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Oil Surges, 10Y Yield Back Over 3%, Futures Jump In Iran Deal Fallout

For those curious what the fallout from the US withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear deal looks like in the capital markets, the answer is as follows: higher US stock futures, a stronger dollar (at least initially, the greenback has since turned slightly negative) ahead of a $25BN 10Y auction (which may carry the first 3.00% cash coupon in almost 7 years), and perhaps critically, a 10Y Treasury yield rising back above 3.00% again.

But the most closely watched response was how oil would react, and sure enough the bulls have enjoyed the upper hand for now with WTI reversing Tuesday’s “fake CNN news” inspired slump to briefly surpass $71 per barrel, a new 4 year high, while Brent nudged $77 as the market came to terms with a U.S. message that buyers of Iranian crude have six months to curb their purchases.

Oil’s rise has been predicated by fresh concerns what the US withdrawal from the Iran deal means for oil markets: while Trump warned sanctions will be extremely strong for Iran, and any nations collaborating with it, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said the US will be working with allies on a comprehensive deal, also states that firms can seek waivers or special licenses to operate in Iran, sending conflicting messages. Meanwhile, the Iranian parliament is set to vote on “proportional and reciprocal” action vs. the US after leaving the nuclear pact, while the Iranian deputy oil minister says the nuclear deal can exist without the US.  Meanwhile, UBS estimates that sanctions could lead to the reduction of Iran oil exports by 200-500k BPD over the next 6 months, although both China and India have said they will continue importing Iranian oil.

In global markets, the MSCI Asia Pacific index started off on the wrong foot, dropping 0.3% on weakness in Japan and China, however, sentiment reversed when Europe opened, and the Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose a fourth day as energy companies surged, while US equity futures were trading solidly in the green.

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