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Opinion: Powell has lost his North Star, and the Fed is flying blind

The Fed risks raising interest rates too much as the compass spins wildly

STAN HONDA/AFP/Getty Images
Stars appear to rotate around Polaris, the North Star, in this time exposure of the Kitt Peak National Observatory near Tucson, Ariz.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is in an unenviable position. Folks expect him to fine-tune interest rates to keep the economy going and inflation tame but he can’t make things much better — only worse.

Growth is nearly 3% and unemployment is at its lowest level since 1969. What inflation we have above the Fed target of 2% is driven largely by oil prices and those by forces beyond the influence of U.S. economic conditions — OPEC politics, U.S. sanctions on Iran, and dystopian political forces in Venezuela and a few other garden spots.

When the current turbulence in oil markets recedes, we are likely in for a period of headline inflation below 2%, just as those forces are now driving prices higher now.

Overall, long-term inflation has settled in at the Fed target of about 2%. The Fed should not obsess about it but keep a watchful eye.

Amid all this, Powell’s inflation compass has gone missing. The Phillips curve, as he puts it, may not be dead but just resting. To my thinking, it’s in a coma if it was ever alive at all.

That contraption is a shorthand equation sitting atop a pyramid of more fundamental behavioral relationships. Those include the supply and demand for domestic workers and in turn, an historically large contingent labor force of healthy prime-age adults sitting on the sidelines, the shifting skill requirements of a workplace transformed by artificial intelligence and robotics, import prices influenced by weak growth in Europe and China, and immigration.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Saudi Blowback Wipes Billions From Softbank Shares

Refusing to be cowed by a flurry of cancellations that have effectively gutted Riyadh’s Future Investment Initiative – colloquially known as “Davos in the Desert” – Saudi Arabia has lashed out at the US and its Western allies, warning that there will be hell to pay if anybody dares sanction the world’s largest oil exporter. If Mr. Trump is bothered by oil prices at $80 a barrel, the Saudis have wagered, imagine how uncomfortable he would be with oil at $200 a barrel? Already, oil traders have recognized Saudi’s “weaponization” of OPEC’s ability to control global oil supplies, while Saudi’s Tadawul stock exchange plunged 8% at the lows on Sunday (though this drop was mitigated in part by a late-session rebound).

MBS

But the tentacles of capital emanating out of Riyadh stretch across the world, to Tokyo and San Francisco and beyond, what one NYT op-ed writer described as Silicon Valley’s “Saudi Arabia problem.” And nowhere is this link more evident than with Tokyo-traded Softbank, whose shares have born the brunt of investors’ indignation over the burgeoning diplomatic crisis (a crisis rooted in Saudi Arabia’s suspected murder of a former-insider-turned-dissident-journalist inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul). Softbank shares closed more than 7.3% lower on Monday in Tokyo, a move that analysts partly attributed to the instability surrounding Saudi Arabia. Since Softbank’s September peak, the company has shed more than $22 billion in market capitalization, according to BBG data.

A pullback in tech shares like Nvidia, in which Softbank owns a major stake, has helped weigh on Softbank shares as one BBG columnist calculated that SB’s Nvidia stake was “the major factor” driving Softbank’s profitability last year.

Just like the broader market, the pullback in tech was inspired, at least in part, by anxieties surrounding the US-China trade war. But its Saudi ties are increasingly becoming an intolerable risk in the eyes of investors.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Sydney playing risky and costly metropoly games amid oil price fears (part 1)

Sydney playing risky and costly metropoly games amid oil price fears (part 1)

Sydney must be the only city in the world which closes its most modern heavy rail tunnel, 12.5 kms, designed for its ubiquitous double deckers and used by long distance commuters for an unacceptable long period of 7 months, only to be downgraded to narrow body, seat starved single deck trains, incompatible with the whole of Sydney’s rail system and touted to the public as a “metro”.

Epping_rail_tunnel_closure_Oct2018

Fig 1: Escalators to underground platforms 5&6 at Epping station in early October 2018

Epping_Chatswood_open_Feb2009

Fig 2: First train in Epping – Chatswood tunnel, was not missed by then Premier Rees

The rail tunnel was opened in Feb 2009, 10 years after it was first announced in the Action for Transport 2010 plan. It was in operation for just 9.5 years. That is the life-span of Sydney’s rail infrastructure.

Lee_Lin_Chin_SL1

Fig 3: NSW government’s promotional video

The NSW government’s propaganda machinery even had to employ a well-known TV presenter to sell their replacement bus services to frustrated passengers. Here is the bus job ahead:

Epping-train_1730_23Jul2018

Fig 4: Standing only in a 17:30 double decker to Epping via Macquarie Park in July 2018

This article continues research done 4 years ago:

4/1/2015 Sydney mismanages transition to driver-less single deck trains (part 2)

30/12/2014 Sydney plans to dismantle rail infrastructure built just 6 years ago (part 1)

Would the government even dare to think closing the Lane Cove road tunnel which runs parallel to the rail tunnel, for that period? Not much public resistance was put up against the rail tunnel closure. After 20 years of 2 consecutive governments back-flipping on various permutations of rail links in Sydney’s North-West, the electorate has obviously resigned, knowing that the opposition is just as bad as the government of the day. In a certain sense Sydney’s rail planning seems to mirror the revolving door syndrome of Federal politics on climate change and renewable energy.

PRL_closed

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

We Have Entered The Zone When Yields Trigger Market Selloffs

With payrolls now in the rearview mirror and nothing too outlandish revealed in the generally goldilocks data, traders have resumed contemplating the one question that is on everyone’s mind: how much higher (and at what pace) will rates rise before stocks are slammed?

To be sure, the recent spike in US yields – driven by a combination of very strong US growth data, sturdy equity gains, rising oil prices and improving global growth expectations – and the dollar can extend in the near-term, but as UBS points out, only as long as risk tolerates this (another key aspect is the recent speed of yields increase, which “might become problematic”): naturally, once rates rise high enough there will be a capital reallocation out of stocks and into bonds. The question, of course, is what is  “high enough.”

Alternatively, US yields could rise further, if global growth firms up and ex-US yields rise independently – and also if the neutral rate (r-star) is seen as rising in tandem with yields – but in that case the dollar rally would come to an end. Which is why, to UBS long term, US yields are likely to peak in the 12 months ahead “and the higher we go from here the closer we get to that peak – at least levels-wise.”

But the biggest question whether US yields keep rising will depend on whether risky assets tolerate the spike. Earlier this year, UBS looked at the uptick in US yields and subsequent equities sell-offs of at least 5%. What the Swiss bank found is that the more gradual the rise, the higher the threshold to generate equity pain, and inversely the faster the move higher – and the latest episode has seen a 40bps move higher in just over a month – the more acute the equity reaction.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

IEA Asks Majors Oil Producers To Boost Production

IEA Asks Majors Oil Producers To Boost Production

oil drilling

Rising oil prices are hurting consumers, Fatih Birol, the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), says, calling on major all producers to do the best they can to further boost production and ease persistent supply concerns that pushed Brent Crude to above $86 a barrel on Wednesday.

“Some countries have been making efforts to increase production but this is far from comforting the markets right now,” Birol told the Financial Times on Thursday, adding that his “hope is that all the producers are aware of the sensitive situation and make their best efforts.”

Although higher energy prices may look like a boon for oil exporting countries today, tomorrow the economies of oil exporters will also suffer because of the lower demand growth stemming from high oil prices, Birol told FT.

In an interview with Reuters, also today, Birol said that:

“It is now high time for all the players, especially those key producers and oil exporters, to consider the situation and take the right steps to comfort the market, otherwise I don’t see anybody benefiting.”

Earlier this week, the IEA chief also took to Twitter to comment on the oil price rally in recent weeks and its implications on global economy.

“Rising oil prices are hurting consumers & economic growth prospects today – globally but particularly in the emerging economies – but in a rapidly changing energy world could also have implications for producers tomorrow,” Birol tweeted on Tuesday. Related: A New Era Of LNG Megaprojects

U.S. President Donald Trump has also used Twitter several times this year to slam OPEC for keeping oil prices too high.

Birol’s comments on oil prices and what oil producers should do come just after Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said earlier this week that Saudi Arabia would be pumping 10.7 million bpd in October—just below the Kingdom’s highest-ever production level—and would slightly raise production volumes in November.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

How Will The Surge In Oil Prices Impact US GDP: One Bank Answers

Back in late 2014, when oil prices tumbled after the OPEC “thanksgiving massacre“, the conventional narrative was that dropping oil prices were a boon for the economy as they resulted in lower gas prices and thus greater discretionary income. The stark reality emerged quickly, however, once US corporations halted capex spending, resulting in a mini-recession for business investment coupled with dozens of shale bankruptcies.

Fast forward 4 years when Brent oil prices are trading back near $85/barrel, their highest level since October 2014, right before they tumbled. And with the “lower oil is beneficial for GDP” narrative discredited, following the recent rally, questions about the economic impact of oil prices have resurfaced, among them: have higher oil prices contributed to the upside surprises to 2018 growth via higher energy capex, as Chairman Powell suggested last week? Can US shale further ramp up production when capacity constraints are looming? Do higher energy prices still exert a meaningful drag on consumer spending and boost core inflation in an era of increased energy efficiency?

This is an analysis that Goldman conducted this week, and found that higher oil prices have had a neutral impact on GDP growth so far this year with a -0.25pp contribution from lower real consumption roughly offset by a +0.25pp contribution from higher energy capital spending. However, if oil prices remain at their current level the net growth contribution will decline to -0.1pp to -0.2pp in 2018Q4 and 2019H1.

The key reason is that while higher oil prices will remain a steady drag on consumption growth, the boost to energy capex is likely to shrink as the shale industry runs into transportation capacity constraints. It is only in 2019 H2 that the eventual arrival of new pipelines will likely trigger a re-acceleration of energy capital spending.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Putin: Trump Is To Blame For Higher Oil Prices

Just hours after President Trump implicitly threatened Saudi Arabia with a withdrawal of military protection (a threat that was possibly inspired by OPEC+ ignoring Trump’s demands to raise production at its Algiers meeting last month) Russian President Vladimir Putin said out loud what many oil traders have been thinking: That the recent run up in oil prices is Trump’s own fault.

Putin

During a speech at the Energy Week conference in Moscow, Putin said higher prices are “to some extent the result of the US administration” and its decision to reimpose sanctions on Iran (which will take effect next month) as well as its sanctions against Venezuela – not to mention the disastrous US military intervention in Libya, which was masterminded by Trump’s erstwhile political rival, Hillary Clinton. Before Trump decided to withdraw from the Iran deal, OPEC and other major exporters (including Russia) had more or less pushed the global market back into balance after several years of oversupply. Putin also said he believes a “good range” for oil prices would be between $65 and $75 a barrel and that Russia has the capacity to ramp up production by 200,000-300,000 barrels a day (and according to media reports, Russia is indeed planning to ramp up production through the end of the year).

“President Trump has said he thinks the oil price is too high. Well, probably to some extend he’s right, but we are absolutely OK with it at $65 to $75 per barrel to ensure the efficient operation of oil companies and ensure investment,” Putin said Wednesday during an address to delegates at the Russia Energy Week forum in Moscow.

“But let’s be frank, such oil prices are to some extent the result of the U.S. administration. I’m talking about sanctions against Iran, about political problems in Venezuela and just looking at what’s happening in Libya.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Oil Slides After Russia, Saudi Arabia Agree To Boost Output: Report

Rumors that Saudi Arabia might raise oil production spread across financial media last week, prompting representatives of the Kingdom to eventually step in and confirm that the Kingdom planned to ramp up production to try and compensate for the expected hole in global supply left by Iranian exports once US sanctions are reimposed. And as it turns out, Saudi may not be the only major exporter preparing to ramp up production.

China

With oil prices reaching ever-greater highs this week, angering President Trump, who again lashed out at Saudi Arabia during a rally Tuesday night (he reminded the kingdom that it wouldn’t last two weeks without US protection), crude dropped from the highs following reports that Saudi Arabia and Russia had told the US earlier this year that they had planned to boost production through December. What’s more, they had reportedly informed the US of their plans before the OPEC+ meeting in Algiers.

  • RUSSIA AND SAUDI ARABIA AGREED IN SEPTEMBER TO BOOST OIL OUTPUT THROUGH DECEMBER – SOURCES FAMILIAR WITH TALKS
  • RUSSIA AND SAUDI ARABIA TOLD U.S. OF PLANS TO RAISE OUTPUT BEFORE ALGIERS MEETING IN SEPTEMBER -SOURCES

The news prompted crude oil future to slide off the highs.

Oil

Emerging Markets Slammed By Soaring Oil Prices

US consumers may be cursing rising gasoline prices which are rapidly approaching an average of $3.00 across the nation as Brent hits a new 4 year high above $84, but that is nothing compared to the horror that motorists across most emerging markets are facing.

With currencies across the developing world tumbling as a result of a toxic mix of global trade tensions, the strong dollar and rising U.S. interest rates, dollar-denominated crude has become all the more expensive. And while the price of Brent crude, the international oil price gauge, has risen by 22% this year in dollar terms, its cost has doubled if you’re buying in Turkish lira. It is up 39% in Indian rupees and 34% in Indonesian rupiah. And don’t even mention Argentina.

The soaring prices are forcing emerging-market countries and central banks to act. According to the WSJ, India, the world’s third-biggest oil importer, is weighing temporarily limiting oil imports, while Brazil and Malaysia have introduced fuel subsidies. On Thursday, central banks in Indonesia and the Philippines both raised interest rates to tame rising inflation.

In South Africa, where fuel prices are at a record high, the central bank said in a statement last week that “the impact of elevated oil prices and a weaker exchange rate on domestic fuel costs is increasingly evident.”

“Emerging markets already have a lot of problems as it is, and when you throw an oil price spike to the mix, that creates another big risk factor,” said Jon Harrison, managing director for emerging markets strategy at TS Lombard.

The sharp spike in oil – and gasoline prices – assures a double whammy to the economy as local infrastructure is forced to, literally, slow down. And absent a major change, such as a sharp drop in the dollar or oil prices, the large developing nations like Turkey, India, the Philippines and South Africa are out of luck as they import all or most of their oil.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Oil Mania Redux

Oil Mania Redux

Positive Energy

By now, late September of 2018, it has become increasingly evident that something big is about to happen. What exactly that may be is anyone’s guess.  But, whatever it is, we suggest you prepare for it now… before it is too late.

Art auction energizer: Norman Rockwell’s portrait of John Wayne. You can’t go wrong shelling out top dollar for me, pilgrim, can you? [PT]

Several weeks ago, if you haven’t heard, an undisclosed rich guy enthusiastically bid up and then bought Norman Rockwell’s portrait of John Wayne for a cool $1.49 million at the 12th Annual Jackson Hole Art Auction. According to auction coordinator  Madison Webb, “There was a really positive energy in the room.”

Indeed, it takes a lot of really positive energy – and a healthy bank account – to shell out that sum of money for a painting of “The Duke.”  Still, positive energy, like good weather, can quickly turn negative. Soon enough, we suppose, the purchaser’s excitement will transform into a serious case of buyer’s remorse.

Of course, we could be wrong.  The buyer could have a special liking for old John Wayne movies.  Perhaps he’s a collector of Norman Rockwell paintings.  Or maybe he won the lottery and is compelled to burn through his winnings in odd and outlandish ways.

What this has to do with anything is a bit of a stretch.  But art, if this qualifies as such, offers a rough barometer of social mood (see:  The Bubble in Modern Art). Moreover, when the price for a painting of a 20th century actor pretending to be a 19th century character of American nostalgia sells at nearly a million and a half bucks, we suspect something more is at work.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Canadian Shale Is Hitting The Wall

Canadian Shale Is Hitting The Wall

Oil rigs

Plunging Canadian prices have been depressing oil producers’ realized prices and revenues, even though the U.S. benchmark and the international Brent Crude prices have rallied year to date.

But it’s not only oil sands producers that have been coping with wide price differentials between Canadian crude oil prices and WTI this year.

Canada’s shale drillers have also started to face widening differentials between the Canadian benchmark for light oil delivered at Edmonton and WTI, due to—unsurprisingly—insufficient pipeline infrastructure to transport the light oil to the market.

The Edmonton sweet crude discount to WTI slumped to US$16 a barrel earlier this month—the widest spread since Bloomberg began compiling the data in June 2014.

Not that Western Canadian Select (WCS)—the benchmark price of oil from Canada’s oil sands delivered at Hardisty, Alberta—has been doing any better. The WCS discount to WTI has been more than US$20 this year, and even US$30 at one point. This resulted in Canada Natural Resources saying in early August that it was allocating capital to lighter oil drilling and is curtailing heavy oil production as the price of Canadian heavy oil tumbled to a nearly five-year-low relative to the U.S. benchmark price.

Higher oil prices this year have encouraged more Canadian light tight oil and condensate drilling and production, but takeaway capacity—the weakest link of Canada’s oil industry—is maxed and has already started to affect the realized prices of shale drillers, similar to the widening discount for Midland crude from the Permian in the United States.

To be sure, Canadian shale producers are still making money, even with a wider discount, because WTI is now at $70 a barrel, analysts tell Bloomberg.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

What Will Trigger The Next Oil Price Crash?

What Will Trigger The Next Oil Price Crash?

Rig

Are we nearing another financial crisis?

The supply-side story for oil prices is heavily skewed to the upside, with production losses from Iran and Venezuela causing a rapid tightening of the market. But the demand side of the equation is much more complex and harder to pin down.

Economists and investment banks are increasingly sounding the alarm on the global economy, raising red flags about the potential dangers ahead. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase recently suggested that a full-scale trade war would lead the steep corporate losses and a bear market for stocks.

The Trump administration just took its trade war with China to a new level, adding $200 billion worth of tariffs on imported Chinese goods. That was met with swift retaliation. Trump promised another $267 billion in tariffs are in the offing.

JPMorgan said that after scanning through more than 7,000 earnings transcripts, the topic of tariffs was widely discussed and feared. Around 35 percent of companies said tariffs were a threat to their business, JPMorgan said, as reported by Bloomberg.

But the risks don’t stop there. The Federal Reserve is steadily hiking interest rates, making borrowing more expensive around the world and upsetting a long line of currencies. The strength of the U.S. dollar has led to havoc in Argentina and Turkey, with slightly less but still significant currency turmoil in India, Indonesia, South Africa, Russia and an array of other emerging markets. Currency problems could morph into bigger debt crises, as governments struggle to repay debt, and companies and individuals get crushed by dollar-denominated liabilities.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Global Stocks Slide As Trade War Enters New Phase; Oil Surges

U.S. stock futures followed European and Asian shares lower in thin volume after China called off planned trade talks with the U.S. and the Trump administration imposed another $200 billion in “Phase II” China tariffs just after midnight; oil jumped 2.4% as OPEC+ members defied Trump’s calls for lower oil prices during a weekend conference, refusing to boost output.

Asia set the downbeat tone as Hong Kong stocks fell, while thinner than average volumes across Asia due to holidays in China, South Korea and Japan.  “Given that the trade talks are off, investors will be watching what happens after the implementation of the tariffs and particularly whether the U.S. will move to the next phase, which would be tariffs on a further $267 billion of Chinese goods,” said Dushyant Padmanabhan, a currency strategist at Nomura in Singapore. White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said on NPR’s Morning Edition that “the president was crystal clear in his statement: if China retaliates, the process will move forward on the additional amount.”

European stocks followed lower, with miners and carmakers, both sectors heavily exposed to global trade, among the biggest decliners in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, while futures on the S&P 500 and Dow pointed to a weaker open. Randgold Resources and bucked the trend to rally on merger news following news of a merger with Barrick, creating the world’s largest gold miner; Sky also rose after Comcast beat Fox in the auction for the broadcaster with a $39 billion bid, a deal that has been two years in the making. Comcast will start buying Sky shares in the market in order to reach the 50% threshold before the Oct. 11 deadline. Current shareholders just got an extra 9% for their patience as Comcast will pay 1,728p for the shares.

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Is The Oil Burden A Rising Problem?

Is The Oil Burden A Rising Problem?

While markets become increasingly bullish, oil prices are close to a “warning zone” where the barrel could be one -if not the only- catalyst of a major slowdown.

In my book “Escape from the Central Bank Trap”, I explain the concept of the “Oil Burden”. It is the percentage of global GDP spent on buying oil. It is often said that when the oil burden reaches 5-6% of GDP it can be a cause of a global slowdown.

The mistake that many make is to think that the oil burden is a cause and not a symptom.

In the past, we have seen that a period of abrupt increases in oil prices was followed by a recession or a crisis. However, not because oil prices rose rapidly, but because the dramatic increase in commodities’ prices was caused by a bubble of credit and excess monetary stimuli.

In reality, the oil burden is perfectly manageable at 5% of GDP because the energy intensity of GDP growth is diminishing. We are less dependent on energy to create growth in the economy.

Global energy intensity (total energy consumption per unit of GDP) declined by 1.2% in 2017, slightly below its historical yet unstoppable trend (-1.5%/year on average between 2000 and 2017 and -1.8% in 2016). In fact, global energy intensity is down 54% since 1990.

So the problem is not the oil burden by itself but the cause of the price spike.

When oil prices rise abruptly we should be concerned, because they can cause a domino effect on the real economy. When the reason for the price increase is not fundamental, we have a major problem.

Why are oil prices rising abnormally in recent months?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Not ‘in Tatters’: Why the West Has Failed to Destroy Russia’s Economy

Not ‘in Tatters’: Why the West Has Failed to Destroy Russia’s Economy

Not ‘in Tatters’: Why the West Has Failed to Destroy Russia’s Economy

Despite Barack Obama’s economic sanctions against Russia, and the plunge in oil prices that King Saud agreed to with Obama’s Secretary of State John Kerry on 11 September 2014, the economic damages that the US and Sauds have aimed against a particular oil-and-gas giant, Russia, have hit mostly elsewhere — at least till now.

This has been happening while simultaneously Obama’s violent February 2014 coup overthrowing Ukraine’s democratically elected pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych (and the head of the ‘private CIA’ firm Stratfor calls it “the most blatant coup in history”) has caused Ukraine’s economy to plunge even further than Russia’s, and corruption in Ukraine to soar even higher than it was before America’s overthrow of that country’s final freely elected nationwide government, so that Ukraine’s economy has actually been harmed far more than Russia’s was by Obama’s coup in Ukraine and Obama’s subsequent economic sanctions against Russia (sanctions that are based on clear and demonstrable Obama lies but that continue and even get worse under Trump).

Bloomberg News headlined on February 4th of 2016, “These Are the World’s Most Miserable Economies” and reported the “misery index” rankings of 63 national economies as projected in 2016 and 60 as actual in 2015 — a standard ranking-system that calculates “misery” as being the sum of the unemployment-rate and the inflation-rate. They also compared the 2016 projected rankings to the 2015 actual rankings.

Top rank, #1 both years — the most miserable economy in the world during 2015 and 2016 — was Venezuela, because of that country’s 95% dependence upon oil-export earnings (which crashed when oil-prices plunged). The US-Saudi agreement to flood the global oil market destroyed Venezuela’s economy.

#2 most-miserable in 2015 was Ukraine, at 57.8. But Ukraine started bouncing back so that as projected in 2016 it ranked #5, at 26.3. Russia in 2015 was #7 most-miserable in 2015, at 21.1, but bounced back so that as projected in 2016 it became #14 at 14.5.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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