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It’s time to move on to pastures new from my Saying NO… book, as I mentioned in my last post. Seems like an opportune moment to try an ‘open comment’ post to signal the change of direction, an idea I trailed at the start of the year.

What I think emerged from that discussion was for me to suggest a broad topic and perhaps a few talking points from it and then to see where things went in the discussion. Kind of like a normal post! Back then, Ruben wrote “ I would love to hear your thoughts on AMOC shutdown, drought, more frequent extreme weather, and other growing challenges for agriculture. That might be a good topic for an open post.” Indeed I believe it would be, so let’s go with that.

In case this is unfamiliar, the ‘AMOC’ is the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, the major current system in the Atlantic Ocean, involving the northward flow of warm water and the southward flow of colder water which helps moderate the climate of both colder high-latitude countries and warmer low-latitude ones. Studies have suggested that present human-caused climate change could result in the shutdown of the AMOC, the consequences for both colder and warmer countries within this Atlantic system being, not to overstate the case … very bad.

A recent study that models AMOC shutdown has put the heebie-jeebies up a lot of people, including me – see Prof Stefan Rahmstorf’s summary here. Seems like we could be on course for an AMOC shutdown tipping point within the next seventy years with 95 percent confidence…

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Snarled Supply Chain? Drought Prompts U-Turn Of Two Gas Tankers At Panama Canal

November 8, 2023

Snarled Supply Chain? Drought Prompts U-Turn Of Two Gas Tankers At Panama Canal

The El Niño weather pattern has sparked a drought this year across Central America that is creating extreme congestion at the Panama Canal, prompting some ships to turn around and seek alternative routes.

New shipping data from Bloomberg shows two liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) carriers, Pyxis Pioneer and Sunny Bright, recently turned around within 10 miles (16 kilometers) of the canal before sailing away.

Both vessels have a capacity of 158,000 cubic meters of LPG and were en route to major LPG facilities in the US Gulf. Their current destination, however, remains to be determined.

The canal relies on rainwater from Gatun Lake, a nearby artificial reservoir, to feed the lock system. The lack of rainfall this year because of El Nino has led canal authorities to impose draft and sailing restrictions.

One week ago, the Panama Canal Authority (PCA) said October was “the driest since the earliest registers, 73 years ago” and “caused by the El Nino phenomenon continues to impact the Panama Canal’s reservoir system and, as a result, water availability has been reduced.”

PCA has reduced the number of booking slots for vessels to transit the canal from 31 to 25 this month and will be reduced by nearly 30% to 18 by Feb. 1, 2024. In comparison, the maximum number of sustainable bookings is between 38-40 per day.

The most common vessels transiting the crucial waterway are dry bulk, containers, chemicals, and LPG vessels.

While the major supply chain disruptions from the pandemic have declined, new challenges are arising due to the low water levels at the Panama Canal, causing fresh supply chain issues.

Wheat Spread Hits Record As Drought Plagues Midwest

April 4, 2023

Wheat Spread Hits Record As Drought Plagues Midwest

The spread between hard-red winter wheat and soft-red winter wheat has blown out to a record high as drought threatens crop yields across the Midwest and other major farming regions.

Hard-red winter wheat’s premium over soft-red winter wheat is $1.72 a bushel in Chicago on Tuesday morning, surpassing the 2011 record.

James Bolesworth, managing director at CRM AgriCommodities, told Bloomberg the widening spread is “a factor of the drought in the US Plains which is detrimentally impacting crop conditions.”

The latest report from the US Department of Agriculture found Kansas (top producer) had only 19% of the acreage in good or excellent condition. Agritel analysts pointed out droughts are hitting crops in other states:

“A deterioration of the crop ratings is also visible in Texas and Colorado.”

Simultaneously, drought conditions plague the Canadian Prairies. Farmers in the region are planting in some of the driest conditions in half a century. They need adequate moisture to plant wheat and canola crops, or this might lead to poor crop yields later in the growing season, which could impact global supplies.

“If there isn’t good moisture, those tiny plants are quite susceptible to adverse conditions,” said Bill Prybylski, a farmer and vice president at the Agricultural Producers Association of Saskatchewan.

The possibility of lower US and Canadian wheat production because of persistent drought conditions could exacerbate global food supplies. Already, droughts in Argentina have reduced crop yields, and wartorn Ukraine has forced farmers to reduce plantings.

All of this means that global food inflation will likely remain elevated for the foreseeable future. How to hedge higher costs at the supermarket? Plant a garden.

USDA Reveals US Corn-Harvested Acres At 2008 Levels Amid Megadrought

January 15, 2023

USDA Reveals US Corn-Harvested Acres At 2008 Levels Amid Megadrought

Last year was a bad year for corn — the latest US Department of Agriculture (USDA) report shows drought conditions and extreme weather wreaked havoc on croplands.

USDA unexpectedly slashed its outlook for domestic corn production amid a severe drought across the western farm belt. Farmers in Nebraska, Kansas, and Texas were forced to abandon drought-plagued fields.

The agency estimated farmers harvested 79.2 million acres, a decline of 1.6 million acres versus the previous estimate — the smallest acres harvest since 2008.

The unexpected cut to US harvested corn acres means grain supplies are a lot tighter than realized. A report Thursday showed the corn area in the world’s largest producer is at the smallest since 2008 with crops failing in states such as Texas and Nebraska. That’s due to persistent drought conditions in the western part of the country that could also hit harvests for wheat plants that are currently dormant for the winter. — Bloomberg

The crop-failed lands reduced total harvest corn acreage to levels not seen since 2008.

Less acreage tightens supply and might continue to put a bid under corn prices.

Global food prices remain at crisis levels.

Here’s the current drought situation across the farm belt.

Corn production woes from the US don’t bode well in the fight to crush food inflation. It seems as if the prices for our food will remain high well through 2023.

One Of Spain’s Largest Hydro-Power Plants To Halt Operations As Drought Worsens

November 8, 2022

One Of Spain’s Largest Hydro-Power Plants To Halt Operations As Drought Worsens

A large drop in renewable energy output is forcing Spain to increase natural gas demand to generate electricity at a time Europe is in the worst energy crisis in a generation.

Spain’s hydropower output has been halved this year due to drought, and things could get a lot worse as one of the country’s largest hydropower plants is set to close.

Bloomberg reported the Mequinenza facility in the northeastern region of Aragon would halt hydropower generation in mid-November after water levels were 23% below capacity. It’ll be the first time the hydro plant has closed since it was constructed in 1996.

In the week through Nov. 1, Mequinenza was only producing 6,221 gigawatt-hours or operating at around 27% of total capacity. According to Bloomberg calculations based on Environmental Transition Ministry data, water levels in the reservoir have hit the lowest level since 1995. This means there’s not enough water flow to turn the plant’s turbines.

Spain’s hydropower generation has tumbled a whopping 53% this year through October, according to grid operator Red Electrica Corporacion SA. So when temperatures rise, and droughts persist, the hydropower industry gets squeezed hard.

Regarding other renewables like wind and solar, there is not enough output between the two to offset the loss in hydro, which means Spain has increased NatGas demand for power generation.

Data via network operator Enagas SA shows NatGas demand to generate electricity jumped 78% through October.

“A steep fall in renewable energy output is prompting the Mediterranean country to tap the fossil fuel to generate electricity at a time when Europe struggles with an unprecedented energy crisis following Russia’s decision to cut supply, which pushed prices to a record high,” Bloomberg said.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

UCSB Scientists See the End of ‘Normal’ Climate

October 3, 2022

UCSB Scientists See the End of ‘Normal’ Climate

Researcher Asks: ‘What Happens If You Know the Drought Is Never Going to End?’

Credit: Courtesy

In August, Governor Gavin Newsom and officials from the Department of Water Resources released a new Water Supply Strategy, saying that because of California’s “hotter, drier climate,” the state needed to find at least 10 percent more water to supply its farms, cities, and industry by 2040.

“We are experiencing extreme, sustained drought conditions in California and across the American West caused by hotter, drier weather,” states the plan. “Our warming climate means that a greater share of the rain and snowfall we receive will be absorbed by dry soils, consumed by thirsty plants, and evaporated into the air.”

The plan says that steadily rising temperatures will overcome even a year or two of better-than-average or average rainfall in Southern California — as in 2018 and 2019 — and will not close what state officials call an “evaporative gap” that threatens California’s water supply.

This new state plan follows the climate science on “aridification.” That’s the scientific term for the “drying trend” that young climate scientist Samantha Stevenson of UCSB’s Bren School of Environmental Science and Engineering identified this year in an extensive global study of the 21st-century hydroclimate.

Stevenson said that she wanted to provoke new thinking about what we call drought.

“Drought is already normal in much of the western United States and other parts of the world, such as western Europe,” Stevenson said. “Part of the reason I wrote the paper was to try to say that we need to think about what we mean when we say ‘drought,’ because we’ve been using these definitions based on expectations from 40 years ago. What happens if you know the drought is never going to end?”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

UCSB Scientists See the End of ‘Normal’ Climate

September 26, 2022

UCSB Scientists See the End of ‘Normal’ Climate

Researcher Asks: ‘What Happens If You Know the Drought Is Never Going to End?’

Credit: Courtesy

Stevenson said that she wanted to provoke new thinking about what we call drought.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Water. Food. Energy.

September 20, 2022

Water. Food. Energy.

Unless you have spent the past summer under a rock on a remote island, you have probably heard about the severe droughts besetting Asia, Europe, and the United States. Rivers turning into mere trickles. Crops failing or delivering less than half of their usual yields. Power plants shutting down due to a lack of cooling or fuel. The less advertised side of the story is that we have mostly done this to ourselves.

Drought is a sure killer for civilizations. A few years, let alone decades of persistent drought, have forced many civilization to their knees. The Akkadian Empire. The Mayans. The Tang Dynasty… The lack of water have forced people in the past to leave their settlements or die in trying to make a living where crops grew no longer.

Our current version of agricultural civilization is no different in this regard either. We rely heavily on agriculture to grow food, which in turn relies heavily on predictable rainfall patterns and a nutrient rich soil to grow crops. The only reason there are this many of us on the planet at the moment is that we’ve managed to break — or at least weaken — this link between land food and water, and the bond between locations where food is grown and where it’s consumed. At least, for a while.

The magic ingredient — of course — was energy, and in our current civilization’s case this meant: fossil fuels. As I wrote many times, energy is the economy, but not only that: energy is agriculture. There is an intricate and inseparable connection between food, water and energy.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Water Worries and Drought Tolerant Plants

August 24, 2022

Water Worries and Drought Tolerant Plants

A Summer Update from Shipka

This summer has been incredibly hot and dry, and even some of the older and more established trees have looked under strain. With increasing periods of hot and dry weather and pressure on both the mains water supply and our perennial source from the river, designing our gardens to be as resilient as possible seems the best way forward. During this post, we’ll be looking at the challenges we’ve faced this season with our usual water supply and take a look at some useful drought tolerant plants that have faired well in dry and hot conditions.

Our project is located in the town of Shipka on the foothills of the Balkan mountains in central Bulgaria. As such our gardens have a gradient that means we can benefit from a gravity-fed perennial water source, a local mountain stream. The stream water can be diverted into purpose-built cement channels that run down the sides of many of the streets and under roads, making this water accessible for many households. It can also be diverted into the fields. It’s an incredible system although somewhat neglected. All of our gardens were designed to take advantage of this resource. In the image below you can see the main path of the stream through the mountain, and then the diversion created. The highlighted plot here is one of our gardens, Phronesis. There is approximately a 3m drop from the north to the south of the plot and the slope is more or less even from east to west.

The mountain stream can be diverted into the site from the north

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

European Corn Yields Expected To Plunge Amid Worst Drought In 500 Years

August 23, 2022

European Corn Yields Expected To Plunge Amid Worst Drought In 500 Years

Besides the news of record high electricity prices, a troubling new crop failure report about Europe’s upcoming harvest was published Monday. The bloc’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources forecasted corn yields could drop by nearly a fifth due to a devastating drought, according to Bloomberg.

Before we dive into the crop report, Europe’s centuries-old ‘hunger stones’ were recently revealed in the Elbe River, which runs from the mountains of Czechia through Germany to the North Sea. The stones date back to a drought in 1616 and read: “Wenn du mich siehst, dann weine.” That translates to “if you see me, then weep.”

The warning on the stones appears correct because the new crop report forecasts corn yields will drop 16% below the five-year average. That compares with a July forecast of an 8% decline.

The plunge in corn output could result in further food inflation. It will boost feed costs for livestock herds, adding to even more woes for farmers who are plagued with elevated diesel and fertilizer prices.

“Water and heat stress periods partly coincided with the sensitive flowering stage and grain filling,” according to the crop monitoring report. “This resulted in irreversibly lost yield potential.”

In late August, about half of Europe is under a drought warning. Crops, power plants, industry, and fish populations have been devastated by the heat and lack of rainfall. The European Commission Joint Research Centre warned earlier this month the ongoing drought is the worst in 500 years as vast amounts of farmland turn to dust.

Heading into the fall, western and central Europe face a very high risk of dry conditions over the next three months that could result in water shortages.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Hitler’s Scuttled Black Sea Fleet, Centuries-Old ‘Hunger Stones’ Emerge From Dry Riverbeds In Drought-Stricken Europe

August 21, 2022

Hitler’s Scuttled Black Sea Fleet, Centuries-Old ‘Hunger Stones’ Emerge From Dry Riverbeds In Drought-Stricken Europe

Extreme droughts across Europe are revealing thousands of years of lost history.

In some regions, centuries-old warning messages etched into boulders have been exposed. As StrangeSounds.org reports, these rocks – known as “Hungersteine” or “Hunger Stones”

One stone, embedded in the Elbe River, which runs from the mountains of Czechia through Germany to the North Sea, dates back to a drought in 1616, is once again visible in the dry riverbed.

The warning reads, “Wenn du mich seehst, dann weine” – “If you see me, weep.”

Source

“Hunger stones” like this one were used as “hydrological landmarks” across central Europe, NPR reported when the stones last surfaced during a 2018 drought.

These stones are “chiselled with the years of hardship and the initials of authors lost to history,” a team of Czech researchers wrote in a 2013 study.

“The basic inscriptions warn of the consequences of drought. It expressed that drought had brought a bad harvest, lack of food, high prices and hunger for poor people.”

Europe’s current drought is certainly historic. As StrangeSounds.org goes on to note, the XIV century Mesta Bridge in Villarta de los Montes (Extremadura, Spain), a nice example of Mudéjar-Gothic civil engineering. Since 1956 it’s been covered by the waters of the Cijara Reservoir, but the drought has brought it back to light.

The remains of the Aquis Querquennis Roman castrum in Galicia, which is normally covered by the waters of the Lima River and the Concha reservoir. It dates back to the III century and was on the Via Nova.

As Italy faces “the most serious water crisis in the last 70 years,” a 450lb , World War II-era bomb was exposed in the dried up Po River bed…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Europe’s Nuclear & Hydropower Falter With Droughts

August 16, 2022

Europe’s Nuclear & Hydropower Falter With Droughts

As Europe looks to secure alternative energy sources to Russian gas in light of the war in Ukraine, Statista’s Anna Fleck warns, a new threat to energy security is stirring, this time from droughts.

The droughts hitting Europe are impacting everything from food to transportation to the environment.

In Italy, the River Po has fallen two meters below its normal levels, seeing rice paddy fields dry out. Meanwhile, Germany’s River Rhine has become so shallow that cargo vessels can’t pass through it fully loaded, pushing up shipping costs, and France’s Tille River, in the Burgundy region, is now a dried up bed covered in thousands of dead fish.

But Europe’s energy production has also been impacted. As Statista’s chart below shows, hydroelectric power has fallen some 20 percent since 2021. This partly comes down to the fact reservoirs have been drying up in countries such as Italy, Serbia, Montenegro and Norway. The latter, according to Bloomberg, usually a major hydroproducer, is even taking the steps to reduce exports in order to prioritize refilling its reservoir’s low water levels so the country can maintain domestic production.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Nuclear power too has fallen since 2021. One reason for this is that France has had to shut down several of its nuclear power plants because the rivers Rhone and the Garonne have been too warm to be able to cool down its reactors. France is 70 percent dependent on nuclear energy and is a key exporter of electricity, usually supplying Italy, Germany and the UK. It’s important to note here however, that other problems are troubling France’s nuclear fleet too. A significant number of the country’s power plants have had to be powered down recently due to malfunctions and maintenance issues, which had been delayed because of the pandemic. These combined reasons mean, according to Wired, that the country’s hydropower output is down nearly 50 percent.

“Worst I’ve Ever Seen”: Cotton Prices Soar After Historic USDA Cut Amid Megadrought

August 16, 2022

“Worst I’ve Ever Seen”: Cotton Prices Soar After Historic USDA Cut Amid Megadrought

US cotton prices continued to surge above the boom days of 2010-11 after a massive crop estimate cut by the USDA, shocking Wall Street analysts and traders, due primarily to a megadrought scorching farmland of Texas, according to Bloomberg.

Futures in New York for December delivery were up 4.5% to $1.1359 a pound and up more than 21% this month.

“I don’t think you can put a top on prices right now,” Louis Barbera, the managing partner for VLM Commodities, told Bloomberg.

“I have been going to Texas for more than ten years, and this is by far the absolute worst I have ever seen, said Barbera.

What Barbera is referring to is the drought situation in Texas. The long stretches of triple-digit temperatures and limited rainfall this summer have turned vast amounts of farmland to dust, hurting cotton farmers in the South Plains of West Texas.

Last Friday, the USDA’s bigger-than-expected cut to domestic cotton crop stunned many on Wall Street. Crop output plunged to 12.57 million bales, the lowest in a decade. The cut also pushed down the US from the world’s third-largest producer to the world’s fourth.

Barbera said the western Texas region (around Lubbock and Lamesa), the epicenter of America’s cotton-growing belt, has “literally nothing” in fields that are just desert sand. He said fields that had drip irrigation were harvestable, but ones that weren’t weren’t salvageable.

How bad is the heat and drought in Texas? Outside of Amarillo, what was a cotton crop. pic.twitter.com/dp77GYUxOd

— 247AG (@247dotAg) July 22, 2022

“If cotton is not readily available from other sources, the scarcity of supply from the US could support prices globally, said Jon Devine, supply-chain economist for research Cotton Inc.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

A Horrifying Drought Is Causing Widespread Crop Failures Throughout The United States And Europe

August 16, 2022

A Horrifying Drought Is Causing Widespread Crop Failures Throughout The United States And Europe

We really are reaching a major crisis point. Thanks to soaring fertilizer prices, insane weather patterns and the war in Ukraine, global food supplies have been getting tighter and tighter. So we really needed a banner year for agricultural production in both the United States and Europe in 2022, and that is not going to happen. In fact, unprecedented drought is absolutely devastating crops all over the northern hemisphere. A lot of people are complaining about how high food prices are right now, but just wait. If some sort of a miracle doesn’t happen, agricultural production is going to be way below expectations in both the United States and Europe, and that is going to have very serious implications for 2023.

Let me start by talking about the nightmare that is starting to unfold in Europe.

According to CNN, it is now being projected that farmers in Italy have lost “up to 80% of their harvest” because the drought has become so severe…

In Italy, farmers in some parts of the country have lost up to 80% of their harvest this year due to severe weather anomalies, the Coldretti farming association said Thursday.

How are those farmers going to survive?

Many farmers in France are facing similar losses because they have only been receiving a fraction of the rainfall that they normally get…

In France, where an intense drought has hammered farmers and prompted widespread limits on freshwater use, there was just 9.7 millimetres (0.38 inches) of rain last month, Meteo France said.

That was 84 percent down on the average levels seen for July between 1991 and 2022, making it the driest month since March 1961, the agency added.

Crop failures in France would be a really, really big deal, because France is normally “the fourth-largest exporter of wheat” in the entire world…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Nothing Left In Pipes”: French Towns Rely on Water Truck Deliveries For Survival

August 12, 2022

“Nothing Left In Pipes”: French Towns Rely on Water Truck Deliveries For Survival

Severe drought conditions affect about 60% of the EU, and in France, dozens of municipalities have run out of water and relied on a fleet of trucks hauling fresh water for survival.

At least 100 towns and villages have run out of fresh water. The French government has stepped in to support these drought-stricken areas.

French environment minister Christophe Bechu said in dozens of municipalities, “there is nothing left in the pipes,” referring to freshwater systems that have run completely dry. He said the ‘historic’ crisis has resulted in the deployment of a fleet of trucks delivering water to areas in need.

Besides France, Spain, Italy, Germany, and the Netherlands are all facing water shortages and falling water levels on inland waterways (the situation on the River Rhine is one to follow). Drought conditions across 60% of the EU could have severe economic consequences, affecting energy production, agriculture, and river transportation.

Record heat across Europe has fueled “increased fire danger due to the lack of rain and the resulting dry vegetation, combined with high temperatures,” the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service noted.

In southwest France, a massive wildfire has scorched 14,000 hectares in just a few weeks, forcing the evacuation of thousands of people.

We’ve pointed out that French utility Electricite de France SA had to “reduce or halt nuclear output” because record-breaking heat on the Rhone and Garonne rivers made the water too hot to circulate through condensers and discharge back into waterways.

Meanwhile, French power prices are at a new record of over 600 euros per megawatt hour amid grid strains thanks to the lack of nuclear power generation amid heightened demand during heatwave.

The bad news is the persistent heat wave is forecasted to continue in parts of western and central Europe through the second half of August.

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