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A New Era Of Geopolitical Risk In Global Oil Markets

A New Era Of Geopolitical Risk In Global Oil Markets

City

Amid never ending talk and speculation over how many more barrels of Iranian oil will be removed from global markets once sanctions slated to hit Iran’s oil production on November 6 take effect, some are claiming that geopolitical factors have driven the market just as much as supply fundamentals.

At Russia Energy Week in Moscow last week, both Saudi and Russian energy ministers saidthey see rising geopolitical risk as driving the recent oil price increase at a time when there is sufficient supply in the market. Of course, the notion of sufficient supply will be tested soon, as will both Saudi Arabia’s and OPEC’s spare production capacity will be called on to maintain this supply.

“Prices are continuing to rise and I think that proves the point that it is not the fundamentals of oil supply and demand that is behind this price increase,” Saudi energy minister Khalid al-Falih said on Thursday during the conference.

“The market has a strong influence,” he added. “Financial investors, speculators, sentiment, future expectations. The true elephant in the room is geopolitics. That has all combined to feed the market frenzy.”

Following al-Falih’s cue, Russian energy minister Alexander Novak agreed that geopolitical risks were having a disproportionate impact on global oil prices, which have recently breached new four-year highs.

On Friday, global oil benchmark London-traded Brent crude futures dipped slightly but still settled at a robust $84.33 per barrel, a price point that could arguably mark the beginning of supply disruption in developing economies where a strong U.S. dollar and rising oil prices are already creating economic woe, especially in Asia, including the Philippines, Vietnam and India.

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