Many economists suggest China is on the cusp of significant growth in domestic consumer demand as China shifts from exporter to consumer. These economists postulate that rising domestic demand coupled with continued growth as the global exporter will push both China and the global economy into high gear. China suggests that it will achieve 6.5% annual GDP growth. However, I’ll briefly show why none of these outcomes is remotely likely.
Problem #1- China as Consumer:
According to the UN data, China’s 15-40yr/old childbearing population peaked in 2005 and has been rapidly shrinking since. Since ’05, China’s population capable of producing more Chinese has fallen by 83 million persons or a 14.3% decline. By 2030, China’s childbearing population will have declined by 157 million or a 27% reduction of those capable of childbirth (no estimate here…this is simply moving the existing population forward in adulthood). Couple a massive decline in the childbearing population and the ongoing negative birthrate and serious depopulation (particularly among the rural regions) is not only possible but growing more likely. Minor increases in wages will be no match for the massive declines in the consumer base.
The chart below shows China’s total 15 to 40 year old population (in blue) and the annual change (in red).
As for China’s 40 to 65 year old population, peak annual growth is well in the rear view mirror but one final bump in population growth remains before depopulation ensues. However, the mild acceleration in growth will be more than offset by the declining 15 to 40yr/olds (chart below).
Simply put, China has seen peak domestic consumption and peak demand. The impact of large, growing declines in the consumer base are only being masked by massive central monetization and wasteful misallocation of resources. That misallocation has resulted in China’s massive surge in energy consumption.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…