Home » Posts tagged 'default'

Tag Archives: default

Olduvai
Click on image to purchase

Olduvai III: Catacylsm
Click on image to purchase

Post categories

Olduvai
Click on image to purchase

Olduvai II: Exodus
Click on image to purchase

Olduvai
Click on image to purchase

Olduvai II: Exodus
Click on image to purchase

Olduvai
Click on image to purchase

Olduvai II: Exodus
Click on image to purchase

Olduvai
Click on image to purchase

Olduvai II: Exodus
Click on image to purchase

Olduvai
Click on image to purchase

Olduvai II: Exodus
Click on image to purchase

Olduvai III: Cataclysm
Click on image to purchase

Why the Coming Wave of Defaults Will Be Devastating

Why the Coming Wave of Defaults Will Be Devastating

Without the stimulus of ever-rising credit, the global economy craters in a self-reinforcing cycle of defaults, deleveraging and collapsing debt-based consumption.
In an economy based on borrowing, i.e. credit a.k.a. debt, loan defaults and deleveraging (reducing leverage and debt loads) matter. Consider this chart of total credit in the U.S. Note that the relatively tiny decline in total credit in 2008 caused by subprime mortgage defaults (a.k.a. deleveraging) very nearly collapsed not just the U.S. financial system but the entire global financial system.
Every credit boom is followed by a credit bust, as uncreditworthy borrowers and highly leveraged speculators inevitably default. Homeowners with 3% down payment mortgages default when one wage earner loses their job, companies that are sliding into bankruptcy default on their bonds, and so on. This is the normal healthy credit cycle.
Bad debt is like dead wood piling up in the forest. Eventually it starts choking off new growth, and Nature’s solution is a conflagration–a raging forest fire that turns all the dead wood into ash. The fire of defaults and deleveraging is the only way to open up new areas for future growth.
Unfortunately, central banks have attempted to outlaw the healthy credit cycle.In effect, central banks have piled up dead wood (debt that will never be paid back) to the tops of the trees, and this is one fundamental reason why global growth is stagnant.
The central banks put out the default/deleveraging forest fire in 2008 with a tsunami of cheap new credit. Central banks created trillions of dollars, euros, yen and yuan and flooded the major economies with this cheap credit.
They also lowered yields on savings to zero so banks could pocket profits rather than pay depositors interest. This enabled the banks to rebuild their cash and balance sheets– at the expense of everyone with cash, of course.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Puerto Rico Defaults On $2 Billion In Debt Payments

Puerto Rico Defaults On $2 Billion In Debt Payments

As expected, Puerto Rico will default on about $2 billion in debt payments Friday, including $780 million in constitutionally-backed general obligation bonds, as governor Alejandro Garcia Padilla has issued an executive order authorizing the suspension of payments. In addition, Garcia Padilla also declared states of emergency at the island’s biggest public pension – the Commonwealth’s Employee Retirement System – which is more than 99% underfunded, as well as the University of Puerto Rico and other agencies Reuters reports. The default will mark the first time a US territory has failed to pay on its general obligation bonds.

Under these circumstances, these executive orders protect the limited resources available to the agencies listed in these orders and prevents that these can be seized by creditors, leaving Puerto Ricans without basic services,” Garcia Padilla’s administration said in a statement.

The suspension of payments comes just as the Senate rushed a bill to President Obama that was signed on Thursday, and the bill will now allow Puerto Rico to access a bankruptcy-like debt restructuring process for its roughly $70 billion in debt. As Bloombergexplains, the next phase will now be for the US appointed control board to begin the restructuring negotiation process. The step allows Garcia Padilla to use cash that would otherwise go to investors to avert cuts to schools, policing and health care that Garcia Padilla said would extract a heavy toll on the island where nearly half of the 3.5 million residents live in poverty.

While creditors will now be left to battle it out in the courts, the default will leave large insurers of Puerto Rico’s bonds on the hook for payments. As CNBC reportsAssured Guaranty, Ambac and National, a wholly owned subsidiary of MBIA, collectively have more than $800 million in exposure to the total payments due Friday.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

2008 All Over Again

2008 All Over Again 

   Financial markets in the United States and worldwide face uncertainty and potential crisis after Britain voted to leave the European Union. (Sparkx 11)

Great Britain’s decision to leave the European Union has wiped out many bankers and global speculators. They will turn, as they did in 2008, to governments to rescue them from default. Most governments, including ours, will probably comply.

Will the American public passively permit another massive bailout of the banks? Will it accept more punishing programs of austerity to pay for this bailout? Will a viable socialism rise out of the economic chaos to halt further looting of the U.S. Treasury and the continued reconfiguration of the economy into neofeudalism? Or will a right-wing populism, with heavy undertones of fascism, ascend to power because of a failure on the part of the left to defend a population once again betrayed?

Whatever happens next will be chaotic. Global financial markets, which lost heavily on derivatives, are already in free fall. The value of the British pound has dropped by over 9 percent and British bank stock prices by over 25 percent. This decline has wiped out the net worth of many Wall Street brokerage houses and banks, leaving them with negative equity. The Brexit vote severely cripples and perhaps kills the eurozone and, happily, stymies trade agreements such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership. It throws the viability of NATO and American imperial designs in Eastern Europe and the Middle East into question. The British public’s repudiation of neoliberal economics also has the potential to upend the presidential elections. The Democratic Party will orchestrate a rescue of Wall Street if there is a call for a bailout. Donald Trump and the Republicans, by opposing a bailout, can ride popular revulsion to power.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Chinese Bankruptcies Surge More Than 50% In Q1; Worse To Come

Chinese Bankruptcies Surge More Than 50% In Q1; Worse To Come

Two months ago, when looking at the soaring number of bond issuance cancellations and postponements as calculated by BofA, we commented that it was only a matter of time before the long overdue tide of corporate defaults, held by for so many years by the Chinese government which would do anything to delay the inevitable, was about to be unleashed.

This prediction has indeed been validated and as the FT reports overnight, Chinese bankruptcies have surged this year “as the government uses the legal system to deal with “zombie” companies and reduce industrial overcapacity as part of a broader effort to restructure the economy.” In just the first quarter of 2016, Chinese courts have accepted 1,028 bankruptcy cases, up a whopping 52.5% from a year earlier, according to the Supreme People’s Court. Just under 20,000 cases were accepted in total between 2008 and 2015.

This is surprising because while China’s legislature had approved a modern bankruptcy law in 2007 it had barely been used for years, with debt disputes often handled through backroom negotiations involving local governments.  “Bankruptcy isn’t just about creditor-borrower relations. It also touches on social issues like unemployment,” said Wang Xinxin, director of the bankruptcy research centre at Renmin University law school in Beijing. “For a long time many local courts weren’t willing to accept them, or local governments didn’t let them accept.”

However, following the dramatic collapse of global commodity prices, which as we showed last October meant that more than half of local companies could not afford to even make one coupon payment with cash from operations, Beijing had no choice but to throw in the towel. And as the FT adds, “bankruptcy courts have been recruited into China’s drive for “supply-side reform”, which centres on reduction of overcapacity in sectors such as steel, coal and cement.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

NY Fed Warns about Booming Subprime Mortgages, now Insured by the Government

NY Fed Warns about Booming Subprime Mortgages, now Insured by the Government

“Astronomical” default rates and losses.

The New York Fed just warned about the ticking mortgage subprime time bombs once again being amassed, and what happens to them when home prices decline. But unlike during the last housing bust, a large portion of these time bombs are now guaranteed by the government.

Subprime mortgages are what everyone still remembers about the Financial Crisis. They blew up has home prices fell. Folks who thought they were “owners with equity” found out that they were just “renters with debt.”

And they dealt with it the best they could: forget the debt and the rent and stay until kicked out. Cumulative default rates on subprime mortgages spiked to 25% in 2007, according to the report. Banks ended up with the properties and collapsed. Mortgage backed securities based on these subprime mortgages imploded. Bond funds that held them imploded. All kinds of fireworks began. While subprime mortgages didn’t cause the Financial Crisis by themselves, they were an essential cog in a crazy machinery.

Now, the machinery is even crazier, subprime mortgages are even bigger, and mortgage-backed securities, chock-full with subprime, are hotter than ever. Only this time, the taxpayer is on the hook.

During the prior housing boom, from 2000 through 2005, government mortgage insurance programs covered less than 3% of all subprime mortgage originations, while private mortgage insurers covered over 20%.

But during the housing bust, private insurance of subprime mortgages dropped to essentially zero. And the government – through various programs by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA), and the USDA’s Rural Housing Service (RHS) – stepped in to pick up the baton, plus some, insuring subprime mortgages with a vengeance. By 2009, the government insured nearly 35% of new subprime mortgages. More recently, it still insured about 22% of new subprime mortgages.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Bondholders Stunned As Puerto Rico Finds $4.4 Billion In Outstanding Debt “Unconstitutional”

Bondholders Stunned As Puerto Rico Finds $4.4 Billion In Outstanding Debt “Unconstitutional”

After Puerto Rico defaulted on its $422 million debt payment in May, governor Padilla begged congress to step in and help out, which happened shortly thereafter when a House committee cleared legislation that provided Puerto Rico with a way forward on restructuring its debt.

As it turns out, on the day the House announced that it planned on taking up the Puerto Rico bill next week, a 17 member audit commission found that two debt issues worth $4.4 billion of the $72 billion in debt outstanding were unconstitutional.

Said otherwise, the government may now just declare the bonds invalid. It’s a handy development for governor Padilla, since the two debt issues were expected to default on July 1. Also helpful is the fact that it would be one less item for Padilla to worry about since he proposed a budget for 2016-2017 that provides for only $209 million of the $1.4 billion in current debt service cost.

As MarketWatch explains

An audit report published on Thursday suggests that debt-laden Puerto Rico may be able to void some of its borrowing because politicians exceeded constitutional debt limits and their own authority.

The report, shared with MarketWatch, states that some of Puerto Rico’s debt may have been issued illegally, allowing the government to potentially declare the bonds invalid and courts to then decide that creditors’ claims are unenforceable. The scope of the audit report, issued by the island’s Public Credit Comprehensive Audit Commission, covers the two most recent full-faith-and-credit debt issues of the commonwealth: Puerto Rico’s 2014 $3.5 billion general-obligation bond offering and a $900 million issuance in 2015 of Tax Refund Anticipation Notes to a syndicate of banks led by J.P Morgan.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Heretical Thoughts And Doing The Unthinkable

Heretical Thoughts And Doing The Unthinkable

Heresy!

The Dow rose 222 points on Tuesday – or just over 1% – and everyone was exuberant…but things have not turned out well since. We agree with hedge-fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller: This is not a good time to be a U.S. stock market bull.

Druckenmiller

Legendary former hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller at the Ira Sohn conference – not an optimist at present, to put it mildly.

Speaking at an investment conference in New York last week, George Soros’ former partner warned that…

“…higher valuations, three more years of unproductive corporate behavior, limits to further easing, and excessive borrowing from the future suggest that the bull market is exhausting itself.” 

But we promised to return to the scene of our crime today. In these pages, we recently committed heterodoxy… even heresy! We don’t know what got into us and we are deeply sorry for our misdoings, the remembrance of which is grievous unto us…

… but in a moment of weakness (oh, ye gods of democracy, why have you forsaken us?) we dared to question whether voting makes any damned sense. We concluded that it didn’t.

We don’t know the candidates well enough to know who is really better. We don’t have any idea what challenges the next president will face, nor which candidate would be better equipped to deal with them. We don’t know if the candidates believe what they say they believe or whether they will do what they promise to do.

We only know our vote, statistically, won’t make a bit of difference. And that we don’t want the “lesser of two evils.” And that we don’t feel any obligation to play this game! Dear readers canceled their subscriptions… and heated up their irons.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The real oil limits story; what other researchers missed

The real oil limits story; what other researchers missed

The underlying assumption in these models is that scarcity would appear before the final cutoff of consumption. Hubbert looked at the situation from a geologist’s point of view in the 1950s to 1980s, without an understanding of the extent to which geological availability could change with higher price and improved technology. Harold Hotelling’s work came out of the conservationist movement of 1890 to 1920, which was concerned about running out of non-renewable resources. Those using supply and demand models have equivalent concerns–too little fossil fuel supply relative to demand, especially when environmental considerations are included.

Virtually no one realizes that the economy is a self-organized networked system. There are many interconnections within the system. The real situation is that as prices rise, supply tends to rise as well, because new sources of production become available at the higher price. At the same time, demand tends to fall for a variety of reasons:

  • Lower affordability
  • Lower productivity growth
  • Falling relative wages of non-elite workers

The potential mismatch between amount of supply and demand is exacerbated by the oversized role that debt plays in determining the level of commodity prices. Because the oil problem is one of diminishing returns, adding debt becomes less and less profitable over time. There is a potential for a sharp decrease in debt from a combination of defaults and planned debt reductions, leading to very much lower oil prices, and severe problems for oil producers.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Puerto Rico Says Will Default Tomorrow, Begs Congress For Help “Or Else Crisis Will Get Worse”

Puerto Rico Says Will Default Tomorrow, Begs Congress For Help “Or Else Crisis Will Get Worse”

Update: PR Governor Padilla has spoken…
  • *PUERTO RICO GOVERNOR SAYS WON’T PAY DEBT TOMORROW
  • *PUERTO RICO GOVERNOR SAYS ISLAND WON’T PAY DEBT MONDAY
  • *PUERTO RICO GOVERNOR: GOVERNMENT SIGNED MORATORIUM BILL YESTERD
  • *PUERTO RICO NEEDS DEAL W/ CREDITORS AND/OR CONGRESS: GARCIA

And of course, demands a bailout…

  • *PUERTO RICO GOVERNOR CALLS ON U.S. CONGRESS, PAUL RYAN FOR HELP

And then threatens…

  • *CRISIS WILL GET WORSE IF U.S. CONGRESS DOESN’T HELP: GARCIA
  • *PUERTO RICO GOVERNOR CONCLUDES REMARKS TO COMMONWEALTH

As we detailed earlier, It’s D-Day in Puerto Rico.As Bloomberg reports, investors are finding little comfort in the Puerto Rico Government Development Bank’s efforts to strike a last-ditch agreement with creditors to soften the blow of a default this weekend. The bonds that mature today (May 1st) have crashed to just 20c (disastrously below the 36-cent recovery rate the commonwealth proposed in March).

It appears investors are not buying what Puerto Rico is selling and prefer to dump the bonds than hold out in hope of a ‘deal’…

A default on the $422 million due today is “virtually certain,” S&P Global Ratings said April 11.

No matter which route Puerto Rico takes, credit-rating companies see a default as inevitable. Moody’s Investors Service analysts said last week that any non-payment, even if it’s agreed to by creditors, constitutes a default in their eyes. S&P Global Ratings said a distressed-debt exchange or temporarily withholding interest is synonymous to default.
But as Bloomberg reports, Puerto Rico said its Government Development Bank, which is operating in a state of emergency to preserve its dwindling cash, reached an agreement with some credit unions to delay $33 million of bond payments as the commonwealth rushes toward a potential historic default.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Corporations Are Defaulting On Their Debts Like It’s 2008 All Over Again

Corporations Are Defaulting On Their Debts Like It’s 2008 All Over Again

Corporate Debt Defaults - Public DomainThe Dow closed above 18,000 on Monday for the first time since July.  Isn’t that great news?  I truly wish that it was.  If the Dow actually reflected economic reality, I could stop writing about “economic collapse” and start blogging about cats or football.  Unfortunately, the stock market and the economy are moving in two completely different directions right now.  Even as stock prices soar, big corporations are defaulting on their debts at a level that we have not seen since the last financial crisis.  In fact, this wave of debt defaults have become so dramatic that even USA Today is reporting on it

Get ready to step over some landmines, investors. The number of companies defaulting on their debt is hitting levels not seen since the financial crisis, and it’s not just a problem for bondholders.

So far this year, 46 companies have defaulted on their debt, the highest level since 2009, according to S&P Ratings Services. Five companies defaulted this week, based on the latest data available from S&P Ratings Services. That includes New Jersey-based specialty chemical company Vertellus Specialties and Ohio-based iron ore producer Cliffs Natural. Of the world’s defaults this year, 37 are of companies based in the U.S.

Meanwhile, coal producer Peabody Energy (BTU) and surfwear seller Pacific Sunwear (PSUN) this week filed plans for bankruptcy protection. Shares of Peabody have dropped 97% over the past year to $2 a share and Pacific Sunwear stock is off 98% to 4 cents a share.

A lot of big companies in this country have fallen on hard times, and it looks like bankruptcy attorneys are going to be absolutely swamped with work for the foreseeable future.

So why are stock prices soaring right now?  After all, it doesn’t seem to make any sense whatsoever.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Peak Negative-Interest-Rate Absurdity? Hilarity Ensues

Peak Negative-Interest-Rate Absurdity? Hilarity Ensues

Among the goodies: “reverse Yankee” landmines.

When a central bank like the ECB imposes negative interest rates along with QE on its bailiwick, funny things start to happen.

Investors become so eager to get any kind of visible yield that they will do the craziest things. They’re now chasing €3 billion of 50-year bonds that the French government placed today. The yield? 1.916%.

These 50-year bonds are bought by institutional investors who, in normal times, would have been institutionalized.

The impact of negative interest rates isn’t limited to the bailiwick where they’re imposed. These yield-desperate investors will go anywhere to get some yield. They’re now scrambling to get their hands on Argentina’s new dollar-denominated bonds: $15 billion spread over maturities of five, 10, and 30 years, expected to come to market next week.

This is a country that has spent 75 of the last 190 years in default, including 2013-15, 2000-04, and 1980-92. The next default might be ten years down the road. Since Argentina cannot default on those bonds via devaluation of the peso, it will have to default on them in the classic Argentine way.

But investors need the yield now, and to heck with the risk of default. They’re hoping they can dump these things – or at least move on to the next job – before the government pulls the plug.

Yet there are a few things that the noble combination of negative interest rates and QE has not been able to accomplish.

Consumers, whether in the Eurozone, Japan, or other NIRP countries, are inexplicably leery of becoming even bigger debt slaves by borrowing to consume. And those who try it by running up their credit cards find that negative interest rates, or even low rates, haven’t made it that far.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

SocGen: “Now We Know Why The Fed Desperately Wants To Avoid A Drop In Equity Markets”

SocGen: “Now We Know Why The Fed Desperately Wants To Avoid A Drop In Equity Markets”

With the ECB now unabashedly unleashing a bond bubble in Europe of which it has promised to be a buyer of last resort with the stronly implied hint that European IG companies should issue bonds and buy back shares, and promptly leading to the biggest junk bond issue in history courtesy of Numericable, it will come as no surprise that the world once again has a debt problem.

For the best description of just how bad said problem is we go to SocGen’s Andrew Lapthorne, one of last few sane analyzers of actual data, a person who first reveaked the stunning fact that every dollar in incremental debt in the 21st century has gone to fund stock buybacks, and who in a note today asks whether “central bank policies going to bankrupt corporate America?”

His answer is, unless something changes, a resounding yes.

Here are the key excerpts:

Sensationalist headlines such as the one above are there to grab the reader’s attention, but the question is nonetheless a serious one. Aggressive monetary policy in the form of QE and zero or negative interest rates is all about encouraging (forcing?) borrowers to take on more and more debt in an attempt to boost economic activity, effectively mortgaging future growth to compensate for the lack of demand today. These central bank policies are having some serious unintended consequences, particular on mid cap and smaller cap stocks.

Aggressive central bank monetary policies have created artificial demand for corporate debt which we think companies are exploiting by issuing debt they do not actually need. The proceeds of this debt raising are then largely reinvested back into the equity market via M&A or share buybacks in an attempt to boost share prices in the absence of actual demand.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Former IMF Chief Economist Admits Japan’s “Endgame” Scenario Is Now In Play

Former IMF Chief Economist Admits Japan’s “Endgame” Scenario Is Now In Play

Back in October 2014, just after the BOJ drastically expanded its QE operation, we warned that the biggest risk facing the BOJ (and the ECB, and the Fed, and all other central banks actively soaking up securities from the open market) was a lack of monetizable supply. We cited Takuji Okubo, chief economist at Japan Macro Advisors in Tokyo, who said that at the scale of its current debt monetization, the BOJ could end up owning half of the JGB market by as early as in 2018. He added that “The BOJ is basically declaring that Japan will need to fix its long-term problems by 2018, or risk becoming a failed nation.”

Which is why 17 months ago we predicted that, contrary to expectations of even more QE from Kuroda, we said “the BOJ will not boost QE, and if anything will have no choice but to start tapering it down – just like the Fed did when its interventions created the current illiquidity in the US govt market – especially since liquidity in the Japanese government market is now non-existent and getting worse by the day.”

As part of our conclusion, we said we do not “expect the media to grasp the profound implications of this analysis not only for the BOJ but for all other central banks: we expect this to be summer of 2016’s business.”

Since then, the forecast has panned out largely as expected: both the ECB and BOJ, finding themselves collateral constrained, were forced to expand into other, even more unconventional methods of easing, whether it be NIRP in the case of the BOJ, or the outright purchases of corporate bonds as the ECB did a month ago.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

KKR’s Chilling Message about the “End of the Credit Cycle”

KKR’s Chilling Message about the “End of the Credit Cycle”

“Opportunities in Distressed Assets” as current investors get crushed

After seven years of “emergency” monetary policies that allowed companies to borrow cheaply even if they didn’t have the cash flow to service their debts, other than by borrowing even more, has created the beginnings of a tsunami of defaults.

The number of corporate defaults in the fourth quarter 2015 was the fifth highest on record. Three of the other four quarters were in 2009, during the Financial Crisis.

At stake? $8.2 trillion in corporate bonds outstanding, up 77% from ten years ago! On top of nearly $2 trillion in commercial and industrial loans outstanding, up over 100% from ten years ago. Debt everywhere!

Of these bonds, about $1.8 trillion are junk-rated, according to JP Morgan data. Standard & Poor’s warned that the average credit rating of US corporate borrowers, at “BB,” and thus in junk territory, hit a record low, even “below the average we recorded in the aftermath of the 2008-2009 credit crisis.”

The risks? A company with a credit rating of B- has a 1-in-10 chance of defaulting within 12 months!

In total, $4.1 trillion in bonds will mature over the next five years. If companies cannot get new funds at affordable rates, they might not be able to redeem their bonds. Even before then, some will run out of cash to make interest payments.

A bunch of these companies are outside the energy sector. They have viable businesses that throw off plenty of cash, but not enough cash to service their mountains of debts! Among them are brick-and-mortar retailers that have been bought out by private equity firms and have since been loaded up with debt. And they include over-indebted companies like iHeart Communications, Sprint, or Univsion.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Going Into Debt to Invest Into Debt…

Bankers Hate It When You Hold Cash

In an extraordinary turn of events, last week we were contacted by our local bankers. Since we were turned down for a mortgage in 1982 (our business finances were thought to be “too shaky”), we have had little truck with them. We pay cash. They mind their own business.

cash-reserves1Too many Benjamins!     Photo credit: Andrew Magill / Flickr

But for the first time we can recall, not just one but three suits came to visit. Personable and intelligent, they were worried when they saw how much cash we were keeping on hand. No kidding. They came to visit to propose ways we could “put it to use.”

“You really should take some of that cash and invest it in municipal bonds” was the motion on the table.

“What if the municipalities can’t pay?” we asked.

“Don’t worry about that. Historically, the odds of default are extremely remote,” one of them answered.

“But what if interest rates turn up? Wouldn’t the default rate go up?”

“Well, maybe. But we keep the maturities short and invest only in the most creditworthy municipalities. The risk is very low.”

“Oh… but what if we just need some cash.”

“No problem. We’ll give you a line of credit.”

“Let me get this straight. You’re proposing to put me into debt so that I can keep my money invested in somebody else’s debt?”

“Uh… well… yes… and we’ll charge you less interest than you will earn from the municipal bonds.”

“Wait. You can earn a fee for putting my money in bonds… and earn another fee for lending me money… and I still end up ahead?”

“Yes. We just try to find ways to help clients with their financial needs.”

“Oh.”

peopleofpuertoricopublicimprovbondvigIf unlucky, you’ll end up with one of these…     Image via scripophily.net

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai II: Exodus
Click on image to purchase

Olduvai
Click on image to purchase

Olduvai II: Exodus
Click on image to purchase

Olduvai III: Cataclysm
Click on image to purchase