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Extreme Weather Causes Production Outages In Libya

Extreme Weather Causes Production Outages In Libya

Rig

A Libyan oil company has had to significantly reduce oil production at its fields because the hot weather has caused several turbines to stop working. The company is Agoco, a unit of the national Oil Corporation, and the decline in production amounted to some 120,000 bpd, sources wishing to remain unnamed told Bloomberg.

This is only the latest production outage in the troubled North African country that has made exemplary efforts to revive its oil production after the NOC regained control over the export terminals and the fields, and settled its disputes with the Petroleum Facilities Guard. It is also the least significant one, as according to the sources, production in Agoco’s fields will return to normal in a few days.

The outage does, however, highlight the uncertainty of Libyan supply, which has been hovering around 1 million barrels daily for over a year, but has failed to move above this level—and not because Libyan is an OPEC member and as such is constrained by a production quota. It is because the political situation in the country is still so unstable that virtually any group with a grudge against the government—or another group—can block a pipeline or attack any piece of infrastructure and cause a production outage.

A few days ago, for example, protesters blocked the entrance to the Ragouba field, which produces around 5,000 bpd, so tanker trucks could not load crude. These particular protesters demanded social and health care benefits and lifted the blockade when the operator of the field promised to grant these.

Last month, a militant group attacked the pipeline feeding crude from the Waha oil field to the Es Sider export terminal, costing the field operators around 80,000 bpd in lost production. This was the second attack on this pipeline in five months. Waha produces 300,000 bpd, on par with Libya’s largest field, El Sharara, which has also been the target of several attacks.

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Who’s To Blame For High Gasoline Prices?

Who’s To Blame For High Gasoline Prices?

Fuel Pump

As retail gasoline prices rise to $3 per gallon across the United States, gas prices are a hot political topic in Washington once again, with the Democrats hoping to slam Donald Trump for causing pain at the pump and Republicans trying to shift blame back on their opponents.

High gasoline prices have long presented dangers for politicians, particularly for those in power when prices rise. The debates often make for great political theater, although they typically fall far short on the substance.

The spike in crude oil prices in 2008, during the heat of the presidential election, popularized the “drill, baby, drill” slogan and also led to calls from both Senators John McCain and Hillary Clinton for a “gas tax holiday” – a temporary suspension in federal gas taxes.

During the Arab Spring in 2011, and the outage of oil supply in Libya, prices spiked again. Republicans blamed former President Obama for high prices, charging that his refusal to allow more drilling caused prices to rise. His release of oil from the strategic petroleum reserve also came under criticism. Years later, when prices crashed because of the oil market downturn, Obama took credit for low gasoline prices.

We haven’t heard much about gas prices since 2014, but with WTI over $70 and gasoline back to $3 per gallon, suddenly it is a hot topic again.

The Democrats held a press conference on Wednesday in front of an ExxonMobil gas station in Washington to blast the Trump administration for high gasoline prices. “It’s time for this president to stand up to OPEC,” Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer said. That was accompanied by a letter by several top Democratic Senators asking Trump to “pressure” OPEC to “increase world oil supplies in order to lower prices at the pump during the upcoming summer driving season.” They noted that the run up in gas prices could cancel out the benefits of the tax cuts from last year.

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Permian Growth Is Reaching Its Limits

Permian Growth Is Reaching Its Limits

Oil rig

The Permian isn’t just suffering from a bottleneck for oil, but also for natural gas.

In 2016, for instance, gas flows leaving the Permian typically clocked in at about 3.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), according to S&P Global Platts. That number has ballooned to 6.3 Bcf/d as of May 2018.

Obviously, the surge in gas flows from the Permian is the result of a massive increase in gas production. Gas output has surged more than 135 percent since 2013 and is expected to rise to just shy of 10.5 Bcf/d (including natural gas liquids) in June 2018. The problem is that the region’s ceiling on takeaway capacity stands at about 7.3 Bcf/d.

Skyrocketing natural gas production has unsurprisingly weighed on regional prices. According to S&P Global Platts, natural gas prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas traded at an 8-cent per MMBtu discount to Henry Hub two years ago, but that discount widened to about $1/MMBtu this month.

With so much gas on their hands, Permian drillers have resorted to higher rates of flaring. The Environmental Defense Fund estimates that top Permian producers are flaring as much as 10 percent of their gas. “This flaring is so extreme, it can be seen from space,” EDF says. “In 2015 alone, enough Texas Permian natural gas was flared to serve all of the Texas household needs in the Permian counties for two and a half years.”

S&P Global Platts reported that gas flows to Mexico have increased over the past few weeks, relieving some pressure. But infrastructure within Mexico hasn’t been able to keep up with the supply of gas north of the border, so some of the pipelines are under-utilized. In any event, the gas volumes moving to Mexico will be swamped by new supply coming online in the Permian. At some point, the glut of gas could force curtailments in drilling.

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Farmers Reeling From High Oil Prices

Farmers Reeling From High Oil Prices

Tractor

As the summer driving season approaches, drivers are already paying more for gasoline due to the oil price rally in recent months.

But higher oil prices affect not only the gasoline bills of retail consumers. The higher price of oil is also pushing up diesel fuel prices as the harvesting and planting seasons for various crops are already in full swing.

Farmers in the United States and around the world see their diesel fuel expenses jumping and eating into their profits that have been already constrained by depressed prices of some crops.

Ultra-low sulfur diesel is used for farming equipment and for transportation of crops, and the May price of that diesel is the highest it’s been since 2014, just before the collapse of crude oil prices.

“You just kind of all of a sudden realize, ‘Wow, it’s pretty high,’” farmer Glenn Brunkow from Wamego, Kansas, tells Reuters.

For next year, Brunkow is considering locking in diesel prices for the first time ever to save on future rises in diesel fuel prices.

This year, farmers are struggling with higher fuel costs as a result of the advance in crude oil prices in recent months.

In the U.S., where America’s farms output contributed US$136.7 billion—or about 1 percent of GDP—to the economy in 2016, total production expenses this year are expected to be flat on 2017, but spending on fuel and oils is expected to jump 10.2 percent, forecasts by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) show.

Spending on fuels and oils, which accounts for nearly 5 percent of cash expenses, is expected to increase by 10.2 percent, or by US$1.4 billion, on top of a 13.9-percent, or US$1.7 billion, increase for 2017.

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Washington Threatens Sanctions For Nord Stream 2

Washington Threatens Sanctions For Nord Stream 2

Natural Gas

While Germany tries to make sure Ukraine will not suffer too badly from the addition of Nord Stream 2 to the European natural gas pipeline network, a senior State Department official has threatened sanctions for the controversial project.

Speaking to media in Berlin, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Energy Diplomacy Sandra Oudkirk said Washington deemed the pipe as a security threat because it would give Russia the chance to install “undersea surveillance equipment” such as “listening devices” in the Baltic. Oudkirk did not go into detail about the surveillance equipment that she suspected Russia might put on the seabed.

What she did make a point of noting was that the threat of sanctions was motivated by Washington’s strong desire to curb Russia’s influence in Europe and had nothing to do with the fact that U.S. LNG is one alternative to Russian gas. Oudkirk also said Washington did not believe there was a way to enforce guarantees for Ukraine’s transit fee revenues from current Russian pipeline exports to Russia.

These revenues have turned into a sticking point between Russia and Germany, with the latter showing genuine concern for Ukraine’s revenues, although it was clear from the beginning that an expanded Nord Stream would mean diverting part of current gas transit from Ukraine.

Europe has been very active in showing its support for gas transit revenue dependent Ukraine, although little of this support has been constructive, such as finding ways to generate other revenues besides those from transit fees. Besides, concern for Ukraine may be genuine, but it is not the single concern of all European countries when it comes to Nord Stream 2.

For Germany, Nord Stream 2 means more gas amid nuclear and coal power plant phasing out.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Double-Edged Sword Of High Oil Prices

The Double-Edged Sword Of High Oil Prices

barrel

Rising oil prices were seen last year as a positive result of growing global growth and recovery, but a combination of factors is turning this benign view into a more sinister scenario.

On the supply side, the combined efforts of OPEC and Russia, leaky as the agreement has been, have managed to reduce the global oil surplus in just 18 months to bring the market largely into balance. As a result, oil prices have gradually risen during the period. It’s a trend most observers have been sanguine about, believing the U.S.’s tight oil producers, encouraged by rising prices, will increase output to ensure ample supply and keep a lid on oil prices getting ahead of themselves.

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But that benign view had not taken account of President Trump’s decision to rip up the Iran nuclear deal and, as a result, to reinstate sanctions, a move that will take place in two phases to give firms time to adjust.

According to The Telegraph, this will be done in two stages, on Aug. 6 and Nov. 4, allowing 90- and 180-day wind-down periods. In addition, the Treasury is to re-list Iranian individuals and entities in the Specially Designated Nationals (SDN) list, thus revoking special licenses and exceptions previously granted to individuals and companies to deal with Iran, making it all but impossible for firms with a U.S. presence or needing dollar clearing to deal with them.

Lastly, Iran’s crude oil sales will be limited under the National Defense Authorization Act of 2012, as the U.S. departments of State, Energy and Treasury will allow ongoing but reduced purchases of oil from Iran, termed “significant reduction exceptions” on a country-by-country basis if they demonstrate a commitment to substantially decrease oil purchases (usually at least a 20 percent reduction).

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The Myth Of An Imminent Energy Transition

The Myth Of An Imminent Energy Transition

Cushing oil storage

100 million. It’s a number that drowns comprehension; it’s more jelly beans than can fit in an average-sized swimming pool.

Within a year, world oil consumption will top 100 million barrels of oil per day. Over the same time period, close to 100 million new piston-firing vehicles will be bought by petroleum-thirsty customers.

I hate to say it, but any notion of imminent “energy transition” or “decarbonization” is folly.

In fact, the percentage of fossil fuels in the world’s energy mix—coal, oil and natural gas—is still lingering well above 80 percent, a figure that has changed little in 30 years. That remains so, despite being challenged by serious environmental policies, financial pressures, viable alternative systems, public awareness and social activism.

It’s true that wind and solar are being deployed quickly, at an exponential rate in fact. But impressive as it all is, renewable energy installations are far too slow to catch the still-hardy appetite for fossil fuel consumption. Such energy obesity is not virtuous, but it’s a fact needing acknowledgement in a world of over seven billion people, each of whom are wanting for more light, heat, mobility and a panoply of mostly useless gadgetry.

Oil and gas are growing especially fast. Recently published data reminds us that we’re consuming hydrocarbons faster than ever, at robust rates on a global absolute basis (see Figure 1). Market share for oil and gas is holding steady at just under 60 percent. Related: Is Russia About To Abandon The OPEC Deal?

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The resilience of fossil fuels is sobering, even after massive capital assault.

Over the past decade, the world has spent US$ 3.0 trillion on renewable energy, according to the International Energy Agency (Figure 2). For that expenditure, the clean cadre has taken a couple of points of share away from coal, the black stuff that seems to have nine lives (Figure 3).

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Iran Sanctions Threaten The Petrodollar

Iran Sanctions Threaten The Petrodollar

Iranian oil

One country must be quite pleased with the prospect of new U.S. economic sanctions against Iran’s oil industry, and this country is the largest oil importer in the world, and is Iran’s largest single oil client.

When China launched its long-awaited yuan-priced oil futures last month, it did so as part of its strategy to expand the international clout of its currency. Now, with U.S. sanctions on Iran’s horizon, the yuan could further advance down this road, as Beijing has vowed to continue buying Iranian crude, which will most likely be paid in yuan.

Iran should be on board with the idea. The country has made it clear even before President Trump’s withdrawal from the JCPOA that it would prefer to settle its trade in currencies other than the greenback, to which it has limited access.

Last month, Tehran and Moscow inked a deal to conduct all its business in goods rather than in dollars as both seek to reduce the influence of the U.S. currency on their economies. A month earlier, Iran banned settlement of import deals in dollars and ditched the currency in favor of the euro in reporting its forex reserves. In other words, Iran will be more than happy to take in Chinese yuan for its crude, or alternatively, to apply some oil-for-goods exchange scheme similar to the one agreed with Russia.

The point is that those one million barrels daily that new Iran sanctions are supposed to take off the market may not in fact be taken off the market. Analysts are citing this figure because that’s how much Iranian crude left global markets during the period when both the U.S. and the EU had sanctions in place against Tehran.

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Erdogan: Cyprus Oil Drilling Is A Security Threat To East Mediterranean

Erdogan: Cyprus Oil Drilling Is A Security Threat To East Mediterranean

Erdogan

The Eastern Mediterranean will face a security threat should Cyprus continue its unilateral operations of offshore oil and gas exploration in the region, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdo?an said in a speech at think tank Chatham House in London on Monday.

Turkey, which recognizes the northern Turkish Cypriot government and doesn’t have diplomatic relations with the internationally recognized government of Cyprus, claims that part of the Cyprus offshore area is under the jurisdiction of Turkish Cypriots or Turkey.

Tensions in the area flared up earlier this year, after Turkish Navy vessels threatened in February to sink a drilling ship that oil major Eni had hired to explore for oil and gas offshore Cyprus—the divided island whose northern part is run by Turkish Cypriots and is recognized only by Turkey.

Weeks before that, Turkey’s Navy had blocked the drilling vessel that Eni had hired. Eni’s chief executive Claudio Descalzi had said that the row is a diplomatic one and out of the company’s control. Descalzi said that Eni would probably move the blocked drilling ship, but would not pull out of its project in Cyprus.

While the internationally recognized Republic of Cyprus said that its “goal is to fully explore Cyprus’s hydrocarbon potential,” Turkey claims that the drilling operations are ‘unilateral’ and claims that part of the exclusive economic zone of Cyprus is under Turkish jurisdiction.

Meanwhile, just last week, Turkish Energy and Natural Resources Minister Berat Albayrak said that Turkey would begin its first solo oil and gas deepwater drilling in the Mediterranean before the end of this summer.

Turkey has strongly opposed what it describes as “unilateral” drilling offshore the internationally recognized Republic of Cyprus, and Turkish Cypriots argue that the offshore oil and gas resources of the island should be exploited jointly to ensure equal rights for both parties.

OPEC: The Oil Glut Is Gone

OPEC: The Oil Glut Is Gone

Oil storage

OPEC said that the global oil supply surplus has nearly been eliminated, although the group is shifting its sights on lack of investment in upstream supply.

In OPEC’s May Oil Market Report, the group noted that non-OPEC supply continues to grow at a rapid rate, adding 0.87 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2017, with expectations of another 1.7 mb/d in 2018, 89 percent of which will come from the U.S. In fact, non-OPEC supply is expected to outpace demand growth, even though demand will expand by a robust 1.65 mb/d this year.

But OPEC also warned that “non-OPEC capital expenditure (CAPEX), including exploration, increased by only 2% y-o-y. Moreover, it has seen a decline of around 42% compared to the 2014 level.” While that seems like a bit of a throw-away line given the enormous production increases from U.S. shale, the focus on upstream investment has been a growing point of emphasis for OPEC as it grapples with how to respond to a tightening oil market.

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Commercial stocks were only 9 million barrels above the five-year average in March, which is to say, stocks are probably already below the five-year average at this point. That means that OPEC has achieved its goal of shrinking the supply surplus.

That would suggest that the group begins to unwind the production cuts at its upcoming meeting in June, but there has been a reluctance to do so. Saudi Arabia is aiming for higher oil prices ahead of the IPO of Saudi Aramco, expected at some point in 2019. Related: Iran Sanctions Threaten The Petrodollar

Keeping the cuts in place for the remainder of 2018 (OPEC’s initial preference) would seem to require another justification now that inventories are back to the five-year average. Raising alarms about lack of upstream investment could offer such a pretext.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Skeptic Geologist Warns: Permian’s Best Years Are Behind Us

Skeptic Geologist Warns: Permian’s Best Years Are Behind Us

Permian

Geologist Arthur Berman, who has been skeptical about the shale boom, warned on Thursday that the Permian’s best years are gone and that the most productive U.S. shale play has just seven years of proven oil reserves left.

“The best years are behind us,” Bloomberg quoted Berman as saying at the Texas Energy Council’s annual gathering in Dallas.

The Eagle Ford is not looking good, either, according to Berman, who is now working as an industry consultant, and whose pessimistic outlook is based on analyses of data about reserves and production from more than a dozen prominent U.S. shale companies.

“The growth is done,” he said at the gathering.

Those who think that the U.S. shale production could add significant crude oil supply to the global market are in for a disappointment, according to Berman.

“The reserves are respectable but they ain’t great and ain’t going to save the world,” Bloomberg quoted Berman as saying.

Yet, Berman has not sold the EOG Resources stock that he has inherited from his father “because they’re a pretty good company.”

The short-term drilling productivity outlook by the EIA estimates that the Permian’s oil production hit 3.110 million bpd in April, and will rise by 73,000 bpd to 3.183 million bpd in May.

Earlier this week, the EIA raised its forecast for total U.S. production this year and next. In the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the EIA said that it expects U.S. crude oil production to average 10.7 million bpd in 2018, up from 9.4 million bpd in 2017, and to average 11.9 million bpd in 2019, which is 400,000 bpd higher than forecast in the April STEO. In the current outlook, the EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production will end 2019 at more than 12 million bpd.

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Higher Oil Prices Look Likely

Higher Oil Prices Look Likely

Oil field

The path to higher oil prices seems pretty clear, but it isn’t inevitable.

There are plenty of reasons why the oil market is suddenly on edge, and why oil prices are at their highest level since 2014. Venezuela’s oil production is falling off of a cliff, and could fall faster now that creditors are swarming over the country. The upcoming presidential election risks a financial crackdown from the U.S. Treasury, threatening to add to the country’s woes.

The more obvious catalyst over the past week was the U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, putting a sizable chunk of Iranian supply at risk, although exactly how much remains to be seen.

Most importantly, the underlying fundamentals are bullish: the supply/demand balance is tighter than at any moment in recent memory, with demand expected to outpace supply for the rest of the year. Global inventories are back down to the five-year average, and falling. Because data is published on a lag, the market could overtighten before OPEC realizes it.

U.S. shale is the one factor keeping prices in check, having added more than 1 million barrels per day (mb/d) since last September. The EIA sees output growing to 11.9 mb/d in 2019 (ending the year at over 12 mb/d), up from 10.5 mb/d a month ago. In other words, the agency is baking in an additional 1.5 mb/d of extra supply over the next year and a half.

That should keep a lid on prices.

But what if all that fresh supply doesn’t actually make it online? U.S. shale production is exploding, but is also running up against serious pipeline constraints that are pushing down prices in West Texas and threaten to severely slow development. While WTI in Cushing is above $70 per barrel, oil in Midland is selling in the high-$50s per barrel.

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Could Oil Hit $100?

Could Oil Hit $100?

$100

Oil prices have continued their climb following a week of bullish news, and with geopolitical tensions reaching a boiling point, prices are poised to head even higher.

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Friday, May 11, 2018

Iran continues to dominate the headlines, keeping WTI above $71 per barrel and Brent at $77 per barrel as of early trading on Friday. The exchange of airstrikes between Iran and Israel is also adding to the tension. Meanwhile, aside from the huge increase in U.S. oil production, the EIA reported some bullish figures this week – a decline in both crude oil and gasoline inventories by more than expected.

OPEC sees Iranian outage as not immediate. Any loss of supply from Iran due to U.S. sanctions will take time, and OPEC won’t rush to increase output in the interim, sources told Reuters. The steep losses from Venezuela combined with the potential disruption in Iran could force OPEC to adjust production levels earlier than it had expected. But because U.S. sanctions don’t really take effect until November, OPEC is not scrambling just yet. “I think we have 180 days before any supply impact,” an OPEC source said. They will meet in Vienna in a month to evaluate the current status of the oil market and the production limits.

Short-term supply glut eases Iran fears. Although supply outages from Iran could severely tighten the oil market, Bloomberg reports that there is currently a bit of a supply glut, which should prevent a sudden price spike. Oil traders have reported unsold cargoes in north-west Europe, the Mediterranean, China and West Africa. The sudden emergence of a temporary glut is reflected in the Brent timespreads, with the July-August spread falling from 63 cents per barrel last month to just 24 cents per barrel this week, a five-month low. The narrowing of the spread is a “sure sign of an oversupplied market,” Bloomberg reports.

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How Much Iranian Oil Can Trump Disrupt?

How Much Iranian Oil Can Trump Disrupt?

Trump

Oil prices surged following President Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal. So, what happens next?

Trump did not offer any new justification for how Iran was violating the nuclear accord – the IAEA confirmed on May 9 that Iran is in compliance with its nuclear commitments – and offered no Plan B or even a coherent strategy on what comes next. For now, Washington is pursuing confrontation with Iran, and hoping that “maximum pressure” will force Iran to not only abandon any hint of a nuclear weapons program, but also agree to concessions on a range of non-nuclear issues. If history is any guide, there is little chance of this happening, so we are now on a course of escalating confrontation.

The U.S. will re-impose all nuclear related sanctions on Iran, which could begin to disrupt oil flows from the country. There will be a 90-day and 180-day wind down period before sanctions really start to bite, which puts the deadline at early November. However, there is a great deal of disagreement and uncertainty over how quickly and how severely the impact of U.S. confrontation will be.

The U.S. will not have the coalition that shut in 1 million barrels per day (mb/d) of Iranian oil exports prior to the 2015 agreement. The EU, China and Russia have said they are sticking with the deal. Still, U.S. sanctions will loom over private companies from those nations, which could keep them from doing business with Iran. The EU has vowed to protect its companies, and could even pursue trade retaliation if the U.S. Treasury moves to penalize European companies. However, U.S. sanctions will almost certainly deter large-scale investment in Iran’s oil and gas sector for years to come.

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Oil Market Volatility Set To Soar This Month

Oil Market Volatility Set To Soar This Month

Oil Industry

After two months of an almost uninterrupted increase, crude oil is set for even more volatility on a string of political events that could see it either touch US$80 or even higher by the end of June or, conversely, slump to deep lows again.

President Donald Trump will start unwinding the string today as he announced his decision on the Iran deal. The prevailing analyst opinion is that economic sanctions will be reinstated within the next couple of months.

While this would be naturally bullish for oil prices, some analysts note that the effect of the sanctions has already been factored into prices, so any immediate impact will be limited. What’s more, CNBC reported recently, that the effect of U.S. sanctions against Iran on the country’s international shipments of crude will also be limited: China and India are unlikely to reduce their intake of Iranian crude as are other buyers, who were previously on the U.S.’ side with regard to the sanctions.

All in all, analysts estimate that new sanctions could remove between 300,000 bpd and 500,000 bpd of Iranian crude from international markets, which compares with 1-1.5 million bpd removed from the market under the initial round of U.S. sanctions under President Obama, who had a lot more support from Western Europe.

That said, there will unquestionably be an effect on prices from Trump’s announcement. This effect could be amplified later in May, when Venezuela holds its presidential elections. The vote scheduled for May 20, and there is little doubt that Washington will question the legality of the outcome.

Venezuela’s oil industry—like its economy—is in shambles, with production down by 50 percent since its peak in the early 2000s to 1.55 million bpd, data from Bloomberg suggests.

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Olduvai II: Exodus
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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Olduvai III: Cataclysm
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