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Olduvai II: Exodus
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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Olduvai III: Cataclysm
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The 8.6-Year Frequency is Within Nature

QUESTION: You have noticed that the 8.6-year frequency even allowed you to see that volcanic eruptions would begin in 2018. Are there other examples from history where you have found this to also be true or was Hawaii just unique?


ANSWER: Oh, there are plenty of examples. Let’s take one of the most famous volcanic eruptions in history – Vesusius. Everybody has heard of Pompeii which was destroyed by the eruption of August 24th, 79AD. That eruption was so violent, it hurled stone and ash 20,000 meters (65,000+ feet) into the sky which then came down and buried Pompeii and Herculaneum. There is even a current song out on the destruction of Pompeii by Bastille.

However, there was a major earthquake 17.2 years before (2 x 8.6) that took place in 62AD which was devastating and also produced a tsunami. On February 5th, 62 AD a powerful earthquake that was probably a 7.5+ in magnitude occurred, with the epicenter at Pompeii the prelude to the eruption. The Latin adviser to Emperor Nero (54-68AD) Seneca the Younger wrote a description of the event. Sheep died from falling rocks and statues were toppled. He even said some people lost their minds and wandered around in their madness.

This earthquake was as significant and 1906 San Francisco earthquake which destroyed much of the city. Like the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake led to the Financial Panic of 1907, which inspired the creation of the Federal Reserve by 1913 almost 8 years following that disaster, we see similar reforms in Rome which also included a monetary system reform.

Pompeii at the time had a population of at least 20,000 and was a tightly packed city which was not particularly favorable for surviving earthquakes. Much of the city was constructed from bricks which tend to crumble easily. Seneca reported that while Pompeii was severely damaged, Herculaneum had far less damage while Naples was barely touched. He described the earthquake in vivid terms:

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Climate Change & the 43-Year Cycle

QUESTION: Dear Martin,

I was browsing through the website of NASA and came across a graph (see attachment).
It shows the temperature differences between 1880 and 2012. As far as I can see there seems to be a +/- 40-year cycle. I have edited it with the red vertical lines. The end of the current 40-year cycle should be around 2020, which, if I am not mistaken, coincides with a date you have mentioned previously in one of your blogs. This could mean that around that date a new 40-year cycle should start and temperatures should decline. What is your opinion on this?

Best regards,


ANSWER: Yes, not bad. Look closely. The Japanese data seems to be the least messed with. The others have recalculated the data numerous times to get the biggest effect. Our model shows a 43-year cycle to be precise. That is driven by the energy output of the sun for it tests back into ancient times as well. The Japanese data is the least “politically correct” data whereas the US versions have an agenda behind them to justify raising taxes as if we can really change the climate of the entire planet. They get away with this because they confuse people with pollution and climate change. Hospital waste dumped in the sea does not change the climate but is disgusting and dangerous in spreading disease.

The energy output of the sun peaked in 2015 and has been crashing faster than anyone thought possible. The fascinating thing as you look at the chart and see the cycle. They do not. They forecast linearly whatever trend is in motion will last forever.

Weather Impacted Wars & Migrations in Pre-Recorded History

Archaeologists working in the wetlands of Denmark have uncovered 2,000-year-old human remains are revealing that the Germanic “barbarians” were engaging in warfare in northern Europe against other barbarian tribes which had nothing to do with Rome. The research, which was published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, provides a unique look at how Germanic tribes memorialized their battles. The sheer magnitude of the number of remains demonstrates that the Germanic armies were clearly organized with leadership. There is no recorded history of this people so all we have to go on are the things left behind.

One thing to emerge is that the climate in Northern Europe was turning very cold. Even by 170AD, when the Roman Emperor Marcus Aurelius was battling the Germanic attempts to invade the south most likely due to climate change. He wrote his Mediataions to keep his mind distracted from the cold at night. He sent his children home to Rome to live with their great-great-aunt Matidia because Marcus thought the evening air of the country was far too cold for them. He even asked his friend for “some particularly eloquent reading matter, something of “your own, or Cato, or Cicero, or Sallust or Gracchus—or some poet, for I need distraction, especially in this kind of way, by reading something that will uplift and diffuse my pressing anxieties.” id/ Ad Antoninum Imperator 4.1 (= Haines 1.300ff), qtd. and tr. Birley, Marcus Aurelius, 120.

It appears from this new evidence that as the weather grew colder and colder, barbarians first fought against each other for resources. It appears that after such inter-tribal warfare proved fruitless, this is when the Germanic invasions of Rome begin. The Germanic invasions of Rome began during 113 BC and lasted until they finally conquered Rome by 596 AD.

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Emerging Market Debt Defaults on the Horizon?

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; You said that the emerging markets are a huge problem that will lead to a Sovereign Debt Default. Can you elaborate on that statement?

Thank you for your insight


ANSWER: The emerging markets are in far worse shape today than they were even back in 2008. They have issued heaps of dollar-denominated debt to sell particularly to US pension funds seeking higher yield. Some of the buyers have been state-run pension funds. The outstanding Emerging Market debt has exploded by 50%. The majority of the increase in emerging market indebtedness has been in local currency, which was more than $48.5 trillion as of the end of 2016 from around $43 trillion in 2015 and is pressing $50 trillion for 2017.

We passed $200 trillion in global sovereign debt back in 2016. All of these dollar bears that yell about the USA at $20 trillion, ignore where the world stands at and the fact the USA is still the only economy holding everything up. Both the Emerging Market and EU countries have used the cheap interest rates to just pile on more debt – not reform. This is why central banks have lost all capability of manipulating interest rates to direct the economy. All of those theories are entirely dependent upon DEMAND management. They may, in theory, be able to manage the “demand” of the consumer, but they have zero influence over government spending. They lower rates to stimulate private demand and simply underwrite government debt.

The world comes unglued ONLY with a dollar rally – not a decline. A drop in the dollar would be cheered by governments who would then issue even more debt. A dollar rally will cause the Sovereign Debt Crisis – not a dollar decline. Emerging Market defaults are once again on the timeline. They are economically in far worse shape today than they were in 2008. As interest rates rise, they will blow their budget out and they do NOT have the economies to support the debt repayments (excluding China).

What If We Just Wiped Out All Debt?

QUESTION: Hello Marty

I am hoping you will print this in your blog.

Everyone knows that Govt’s/Banks print money out of thin air and then “owe interest” to this invented money. To avoid an interest payment death spiral why can’t all the Govt’s in the world just tell the banks to pound sand? Why can’t we tell them “Sorry….we are no longer going to make interest payments on money you invented out of nothing”.



ANSWER: I actually get this question often. I understand that the sophistry out there makes it sound so easy. Unfortunately, this is nowhere near the mark. The bulk of the lending that leverages the money supply is involved in consumer loans. So this really would create a very unfair arrangement that reminds me of the incident with Mark Antony. Everyone talked about the bankers and assumed that Julius Caesar would rule that all debt was to be forgiven. Mark Anthony believed Caesar would do that so he ran out and bought Pompey estate assuming he would never have to pay for it (see Anatomy of a Debt Crisis it appears, only Julius Caesar ever understood).

To do what you suggest may sound simple but it would produce riots and blood in the streets. Your pension would be gone because most funds invest in debt. What if you were retiring and bought muni bonds to live on because you were told they were tax-free? Perhaps you could not sell your house to retire because the buyer could not get a mortgage so you took the mortgage. That would mean he now gets the house for free.

Trust me – it would be a bloodbath in the streets.

Illinois to Impose 1% Property Tax on Top of Everything Annually for 30 Years


In Illinois is a State that should just commit suicide and be emerged into surrounding states. It is following the EXACT pattern as the fall of the city of Rome itself. Constantine the Great moved the Roman capital from Rome to Constantinople around 330AD. Rome lost its status as corruption and taxes rose. More and more people just walked away from their property for there was NO BID.

Property values are already collapsing in Illinois.  The Pension Crisis is worldwide, but Illinois is leading the charge. The words of Edward Gibbon from his Decline & Fall of the Roman Empire are very applicable to Chicago. This is how empires, nations, and city-states die. It is always the abuse of taxation that drives people from their homes. Illinois is the NUMBER ONE state that now has a NET loss of citizens and people are fleeing that state. Bureaucrats cannot see the trend any more than they can see their own nose. They only see raising taxes. To them there is just no other way. They come first. Gibbon wrote:

“Her primeval state, such as she -might–appear in a remote age, when Evander entertained the stranger of Troy, has been delineated by the fancy of Virgil. This Tarpeian rock was then a savage and solitary thicket; in the time of the poet, it was crowned with the golden roofs of a temple, the temple is overthrown, the gold has been pillaged, the wheel of Fortune has accomplished her revolution, and the sacred ground is again disfigured with thorns and brambles. The hill of the Capitol, on which we sit, was formerly the head of the Roman Empire, the citadel of the earth, the terror of kings; illustrated by the footsteps of so many triumphs, enriched with the spoils and tributes of so many nations. 

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What Really Causes Inflation & Deflation?

QUESTION: why national debts eventually default Martin to answer this question you said:

we need to introduce currency. France and Germany were less impacted by converting to the Euro than Greece, Italy, Spain, and Portugal. Why? Currency Inflation!

My question is if it is not the quantity of money that is making $1 million buy fewer Cadillacs, then what is the trigger?

Is it the national debt, being devalued by a lower dollar?

What then is causing that dollar to go lower and purchase less if not a quantity of money causing fewer goods to be chased by more money?


ANSWER: It is a combination of many trends. The idea of inflation is caused by an increase in money supply has been the one-dimensional answer. It may sound logical, but it is far from the actual cause. Inflation and Deflation are more directly impacted by the credit cycle than the creation of money by the state.


Here is a chart of M2, which includes a broader set of financial assets held principally by households. M2 consists of M1 plus: (1) savings deposits (which include money market deposit accounts, or MMDAs); (2) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000); and (3) balances in retail money market mutual funds. If we look at money supply, then inflation should always exist without end. Clearly, money supply is not the only factor involved.

Here is what is known as the adjusted monetary base, which equals the sum of the monetary source base and an appropriate RAM adjustment. The adjusted monetary base is composed of the adjusted total reserves and adjusted nonborrowed reserves. When we redefine the money supply looking at the entire monetary spectrum, you get to see the Quantitative Easing and it peaked in line with the ECM.

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BIG BANG is Here and Ticking

QUESTION:  Dear Marty,
due to 5,000-year lows in interest rates, in 2011 the US was able to triple the debt but keep the payments the same as in 1998. With interest rates rising (but still historically low) in 2017 the US paid the highest interest payment on the debt in history. Could you please elaborate on that?

Thank you for sharing your wisdom.
Kind regards,

ANSWER: This is going to be a major topic at the WEC. This is a major time bomb that amazingly nobody seems to be paying attention to. Rates are going higher for they need that to help the pension crisis. The USA is nowhere as bad as it appears in Europe from a debt perspective. This whole mess is going to explode in our face and this is going to be the serious trend going into the next ECM turning point.

The debts of governments around the globe are going to move up exponentially. This is very serious for some will raise taxes to try to keep the game going but that will cause even more deflation. I cannot express how SERIOUS this is. While everyone is looking at the stock market, others at the dollar and gold, they are missing the greatest threat to civilization since the 12th century.

Interest rates began to rise as soon as we passed the peak in this 8.6-year was – 2015.75. The Fed raised interest rates for the first time once the ECM turned.

The number of institutions calling and governments has been rising ever since the ECM turned. This is not going to get better and it is not going to just fade away. Sorry, if we keep our eyes closed and even hide under the bed, it will not matter.

Can US Russian Sanctions Start A Financial Crisis?

The US sanctions against Russia are pointless and are placing the West at risk the politicians are too stupid to even comprehend. Already, some Russian companies have asked the government for liquidity injections of up to $2 billion. Even the world’s second-largest aluminum producer Rusal has asked for help. Nevertheless, the impact of sanctions goes beyond the internal borders of Russia for they also impact the international financial markets.

For example, Rusal had previously made clear that the US sanctions are threatening their ability to even meet debt obligations. They carry $7.7 billion of debt in US dollars of which about $1 billion in debt is maturing within five years. In terms of US dollars, Rusal cannot even pay the debts because it would have to do so through US banks. That means, under the sanctions, they would have to default on their bonds. Now let’s turn to Polyus, which is Russia’s largest gold producer. Here they have also $5 billion in US debt. Those US dollar bonds maturing in 2024.  doubles as sanctions become known.

The same story applies to many Russian companies for they still have to conduct business in US dollars regardless of the sanctions. For example, let’s look closer at Rusal. Here the company conducts over 60% of all its business in US dollars. The US sanctions prohibit Americans from doing business with the affected Russian companies or individuals. This is really crazy. Any Russian state-controlled bank cannot step in as an intermediate because they could then become the target of sanctions itself.

Western investors are actually the ones who will be punished by the US sanctions if the Russian companies cannot pay their debts under the law. They cannot even go to an intermediary in Europe for they too could then be targeted by the US for violating the sanctions.

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The US Two-Tier Monetary System that Ended in 1971

QUESTION: You said the US had a two-tier monetary system under Bretton Woods. Can you explain that one, please?


ANSWER: When Roosevelt confiscated gold, he created, in reality, a two-tier monetary system quite frankly as the medieval city of Florence. The Great Financial Panic of 1344 was when the value of silver rose dramatically blowing out the silver/gold ratio. Silver was used locally for the normal people. Their wages were paid in silver. The gold florin was used for international trade and companies had to keep actually two sets of books with accounting in each separate currency.

When Roosevelt confiscated gold, he devalued the dollar from $20.67 per ounce of gold to $35. Gold remained the unit of account for INTERNATIONAL transactions. While the last silver dollar was at first still minted, it was decided to end that production as well. Therefore, the last U.S. silver dollar to be struck was that of 1935. Nonetheless, the government then maintained silver as a backing for the currency domestically and issued Silver Certificates until 1963.

When the price of silver was rising with just about all other commodities during the early 1960s, the pressure was mounting on the financial system. President Kennedy authorized the abandonment of silver as a backing for the currency. He allowed the silver certificates to be redeemed for silver bullion. However, the minimum lot accepted for redemption was 5,000 for this was the size of the silver bars.

Therefore, in 1963 is when we see the beginning of the end in the two-tier monetary system. Between 1964 and 1971, the gold standard remained intact until President Nixon was forced to close the gold window ending the convertibility of dollars to gold internationally.

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Greece & the Debt Crisis

The entire EU Crisis began precisely on schedule on the Political Pi Turning point from the major high in 2007. Precisely on the day of the ECM turning point, April 16, 2010 (2010.29) Greece notified the IMF it was on the verge of bankruptcy. By April 22nd, the Euro fell to near year-low levels amid concerns about Greece’s debt crisis. The IMF activated the loan facility and Greece received its first €45 billion on April 23rd, 2010. Then on May 9th, the IMF approved a bailout package for Greece with the largest loan and exceptional, fast-track access. Of course, that turning point of April 16th, 2010 was also the first time the SEC charged Goldman Sachs with outright FRAUD is selling its Mortgage Backed Securities.

Mother-MerkelIn dealing with Greece, the German head of state Chancellor Angela Merkel, had promised the German taxpayers that any loan to Greece they will be held to the fire and forced to repay. The polls were turning hard against Merkel as she was being bashed in the world press for Greece had forgiven Germany’s debt after World War II, but Merkel refused to provide any relief for Greece because of her campaign promise. The divert the press from here hardline policy on Greece, Merkel then summarily announced that she would take the refugees from Syria with open arms. That then began the European Refugee Crisis and Merkel then force the rest of Europe to share the burden she created unilaterally. The entire European Refugee Crisis was created by Merkel, and this has been at the center of the crisis which is tearing Europe apart at the seams. That came as the next ECM wave turned from its peak 2015.75.

Now as we approach the next political Pi Turning Point due on November 21st, 2018, which will be 8.6 years from when the Greek debt crisis began, the EU Commission has demanded from the Eurozone states that debt relief should be provided to Greece. 

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The Coming Monetary Reform – Behind the Curtain Talk

QUESTION: Okay Marty,

You keep saying “the world monetary system will have to be reformed.”

Spill! What do you hear behind the curtain?



ANSWER: I just returned from Europe where I had meetings with some high levels of interest. The great concern in Europe is the end of QE for there is a serious lack of liquidity. This is part of what is behind the drive to take Euro trading from London and hand it to Paris. The problem is obvious. There are those in Brussels who think that if the free markets go against them, they will be able to freeze the Euro to prevent a crash. I explained that they would not be able to take it from New York, Tokyo, Hong Kong and Sydney without ending it as a free currency. When I asked if they intended to convert the Euro to the old Russian Ruble of Soviet days, I did not get a reply.

In the USA, there is the realization that it is NOT a good thing for the dollar to be the Reserve Currency. This has made the Federal Reserve the effective world central bank. That has resulted in the Fed losing the power to control the domestic economy because of lobbying not to raise rates from Emerging Markets, Europe, and the IMF because it will hurt their economies which are in worse shape.

It is IMPOSSIBLE to pass a law and declare that the dollar is not the Reserve Currency any longer. That is not a factor of anything that Washington can control unless they convert the dollar to a restricted currency much akin to the Japanese yen. Anyone can issue a contract or borrow dollars in any country. You cannot issue a note or bond in Japanese yen without going back to the Ministry of Finance in Tokyo for their permission.

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Agriculture & Global Cooling

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Are you familiar with Professor Easterbrook of Western Washington University who agrees with you and is projecting a decline in temperatures for the next three decades? It seems that those who simply claim that it has been getting warmer live in a bubble of biased news. One even said to me that it has been getting warmer for the past 10,000 years because of civilization. I asked what was the solution? Should we just commit suicide to save the planet? Just can’t understand these people who deny there are cycles within every trend.


ANSWER: I know. We are closer to the lows than the historic highs in temperature. Our model does agree with Professor Easterbrook that the immediate decline in temperatures should extend out for about 43 years from 2007. It was unseasonably cold in Florida and snowed in the northern regions also for the first time since the Blizzard of 1899 and even that was about 120 years before. It was excessive snow and gold in Britain, Japan, and China, as well as Russia. They ignore these reports as one-time flukes.

The Global Warming crowd tries to deny that there are also cycles set in motion by the Sun and they attribute everything to human activity. Nobody wants air we cannot breathe. I lived in London back in the 1980s when the busses were blowing out diesel. It was horrible. But to stop pollution by distorting history or claiming the trend is really warmer for 10,000 years is the danger. That is like saying the Dow Jones Industrials is only in a bull market since 1932 pretending there are no corrections.  We must understand that nature is bigger than we are and the Sun just maybe the majority of climate change.

800,000-year Ice-Core Records of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

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Where do We go? Is Any Place Safe?

Many people have written in asking the same question:

“My question is as follows. Since we are all connected in this world. Will there be any place at all that will not be affected by a WW3? “

So far, we do not see anywhere in the developed world that will be unaffected. That does not mean it would be destroyed, just impacted economically. We are running our models all the time waiting for a glimpse of such an indication. We will certainly let everyone know if the computer finds such a place. What it appears to be is the destruction of the West’s economy. This seems to be connected largely to the collapse of socialism and government promises. It even appears that many governments are deliberately trying to instigate a war that they can use as an excuse to suspend debt payments which would allow them to deny their fiscal mismanagement for decades.

The computer has been projecting the collapse in sovereign debt on a global scale. Anyone with half a brain can see something is seriously wrong that the national debts just keep growing and we borrow money endlessly with no intention of paying anything back. You have to be a full moron to have created such a system that never ends. Even without war, we are headed into a Sovereign Debt Crisis which is inevitable.

As I have stated, interest expenditure will exceed military spending in the USA in 2019.  We can see that the national debt as a percent of GDP has been steadily rising in a breakout mode since the low established during the 2nd quarter 2001.  We reached a 13-year peak during the 1st quarter of 2014 and bottomed again with the Economic Confidence Model the 3rd quarter 2015 (2015.75). We have rallied once again making new highs and we are headed for the next high in 2020. Thereafter, the turning points will be 2027 and 2038.

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The Central Bank Crisis on the Immediate Horizon

While the majority keep bashing the Federal Reserve, other central banks seem to escape any criticism. The European Central Bank under Mario Draghi has engaged in what history will call the Great Monetary Experiment of the 21st Century – the daring experiment of negative interest rates. A look behind the scenes reveals that this experiment has been not just a failure, it has undermined the entire global economic structure. We are looking at pension funds being driven into insolvency as the traditional asset allocation model of 60% equity 40% bonds has failed to secure the future with negative interest rates. Then, the ECB has exceeded 40% ownership of Eurozone government debt. The ECB realizes it can not only sell any of its holdings ever again, it cannot even refuse to reinvest what it has already bought when those bonds expire. The Fed has announced it will not reinvest anything. Draghi is trapped. He cannot stop buying government debt for if he does, interest rates will soar. He cannot escape this crisis and it is not going to end nicely.

When this policy collapses, forced by the free markets (no bid), CONFIDENCE will collapse rapidly. Once people no longer believe the central banks can control anything, the end has arrived. We will be looking at the time at the WEC. We will be answering the question – Can a central bank actually fail?

Olduvai II: Exodus
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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Olduvai III: Cataclysm
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