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The End Of Cheap Debt: The Fall & Rise Of Interest Rates

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The End Of Cheap Debt: The Fall & Rise Of Interest Rates

Perhaps the greatest single trend impacting the next decade

Total debt (public + private) in America is currently at a staggering $67 trillion.

That number has been rising fast over the past 47 years, following the US dollar’s transformation into a fully-fiat currency in August of 1971.

Perhaps this wouldn’t be such a big concern were America’s income, measured by GDP, growing at a similar rate. But it’s not.

Growth in debt has far outpaced GDP, as evidenced by this chart:

In 1971, the US debt-to-GDP ratio was 1.48x. That’s roughly the same multiple it had averaged over the prior century.

But today? That ratio has spiked to to 3.47x, more than doubling over just 4 decades.

There are many troubling conclusions to draw from this, but here’s a simple way to look at it: It’s taking more and more debt to eke out a unit of GDP growth.

Put in other words: the US economic engine is seizing up, requiring increasingly more effort to function.

At some point — quite possibly some point soon — the economy will no longer be able to grow because all of its output must be used to service the ballooning debt load rather than future investment.

Accelerating this point of reckoning are two major recent trends: rising interest rates and the end of global QE.

Why? Because much of the recent explosion in debt has been fueled by central bank policy:

  • Interest rates have been on a steady decline since the 1980s, making debt increasingly cheaper to issue and to service.
  • Since 2008, central banks have been voracious buyers of debt. Countries/companies have been able to borrow $trillions, enabled (both directly and indirectly) by these “buyers of last resort”.

But both of those trends are ending, fast.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

How Cheap Debt Avoids Countries Of Going Bankrupt

How Cheap Debt Avoids Countries Of Going Bankrupt

margin-debt-trading-stocks

It’s not a secret the cheap debt policy from the European Central Bank has really helped out several European countries to keep the government finances under control. Well, more or less, as several members of the Eurozone are still running huge budget deficits.

Inflation Rate 4

Source: European Commission

When the ECB was created, its main ( and sole) mission was to keep an eye on the monetary policy in the Eurozone and to ensure price stability. The focus was on the inflation rate, which should be approximately 2% as that was thought to be ideal in the longer term. In order to keep the economy going and to boost the inflation rate, the ECB has started an asset purchase program just a few years ago. This would allow the Central Bank to pump more liquidity into the system.

Interest Rate 3

Source: ECB.europa.eu

This plan was expected to have a ‘trickle down’ effect, but in reality most of the cash has been sticking to the wrong fingers. Banks and asset managers are benefiting, but the common man on the street doesn’t notice any benefit.

Au contraire, as the requirements for mortgages are becoming more strict, and you can just forget about easy access to credit cards or personal loans.

So let’s be clear, the low interest rate isn’t serving any other purpose than to make the institutions rich.

And we aren’t talking about a few billion and not even about a few hundred billion euro, as you can see on the next chart. The counter is at in excess of 1.6 trillion… and counting.

Interest rate 1

Source: Royal Bank of Canada

But perhaps more important, it also avoids the annual government budgets to fall off a cliff. In fact, even Jens Weidmann, one of the most fierce opponents of the buyback program, now expects the ECB to continue the purchase program.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Look Out Below: Corporate Debt In Emerging Markets Has QUADRUPLED Since 2004

Look Out Below: Corporate Debt In Emerging Markets Has QUADRUPLED Since 2004

Governments have – of course – dramatically increased their debt since 2008 to fund questionable actions.

But 141 years of history shows that excessive private debt in and of itself can cause depressions.

American corporations are piling on record amounts of debt. And see this.

Private debt has also gone absolutely ballistic in China recently.

But it’s not just the U.S. and China …

The Telegraph reports today:

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) … said corporate debts in emerging markets ballooned to $18 trillion (£12 trillion) last year, from $4 trillion in 2004 as companies gorged themselves on cheap debt.

It said the quadrupling in debt had been accompanied by weaker balance sheets, making companies more vulnerable to US rate rises.

What could possibly go wrong?

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