, not having a Chapter 19 to ensure the rules are followed would be bad for Canadians,” he said.

He also said existing protections that ban U.S. media firms from buying Canadian cultural industries such as television stations and newspapers must be maintained.

Legitimate Gripes and Plain Silliness

Trump has a legitimate gripe about dairy products, but the US sugar, corn, an ethanol lobbies are just as bad if indeed not far worse.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Petroyuan is Only the Beginning, Pop Goes the Metals Market

Petroyuan is Only the Beginning, Pop Goes the Metals Market

No boom today.  Boom tomorrow.  There’s always a boom tomorrow”

— Susan Ivanova “Babylon 5”

When Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX) bought the London Metals exchange in 2012 all the speculation about about the effects on gold trading.  The primary reason for buying the LME was to obtain its warehouses and ensure a free flow of metals to points east.

What it also did was give them control over what type and kind of futures contracts could be traded on their exchanges.  No longer would the west control this very important part of the precious and industrial metal supply chain.

Now we’re seeing the next evolution of the power of owning the exchange.   After successfully launching a yuan-denominated gold futures contract last year, the LME is now preparing to issue a range of yuan-denominated metals futures.

In other words… Boom.

First Rule: Do No Harm

When China bought the LME the usual suspects in the contrarian investing community talked about the coming apocalypse for the bullion banks.  It never happened. In fact, China was in a position to help them cap the price of gold and extend the gold bear market for the past six years while it and its strategic partners, namely Russia, accumulated vast quantities of the world’s most important metal.

The Chinese were smart. Take over the LME and, for a while, change nothing. Don’t upset the apple cart and allow markets to operate mostly normally.  Now their ownership of the LME is not an issue.

Until now.  First gold trading in Yuan. Now the rest of the metals.

We’ve all been breathlessly focused on how strong the so-called ‘petroyuan’ oil futures contract has been for the Shanghai Exchange.  It has captured more than 12% of the total oil futures market in just under two months.  That’s incredible.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Another Step Towards Collapse of Petrodollar

Another Step Towards Collapse of Petrodollar

image/youtube screen grab

For the past year and half a major topic throughout the alternative press has been the new Chinese oil futures contract settled/priced in yuan. The fact that China is directly challenging the Federal Reserve Note, U.S. dollar, is quiet a significant change. For those that have been paying attention this new futures oil contract is nothing more than the next step in China moving completely away from the Federal Reserve Note, and the “world reserve currency” system and towards a multi-polar world with several currencies being used for international trade.

Ken Schortgen, Jr., The Daily Economist, recently penned an article about Nigeria approving a currency swap agreement with China, stating,

It has been a little more than a month since China officially began offering oil futures contracts denominated in the Yuan currency, but early results continue to be positive for this contract to over time take more and more market share from the West and the Petrodollar.  And with Iran, Qatar, and even Venezuela having already agreed to buy and sell their oil in currencies other than the dollar, a new currency swap agreement signed on May 3 between Nigeria and China could mean that a fourth OPEC nation could also soon be leaving the Petrodollar.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has signed a currency swap deal worth about $2.5 billion with the People’s Bank of China to provide adequate local currency liquidity for transactions between national businesses, The Punch newspaper reported on Thursday, citing a high-ranking official from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). Sputnik News

The Daily Economist

While China pursued currency swaps as far back as 1997, during the “Asian financial crisis”, none of the agreements were ever activated. That all changed with the global financial meltdown in 2008. China began actively pursuing, and instituting, direct currency swaps and even went so far as to open “Renminbi Clearing Centers” around the world including Canada, the backyard of the U.S.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

China’s Growing Oil Demand Has Created A Geopolitical Dilemma

China’s Growing Oil Demand Has Created A Geopolitical Dilemma

oil pipeline

China has become the world’s largest oil importer, and despite establishing the largely successful yuan-denominated oil futures, Beijing will have to grapple with an overlooked geopolitical and economic consequence as it seeks to quench its thirst for oil and gas.

As China relies more on both foreign crude oil imports and imported gas in the form of LNG and piped gas from neighboring countries, the outflow of petro-dollars or in this case petro-yuan will see the country contend with the decades-long dilemma that the U.S. faced; a massive transfer of capital to foreign oil producers.

Worse yet, for the U.S. at the time of its foreign oil import dependence, the transfer of funds was often to less-than-friendly Middle Eastern oil producers, including Saudi Arabia who in the 1970s and 80s could arguably have been called a quasi-friend or at least an ally of convenience. The U.S. needed Saudi oil as American oil production continued to decline while U.S. oil consumption spiked to unprecedented levels. For their part, the Saudis needed, and still do, the U.S. Navy’s 5th to keep open vital shipping lanes including the world’s most important maritime chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz, to allow the export of massive cargoes of crude to foreign markets.

China’s insatiable oil thirst

China surpassed the U.S. in annual gross crude oil imports in 2017 by importing 8.4 million barrels per day bpd compared with 7.9 million bpd of U.S. crude oil imports. China had become the world’s largest net importer (imports less exports) of total petroleum and other liquid fuels in 2013. New refinery capacity and strategic inventory stockpiling, combined with declining domestic production, were the major factors contributing to its recent increase in imports.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

China’s Oil Futures Are Gaining Momentum

China’s Oil Futures Are Gaining Momentum

Yuan

China’s new oil futures contract is gaining some momentum as a fixture on the global oil market, although hurdles remain before it can become a key benchmark for Asia.

China launched its yuan-denominated oil benchmark in March to much fanfare, after years of planning and delays. The logic of starting up an oil futures contract in China is obvious. China is the largest crude oil importer in the world, and its growing appetite for crude has increased the urgency to establish a contract based on local supply and demand conditions. Importing such heavy volumes at dollar-denominated prices exposes Chinese refiners and consumers to currency risk. A yuan contract mitigates some of that risk.

Beyond those concerns, the yuan contract also augments the global status of the Chinese currency. China is the world’s second largest economy and shifting more global trade into yuan advances Chinese influence.

However, the new contract on the Shanghai International Exchange still has to overcome some hurdles before it can be taken seriously as a premier benchmark in the global oil market. Just because the contract was launched does not mean it will become dominant, or even relevant. Previous contracts have failed to garner sufficient liquidity and ultimately have been discontinued or have wallowed in irrelevance.

The Dubai Mercantile Exchange’s Oman futures contract has been somewhat reflective of conditions in the Asian market, incorporating medium and heavy sour blends. But “its daily traded volume and open interest (number of contracts outstanding) have remained at low levels since its inception in 2007, indicating it is not actively used among market participants,” the EIA wrote last week.

As Reuters noted in early April, there are several ingredients for success. First, the contract must serve a need for hedging. Second, it has to attract enough traders in order to build liquidity. Finally, restrictions on trading, speculation, and capital controls must not be too onerous.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

UBS: “The Petroyuan Will Undermine America’s Dominant Role And Create A Sea Change In Global Markets”

From Hayden Briscoe, head of Fixed Income, Asia Pacific at UBS

RMB-denominated oil contracts began trading for the first time in Shanghai on March 26. We believe that in the long term this will ultimately change how oil is traded globally, create a Petroyuan currency flow, increase the role of the RMB as a global trading currency, and compel investors to up their allocations to Chinese financial assets.

Why now?

From March 26, seven oil grades will be tradeable on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE), allowing Chinese buyers to buy forward in RMB. Since INE is based in Shanghai’s Free Trade Zone (FTZ), foreign traders will be allowed to trade in the market.

China passed the US as the world’s largest oil consumer in 2016. Accordingly, China wants to pay for its huge import bill in its own currency (RMB) rather than USD.

More importantly, however, China wants the new oil trading plan to promote RMB internationalization, i.e. forcing wider adoption of the RMB as a global trading currency, and switching to RMB payments for major imports is part of this process.

The emergence of Petroyuan – RMB-denominated revenues collected by the world’s largest oil producers – is a natural development from this process

Will this new system change the way oil is traded globally?

Probably not in the short term. Traders can’t move RMB freely in and out of the Shanghai commodity exchanges yet. That said, it’s unclear how much of a roadblock this is given that INE will be based in the Shanghai FTZ.

Also, even with exchange convertibility, international investors and resource trading companies need to build up enough confidence in the INE as a trading hub. That requires time and, crucially, the tried, tested, and extensive  data infrastructure to support the market, which China doesn’t have right now.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

3 Recent Events That Could Send the US Hurtling Toward World War III

3 Recent Events That Could Send the US Hurtling Toward World War III

Recently, the news has been all abuzz with teen activists who want to take away our guns but refuse to use clear backpacks, the Facebook privacy scandal, and how someone bit Beyonce in the face. But there are three recent events that aren’t getting much press which tell us it is entirely possible that we could be headed toward World War III at worst and toward an economic collapse at best.

During the election, it really seemed as though Hillary Clinton as president would be a much more likely path to World War III. She even gloated of the actions she planned to take that would have led directly and immediately to war. Donald Trump as president seemed less likely to get us into a war with Russia, but it appears the tides may have turned back in that direction.

#1) The Trade Tariffs

We’re already at financial war with China due to punitive trade tariffs that our governments are instituting on one another. President Trump wants to rebalance global trade in America’s favor, and China isn’t going to go down without a fight. Here’s more information on the list of tariffs the US wants to charge for Chinese merchandise and the retaliatory list from China.

The last time we were involved in a major trade war, the Great Depression happened, according to an economics expert for CNN.

America’s last trade war exacerbated the Great Depression in the 1930s, when unemployment rose to 25%. Claiming it was protecting American jobs, Congress passed the Smoot-Hawley Act in 1930. The original bill was meant to protect farmers. But to build political support, many lawmakers asked for tariffs — or taxes — on all sorts of goods in exchange for their vote.
Several nations, such as Canada, slapped steep tariffs — or taxes — on US goods shipped and sold abroad. For example, US exports of eggs to Canada fell to 7,900 in 1932 from 919,000 in 1929, according to Doug Irwin, a Dartmouth professor and former trade adviser to President Reagan.
The result: US imports fell 40% in the two years after Smoot-Hawley. Banks shuttered. Unemployment shot up. Surely, there were a litany of factors at play. But economists widely agree Smoot-Hawley made the Great Depression much worse than otherwise. (source)
And what happened at the end of the Great Depression? World War II happened, and this ended the unemployment and resulted in a spending frenzy that pumped up the economy. There’s always an increase in the GDP during wartime due to defense spending. But that is one hell of a bad way to fix the economy, don’t you think?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

PetroYuan Futures Open – Over 10 BillIon Notional Trades In First Hour

After all the preparation, all the expectation, cheerleading and doomsaying, China’s Yuan-denominated crude oil futures contract began trading tonight and appears to be off a good start with well over 10 billion yuan notional traded within the first hour.

So far it has tracked WTI futures well, trading at around a $2 premium to WTI (when translated from yuan to USD)…

Additionally, well over 23,000 contracts have traded within the first hour for a notional trading volume of over 10 billion yuan – more than $1.5 billion notional… signaling significant demand.

Offshore Yuan is moving in sync with ‘Petroyuan’ futures – as WTI tends to track the USD.

As we most recently noted, after numerous “false starts” over the last decade,  the “petroyuan” is now real and China will set out to challenge the “petrodollar” for dominance. Adam Levinson, managing partner and chief investment officer at hedge fund manager Graticule Asset Management Asia (GAMA), already warned last year that China launching a yuan-denominated oil futures contract will shock those investors who have not been paying attention.

This could be a death blow for an already weakening U.S. dollar, and the rise of the yuan as the dominant world currency.

But this isn’t just some slow, news day “fad” that will fizzle in a few days.

A Warning for Investors Since 2015

Back in 2015, the first of a number of strikes against the petrodollar was dealt by China. Gazprom Neft, the third-largest oil producer in Russia, decided to move away from the dollar and towards the yuan and other Asian currencies.

Iran followed suit the same year, using the yuan with a host of other foreign currencies in trade, including Iranian oil.

During the same year China also developed its Silk Road, while the yuan was beginning to establish more dominance in the European markets.

But the U.S. petrodollar still had a fighting chance in 2015 because China’s oil imports were all over the place. Back then, Nick Cunningham of OilPrice.com wrote

Despite accounting for much of the world’s growth in demand in the 21st Century, China’s oil imports have been all over the map in recent months. In April, China imported 7.4 million barrels per day, a record high and enough to make it the world’s largest oil importer. But a month later, imports plummeted to just 5.5 million barrels per day.

That problem has since gone away, signaling China’s rise to oil dominance…

The Slippery Slope to the Petroyuan Begins Here

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

China is One Signature Away From Dealing the Dollar a Death Blow

China to deal final blow to dollar

If you leave your sliding glass door open, you might let in a stray cat, raccoon, or bugs without knowing it.

Some intruders are worse than others. All can be annoying. But let in a thief, who robs your home… and it only takes that one time to change your life forever.

The U.S. has essentially left their “sliding glass door” open, and on March 26 China is set to become the intruder that may very well deal a death blow to the dollar.

China Prepares Death Blow to the Dollar

On March 26 China will finally launch a yuan-dominated oil futures contract. Over the last decade there have been a number of “false-starts,” but this time the contract has gotten approval from China’s State Council.

With that approval, the “petroyuan” will become real and China will set out to challenge the “petrodollar” for dominance. Adam Levinson, managing partner and chief investment officer at hedge fund manager Graticule Asset Management Asia (GAMA), already warned last year that China launching a yuan-denominated oil futures contract will shock those investors who have not been paying attention.

This could be a death blow for an already weakening U.S. dollar, and the rise of the yuan as the dominant world currency.

But this isn’t just some slow, news day “fad” that will fizzle in a few days.

A Warning for Investors Since 2015

Back in 2015, the first of a number of strikes against the petrodollar was dealt by China. Gazprom Neft, the third-largest oil producer in Russia, decided to move away from the dollar and towards the yuan and other Asian currencies.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

The World’s New Reserve Currency? Everything You Need To Know About PetroYuan

The World’s New Reserve Currency? Everything You Need To Know About PetroYuan

Earlier this week, we pointed out that the ‘PetroYuan’ is on the verge of becoming reality with Graticule’s Adam Levinson noting that the birth of a yuan-denominated oil contract will be a “huge story” in the fourth quarter, and will be a “wake up call” for investors who haven’t paid attention to the plans.

As a reminder, nothing lasts forever…

Judging by the interest in the topic, investors are less informed than many believed and so the different teams within Société Générale Cross Asset Research examine what this contract would mean for the global oil markets and for the internationalisation of the yuan – if it gets off the ground.

Part 1 The proposed yuan-denominated crude oil futures contract

  • Why is a yuan-denominated Chinese crude futures contract interesting to think about?  Why is it potentially significant?
  • Would yuan-denominated Chinese crude futures affect the physical markets?
  • Has China actually proposed changing its crude buying from USD to yuan?
  • What about the crude producers and exporters?
  • How much non-USD crude trade currently exists?
  • If small volumes don’t change how the oil market operates, how big would the volumes have to be to make a difference?
  • Is there another commodity that trades in multiple currencies at different exchanges that we can learn lessons from?

Part 2 Another step towards currency internationalisation?

  • Why does China want to introduce a yuan-denominated crude oil futures contract?
  • How can the yuan succeed in becoming a reserve currency?
  • What does the status of an international currency mean for the yuan?
  • What will an internationalised yuan mean to China’s FX reserves?

*  *  *

Part 1: The proposed yuan-denominated crude oil futures contract

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

We begin with the oil markets.

China’s rise, America’s fall

China’s rise, America’s fall

Will the rise of China mean the fall of America?  In a word, yes. Although decline might be more accurate.

Why do I think this?  Because China is about to launch the PetroYuan and when it does the demand for dollars and for dollar denominated debt will shrink. When it does, I question whether the world will be so sanguine about the level of debt that America carries. If that happens then the value of the dollar is in question.

At the moment no matter what level of debt America carries, other countries need dollars. Dollars to pay for oil, since oil is traded in dollars.  Dollars for their financial system so their banks can settle contracts for goods and services traded in dollars.

But over the last few years China has been systematically putting in place everything it needs to launch the Yuan as not only a rival to the dollar in trading and settling oil contracts but as a rival to the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.  At the moment the only rival to the dollar is the Euro. I think it fair to say the relationship between the two currencies and their issuing powers, has been… ‘delicate’.  The news that Sadam Hussein was going to start trading his oil in Euros came just a few months before America and its lap dog GB, decided Sadam was a threat to world peace and went to war with him.  Something similar happened to Colonel Qaddafi.

Under Qaddafi Libya’s currency was backed by the country’s large holdings of gold and silver. This had allowed Qaddafi to finance, for example, the entire construction of the Great Man Made River without going to Western banks for a single loan. Libya was debt free and owned its own resources and infrastructure.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Gold-Backed Petro-Yuan Silliness: Reserve Currency Curse? 

A massive amount of hype is spreading regarding China’s alleged ambitions to dethrone the dollar. The story this time involves China’s plan is to price oil in yuan using a gold-backed futures contract. Even if that were true, the impact would be zero. Nonetheless, CNBC is now in on the hype.

Yuan pricing and clearing of crude oil futures is the “beginning” of a broader strategic push “to support yuan pricing and clearing in commodities futures trading,” Pan Gongsheng, director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said last month.

To support the new benchmark, China has opened more than 6,000 trading accounts for the crude futures contract, Reuters reported in July.

Yawn.

Jeff Brown, president at FGE, an international energy consultant has a more accurate assessment. “Most counterparties will not want anything to do with this contract as it adds in a layer of cost and risk. They also don’t like contracts with only a few dominant buyers or sellers and a government role.”

Priced-In Madness

Repeat after me: It’s meaningless what currency oil is quoted in. Once you understand the inherent truth in that statement, you immediately laugh at headlines like that presented on CNBC.

For those who do not understand the simple logic, consider the fact that one does not need to have dollars to buy oil. Currencies are fungible. In less than a second, and at ant time day or night, one can convert any currency to any other currency.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“It’s A Huge Story”: China Launching “Petroyuan” In Two Months

“It’s A Huge Story”: China Launching “Petroyuan” In Two Months 

As a reminder, nothing lasts forever…

The World Bank’s former chief economist wants to replace the US dollar with a single global super-currency, saying it will create a more stable global financial system.

“The dominance of the greenback is the root cause of global financial and economic crises,” Justin Yifu Lin told Bruegel, a Brussels-based policy-research think tank.

“The solution to this is to replace the national currency with a global currency.”

The writing is on the wall for dollar hegemony. As Russian President Vladimir Putin said almost two months ago during the BRICs summit in Xiamen,

“Russia shares the BRICS countries’ concerns over the unfairness of the global financial and economic architecture, which does not give due regard to the growing weight of the emerging economies. We are ready to work together with our partners to promote international financial regulation reforms and to overcome the excessive domination of the limited number of reserve currencies.”

As Pepe Escobar recently noted, ‘to overcome the excessive domination of the limited number of reserve currencies’ is the politest way of stating what the BRICS have been discussing for years now; how to bypass the US dollar, as well as the petrodollar.

Beijing is ready to step up the game. Soon China will launch a crude oil futures contract priced in yuan and convertible into gold.

This means that Russia – as well as Iran, the other key node of Eurasia integration – may bypass US sanctions by trading energy in their own currencies, or in yuan.

Inbuilt in the move is a true Chinese win-win; the yuan will be fully convertible into gold on both the Shanghai and Hong Kong exchanges.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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